通过建立的协调发展计算模式,对广州城市环境与经济协调发展的现状作了评价.采用灰色系统模型对2010年之前的广州城市环境与经济协调发展进行了预测.在此基础上提出若干实现环境与经济协调发展的调控对策和措施.

This article introduces the concepts of coordinated development and coordinated de-gree with a formula to calculate it. Calculations are made of the indexes of environment quality, economic development and coordinated development degree in Guangzhou dur-ing 1985-1990.Results obtained are that the coordinated degree is over 0.87; it was a fine coordinated degree in the period. The variational tendencies on coordiated develop-ment of urban environment and economy are forecast up to the year 2010 in Guangzhou by adopting formula G. M(1,1)on the basis of the policy of environment and economy for the moment and evaluation for the present urban environment and economic develop-ment. It’s considered that the coordinated degree of urban environment and economic development had been over 0.8 before 1992. Not only is the index of economic develop-ment close to 1(advanced world level for the moment),the index of environment and e-conomy in Guangzhou on the basis of the index of environment quality down to 0.37, but also coordinated degree of 0.64 will lower to middle level from 1993 to the end of this century. With economic high-speed development, coordinated degree will degrade to middle disorder by 2010.Therefore, some effective countermeasures have to be tak-en, and suggestions are made for the sake of accomplishing the coordinated development of urban environment quality and economic development in different periods while quick-ening the tempo of economic development. We have to increcase investment in environ-ment protection enterprises and strengthening the ability of administration before the end of this century. There should be more effective integrated control on the urban envi-ronment by rational adjustment and arrangement of urbanization and structure of indus-try in the beginning ten years of the next century.