为了满足对自然灾害预测不断增长的紧迫要求,泥石流风险评价成为帮助决策过程重要的基础工具之一。即使泥石流风险性各组分的评价很困难,但地理信息系统可辅助提出这种风险性制图的有关方法。我们以云南省为研究区, 选取6个成因因子参与泥石流危险度敏感性分析,通过将研究区易损性评价图与危险性评价图叠加分析,编制出云南省泥石流风险评价图。该图描述了在现有自然条件和人类活动下的泥石流风险敏感区。研究成果为全面反映灾情,确定减灾目标,优化防御措施,进行减灾决策提供了重要依据。
To satisfy the increasingly urgent demand for prediction of natural disasters, risk assessment is one of the fundamental tools for helping the decision-making process. Even though individual components of debris flow risk are difficult to be accessed, the availability of geographic information systems helps in proposing pertinent methods for the mapping of such risk. This paper describes the systematic methodology used to establish a GIS capable of identifying and quantitatively rating areas of debris flow risk. In this study we elected 6 causal factors from the initial set for susceptibility analysis of hazardous degree in Yuannan Province as study area. By overlaying vulnerability map of the study area to hazard map, debris flow risk map was created, which depicts relative risk susceptibility of areas to debris flows under existing natural conditions and human activities. The proposed method for debris flow risk assessment by geomorphologists is one of the most important methods to show hazardous situation, assure objectives of disaster-reduction, optimize prevention and control measures.
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