在建立城市生态环境评价模型,模拟预测城市化过程中引起的土地效益、社会经济发展与生态环境动态变化过程基础上。运用遥感影像解译技术,对城市扩张引起的城市土地利用和土地效益动态变化进行定量分析。采用GIS工具分析城市环境空间分布方式;根据社会福利最大化和绿色GDP(即,GGDP)等理论模拟城市生态环境在不同社会经济情景之下的城市化响应。模型是以西安1996到2006年城市扩张作为案例研究分析,结果表明:在现有的条件下,理论上西安城市扩张最优是在2021;在社会经济不断发展的条件下,城市扩张引起的边际生态环境成本小于平均土地效益时才会增加土地效益;技术进步与创新可降低生态环境成本,使城市化水平提高。
This study aims to disclose dynamic relationship among land utility, economic growth and environmental efficiency by proposing an urbanization evaluation model.Firstly, we quantitatively describe the changes of land use and land utility from urban expansion by using the technology of remote sensing image interpretation.Secondly, environment efficiency is evaluated by analyzing of urban spatial distribution aided by GIS techniques.Finally, dynamic relationship between environment efficiency and socio-economic is simulated through proposed model which is constructed based on theories of the maximum social welfare and Green GDP (GGDP).The proposed model is applied to Xi’an, China.Our model is proved to be efficiency in simulating the dynamic relationship among land utility, economic growth and environmental efficiency through the analysis of urbanization process in Xi’an.Results show that urban expansion leads to land utility increasing under socio-economic development.However, land utility will increase only if the marginal eco-environment cost is not impaired by urban expansion; the improving technology and technological innovation can reduce the economical loss, and thus postpone the terminal of urbanization.The simulated result shows that the urbanization process in Xi’an will stop in 2021.
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