以高台绿洲为例,分析产业结构在历史各阶段的特点以及用灰色模型CM(1.1)加以预测,将绿洲划分为原始牧业绿洲(1300~121a B.C.),传统农牧绿洲(121 a B.C~A.D.2000 a),新型产业绿洲(A.D,2000 a以后),并指出绿洲产业化是其必然趋势.
Oasis is a huge system constructed by natural and human systems in historical stage. The oasis industrial structure stands for the developing level of the productive force, de-termines the function of oasis system and influences the development of the system finally. By analyzing characteristics of industrial structure of Gaotai oasis in the historical stage and predicting its change by grey model, namely GM (1,1), the author classifies the oasis as three types: primitive stockbreeding oasis (1300-121 a B.C.), traditional farming and stockbreeding oasis (121 a B. C.-A. D. 2 000 a), new type industrial oasis (A. D. 2 000 a--) and points out that industrialization of oasis is its positive trend.
1. 西北师大资源环境所.干早区地理研究.兰州:兰州大学出版社,1993. 18~19,140~160.
2. 陈仲全,等.干早气候.兰州:甘肃教育出版社,1991.140~144.
3. 中国自然资源研究会,等.中国干早半干早地区自然资源研究.北京:科学出版社,1988. 15~16.
4. 陈隆亨.河西地区水土资源及其合理利用.北京:科学出版社.1992. 127.
5. 刘亚传,等.干早区咸水资源利用与环境.兰州:甘肃科学技术出版社,1992.
6. 齐陈骏.河西史研究.兰州:甘肃教育出版社,1989. 12.
7. 甘肃省计划委员会.甘肃省农村经济发展第八个五年计划及十年规划.兰州,甘肃人民出版社,1992. 12~30.