四川省的耕地地力以土壤质量系数衡量,多数在0.70以下。其中在0.70以上的一、二、三等耕地面积为278.17万hm²,占全省耕地面积(第二次土壤普查面积)的42.5%。而四等及其以下的中低产田土占过半数。四川省耕地粮食作物生产潜力,按第二次土壤普查耕地面积计算为10 715.986×10⁷ kg。按现有耕地面积(2001年)计算为6 981.757×10⁷ kg。按耕地最大生产潜力,在2040年后,四川省的粮食产量与人口需求间将出现亏缺,分别以线性模型和指数模型预测,预计分别缺口粮食523.702×10⁷ kg和168.442×10⁷ kg,那时四川将超载人口386.34万人至1 201.20万人。按耕地现实粮食生产力(单产)计算的四川省耕地承载力,从2000年后,出现粮食缺口和人口超载。预计未来50年,粮食亏缺将在887.425×10⁷ kg至2 982.280×10⁷ kg,人口超载达到2 035.4万人至6 840.1万人。表明四川省的耕地超载、粮食危机将不可避免,形势是严峻的。

Cropland potential productivity in Sichuan Province is estimated by soil quality index. Most soil quality index is less than 0.70. The area of the first, second and third grade cropland is 185 447 ha and accounts for 42.5% of the total cropland in Sichuan, and the area of the fourth grade and others grade with low yield makes up more than 50% of the total (the second time general investigation of soil resource of China). The climate-soil productive potentiality of Sichuan are 10.7?10¹⁰ kg and 69.8? 10⁹ kg with the area cited from the second time general investigation of soil resource of China and statistic of 2001, respectively. According to the climate-soil productive potentiality of Sichuan, the food supply will fail to meet the people's need and will lack 52.4?10⁸ kg and 16.8?10⁷ kg using the linearity model and the exponent model to forecast the population and the area of cropland in 2040, the population of 3863400-12012000 will suffer from shortage of food. If using the actual production capacity to calculate, it is concluded that the population bearing capacity will be overloaded from 2000.In the next 50 years, 8874259-29822803000 kg of grain will be short and the population of 203654000-68401000 preson will be overloaded in Sichuan Province. The result showed that overloaded population-bearing capacity and the shortage of food will not be avoided and the situation will also be austere.