根据国际权威机构IPCC 1990年对21世纪全球海平面上升的最佳估计值(0.66m)和本区地壳沉降速率以及地面沉降趋势,确定下一世纪末长江口相对海面上升1.0m左右.在此基础上,预测了相对海面上升对海岸工程、交通水利设施、湿地损失、洪涝灾害及盐水入侵的影响.

As a worldwide authoritative organization, IPCC forecasted in 1990 that the world’s sea level would most probably rise by 0.66m by the end of the 21st century. Combined with the local depression caused by the sink of the earth’s crust and the human activity, the relative sea level in the Changjiang River estuary will rise by about 1. 0m during the same period. Based on this figure, the article forecasted the impacts of sea level rise on the safety coefficient of coastal structures and civil facilities, loss of wetlands, flood disaster as well as salt water intrusion. The results show that: a)40% as large as the present engineering mass should be added to the coastal structures in order to maintain the safety coefficient; b)a dynamic loss of 60 km of wetlands, as much as 15% of the present total area, would be caused; c)to hinder the increase in flood disaster dynamic capacity to drain water must incease by at least 34times as large as the present; d)to maintain the present navigation conditions, about 100 million yuan(RMB)is needed to reconstruct over 3000 bridges and 30 sluices; and e)the disastrous salt water intrusion caused by the sea level rise could be conteracted by increase in water discharge from the Three Gorge Reservior in the dry season.