本文从统计角度对我国东部早汾影响因子进行分析。结果表明,我国各区域旱涝主要影响因子是地球自转速度变化、太阳黑子数改变和ENSO等.其中ENSO影响最为广泛,在厄尼诺年或后一、二年,对早涝的影响尤其明显。上述因子对早涝的影响方式一般以后延相关,通过2一5年高频振动周期反映出来。

In the first paper listed in the references,the east China was divided into eight drought/flood regions.But we,taking earth rotation velocity,sunspots, southern oscillation,etc.as the influence factors,through step-by-step regression analysis and typical analysis,discusses drought/flood influence factors of the eight regions.On the basis of them,applying spectrum analysis,we calsulated cycles of every influence factors variation and cycles of drought/flood variations of every region as well as cycles of vibration between them. The results indicate that the drought/flood influence factors of the east China are southern oscillation,earth rotation velocity,etc.Specially,the influence of EL Nino is more evident to drought/flood of most regions than that of others. Generally,there are good correlations between the year of EL Niono and the year of drought/flood of most regions.The ways that these factors influence drought/flood are shown in lad correlation,by 2-5-year high-frequency vibration cycle.