利用1961～1990年青藏高原地区48个台站的气温、降水资料,通过EOF展开,将气温序列向前延长至1901年,在此基础上分析了高原地区当代气候变化的总体特征,同时结合GCM模拟结果,讨论了高原气候对全球变暖的响应。结果表明,本世纪以来青藏高原地区气温变化的总趋势是上升的,最近30a高原地区的降水总体上有增加的趋势,气温和降水的变化似乎与大气CO2含量增加所引起的温室效应增强有关。
On the basis of monthly temperature and precipitation data of 48 stations of the Qinghai Xizang Plateau from 1961 to 1990, the temperature data are extended backward to 1901 with an EOF method, microscopic characteristics of the contemporary climatic change over the plateau are analyzed, and the response of the plateau climate to the global warming is discussed in combination with GCM simulated output. The results show that the plateau climate, overall, has been warming for this century, that the precipitation change has generally been increasing in recent 30 years, and that these climatic trends seem to be related to the enhanced greenhouse effect induced by increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
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