赵多平
, 孙根年
Zhao Duoping, Sun Gennian
中图分类号: F592
文献标识码: A
文章编号: 1000-0690（2017）12-1815-08
收稿日期: 2017-05-4
修回日期: 2017-10-19
网络出版日期: 2017-12-20
版权声明: 2017 《地理科学》编辑部 本文是开放获取期刊文献，在以下情况下可以自由使用：学术研究、学术交流、科研教学等，但不允许用于商业目的.
基金资助:
作者简介:
作者简介：赵多平（1978-）,男,蒙古族,内蒙古鄂尔多斯人,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事旅游规划与管理及旅游经济运行的教学与研究。E-mail:zdp@nxu.edu.cn
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摘要
以宁夏与阿拉伯国家为例,提出了入境旅游与贸易互动机理与路径假设,采用结构方程方法,对宁夏与阿拉伯国家的入境旅游与贸易的微观互动机理与路径关系进行了实证研究。结果发现：① 旅游与贸易互动路径假设均在1%或5%的置信水平上得到了验证,即关系链接对知识关联有正向路径影响,商贸关联对知识关联和广告效应有正向路径影响,信息传播对广告效应有正向路径影响。商贸关联、广告效应以及知识关联对商贸行为有正向路径影响。② 主要存在商贸关联引发商贸行为的直接路径和两条间接路径关系：关系链接→知识关联→商贸行为和信息传播→广告效应→商贸行为。③ 旅游与贸易的互动机理来看,文化关联拉近了心理感知距离,通过旅游构建了良好的人际关系和商贸关系,增加了贸易便利性、削减交易成本、消除商务距离、培育合作商机、构建商业纽带,开启了宁夏与阿拉伯国家之间的贸易规模的提升,尤其是出口贸易的迅猛增长。贸易的增长提高了旅游的便利化程度,进一步拉近了感知距离,消除了旅游成本,构建了中介关联,增加了更多旅游需求。
关键词：
Abstract
Through reviewing the literature and theory of tourism and trade relations at home and abroad, this article constructs an analytical framework and interactive mechanism model of tourism-trade interaction based on cultural association, explores the interaction mechanism and inducing pathway of trade and inbound tourism between the Ningxia and Arab countries. The results found that: 1) the tourism and trade interaction path hypothesis are verified at 5% confidence level, which has a positive impact on the relationship between the link path of knowledge association; trade association has a positive effect on the path of knowledge association and advertising; dissemination of information has a positive impact on the path of advertising effect. Business relevance, advertising effect and knowledge association have positive influences on trade behavior. 2) The direct path exists mainly between trade behavior and trade association,two indirect paths exist between relation linkage and trade behavior via Knowledge linkage, also between information dissemination and trade behavior via advertising effect; 3) The Interaction mechanism between tourism and trade of Ningxia and Arab countries has been found and verified. Also, the study found and validated the main path of tourism and trade interaction between Ningxia and the Arab countries: cultural and ethnic demand, business information transmission, the path of reducing transaction costs, the buying and selling market expansion, the construction of interpersonal relationship. Conversely path involves in improving the degree of convenience, being closer in perceived distance, eliminating transaction costs, building intermediary associations, and increasing tourism needs. The growth of trade has improved the convenience of tourism, further narrowed the perceived distance, eliminated transaction costs, constructed an intermediary relationship, and increased the demand for more tourism.
Keywords：
旅游与贸易互动关系是近10 a来国内外经济地理与旅游地理研究的新交叉性课题,引起了国内外学者的持续关注[1,2,3,4,5,6,7]。对国际商务旅游是国际贸易的必备构成这一创新思路的探究可以追溯到20世纪70年代,Keintz的研究结果表明了国际旅行与贸易之间存在一定的关联[8]。2000年Wilson等系统地提出“国际旅游与国际贸易是否存在关系”这一命题,并对澳大利亚与贸易伙伴国的旅游与贸易的协整和因果关系进行了验证,呼吁学术界应该对全球开放系统下的双边或多边旅游与贸易关系的研究内容和方法给予更多的关注和研究[9]。此后学者们通过对不同空间尺度和发展水平案例国家的实证研究验证了国际贸易和国际旅游之间存在的协整关系或者因果关系,即贸易促进旅游,旅游有助于激发国家间更紧密的贸易关系,进而引发更大规模的贸易[10,11]。还有研究估算出了旅游与贸易之间长期和短期的差异和相互影响程度[12],确认了两者关系相互影响所存在的时间滞后性[13]。少数学者通过构建引力模型,初步探讨了不同国家和区域由于经济发展水平、所处区位、和旅游资源类型的差异而导致了旅游与不同类型贸易之间相互作用关系的差异性[3,14],对部分特定案例国家中的旅游与贸易关系不明显或者不成立的动因进行了解释[16] 。国内学者也进行了相应的跟进研究[17,18,19],对进一步揭示旅游与贸易互动关系具有重要推动作用。从文献的梳理可以看出,目前从宏观对接关系视角上采取回归方程对两者关系进行的研究,有可能存在“伪回归”现象[20],其他对旅游与贸易互动关系的研究多数采用格兰杰因果检验和协整方法,从计量经济学角度进行辨识和验证,具有明显的经济学或统计学意义,但无法深入揭示旅游与贸易互动关系的微观行为特征和互动机理,未能从引发旅游与贸易的微观层面上来剖析旅游与贸易的互动过程,揭示旅游与贸易互动关系的形成机理和关联路径,而这是挖掘旅游与贸易互动关系对区域创新发展模式启示的关键。尽管部分研究中已经确认了商务旅游是启动和维持国际货物贸易和服务贸易的必须条件[1],对构建双边国际贸易关系具有启动作用,并且质性地提出了旅游与贸易相互引发的可能路径[1,3,9],但鲜有文献对这种引发路径和互动机理进行深入系统研究,更未对具有文化关联的亚类型互动关系进行研究,而不同类型旅游与贸易在互动程度、时间和机理上均存在较大差异,其演化过程和路径特征依然不明。因此,有必要通过构建旅游与贸易互动机理结构方程,选取正处于旅游与贸易互动初期的典型案例,深入探究旅游与贸易之间互动机理与路径的内在本质和规律。
宁夏作为中国唯一的省级回族自治区和最大的穆斯林聚居区,曾是2000多年前横贯亚欧的古丝绸之路上的重要节点,回族在本土化形成过程中与阿拉伯国家有着一定的文化联系,具有相近的宗教文化纽带和风俗习惯。正是基于这种双重属性,打造中国与阿拉伯国家的“宁夏通道就成为了复兴丝绸之路的重要路径”。依托中阿博览会等重要平台开启同中东阿拉伯国家和穆斯林世界的经贸合作,并以此构筑中阿经贸及旅游合作的“新平台”和“先行区”,开启了旅游与贸易互动关系构建的进程,具有明显的旅游与贸易互动典型性。因此,本文选取宁夏与阿拉伯国家作为研究案例,围绕商务旅游诱发贸易→贸易提高关注和兴趣→关注和兴趣推动贸易发展→贸易引发各类旅游发展这一逻辑演化的外在机制和内在机理,从微观层面通过构建结构方程来揭示旅游与国际贸易产生的关联路径关系和互动机理。
入境旅游者的空间位移是其旅游活动的重要特征之一,在此过程中不可避免地与旅游目地的人地系统发生互动作用,并且产生了人际交往、商贸关联、信息传播、知识溢出和广告效应等直接或者间接互动关系路径。通过梳理国内外国际旅游和国际贸易关系研究文献,结合对宁夏与阿拉伯国家旅游与贸易互动问卷调查中对入境旅游者如何进行信息识别、信息传递、关系链接、信息反馈的深度访谈和问询,提出阿拉伯入境旅游与贸易的主要引发路径及其互动机理,采用结构方程模型方法对入境旅游与贸易的微观机理和路径关系进行探究,揭示旅游者的不同类型旅游动机和商贸行为之间的路径关系,以此回答“旅游与贸易互动关系如何发生”的问题。
1.1.1 商贸关联
商贸关联是能够直接构建旅游与贸易的关联形式与活动类型。虽然现代信息和交流技术对商务旅游确有一定的影响,但仍然无法完全代替商务旅游[21]。中阿博览会是目前阿拉伯国家与中国尤其是西北穆斯林地区构建商贸关系的重要平台和进一步提升经贸水平的重要渠道。商务旅游者通过亲自前往面谈、确认销售意向、签订购销订单和构建合作协议是后续进一步进行贸易的重要环节,通过频繁地面对面沟通和交流,确认双方在未来商贸合作的计划[22]。还可以维持与客户之间的良好商贸关系,以此防止其转向与竞争对手的合作[23]。文献中确认了商务旅游形成的商贸关联有6个方面：激发销售、维持顾客、发展合作伙伴、激发创新、推动出口销售和发现商机[3],充分说明了商务旅游与商贸行为具有紧密的关联性。
1.1.2 信息传播
旅游作为一种与信息传播密切相关的产业和活动,对信息有天然的依赖性[24]。旅游者通过各种媒介获取旅游目的地相关信息,游后经过验证加工后传递给亲朋及周边熟人。国际旅游者的信息传播弥补了跨境商机中的信息缺失,有助于降低由于双方信息不对称而产生的额外成本,并且成为旅游者与当地居民双向传播信息的重要渠道 [25]。旅游者作为信息的携带者或者传播者,将本国的商品需求、景区景点信息、商务信息和商品价格等信息传递给合作方或者目的地居民,形成了双方对彼此有用需求信息的沟通[26]。因此,信息传播对商贸行为产生重要关联支撑。
1.1.3 关系链接
关系链接是指旅游者在目的地停留期间以某种行为或活动构建人与人以及人与商贸团体之间的合作关系或者关系网络的过程。其中最为典型的就是客户维护、发展合作关系等行为,微观企业和经济团体通过关系营销来识别、建立、维护和巩固企业与顾客及其他利益相关者的关系。杰克逊等人将买卖之间的关系界定为由结构纽带和社会纽带共同组成的关系链接,其中社会纽带就是指个人之间的关系（如亲朋好友）而建立起来的买卖双方的联系[27,28]。格朗鲁斯在1998年更清楚地指出了关系营销（关系链接）的3个维度：价值、交互和对话过程[29]。阿拉伯国家文化背景下的商贸关系构建中,人际关系具有重要作用[30],是形成商贸关系的前提和基础。因此,关系链接是商贸关系形成的主要路径之一。
1.1.4 广告效应
旅游广告效应是指旅游者的活动和行为及其购买的产品所引起周边人群和相关机构在产品购买和旅游决策中的宣传和示范效果[31]。旅游所具有的生产与消费的同时性,加重了跨国旅游中的信息不对称,广告宣传与亲朋推荐成为入境旅游者克服信息不对称和收集信息的主要渠道。一种是旅游者向目的地传递的自身服饰、饮食、生活方式以及居住地的相关信息,引发目的地居民及企业机构对旅游者使用产品及其居住地的兴趣和关注,继而产生购买国外类似产品和前往该国旅游的动机和效果。另外一种是旅游者在旅游结束后,将目的地国收集的产品、景区和社会经济信息以及自身的体验感知信息向亲朋好友及相关机构传递后,引起的兴趣关注、产品购买和激发旅游的影响和效果,成为影响跨国旅游需求的重要驱动因素[32]。
1.1.5 知识关联
知识关联（溢出）是指旅游者在文化体验和观光休闲娱乐过程中有意无意地向企业经营者或商务人员传递的偏好以及技术信息,后者以此进行产品改进、贸易投资和产品购销等行为而获得了收益。有研究认为旅游流是公司获取外部需求偏好信息的免费新渠道,即通过利用当期企业直接与旅游者的接触而获取消费者的偏好[33]。旅游者因其属于直接进入市场的外部顾客,这是本地企业的巨大机遇和优势,利用这样的方式,既是无法支付进入外部市场成本的小公司,依然可以分享到由旅游直接产生的信息溢出。这样可以提高他们的生产效率水平,并以此向整个地区扩展。Fallah等恰当地区分了知识关联和知识转移的含义,认为知识关联是知识无意识的传播, 而知识在人或组织之间有意识地交流则是知识转移[34]。旅游者传递了外部消费者的偏好信息,当地公司无需任何额外费用支出。因此,旅游者可以被视为一个重要的研发新产品和优化原产品,以提高公司效率水平和竞争力的重要信息来源。
在以上研究假设的基础上构建初始模型（图1）。模型中共包含6个因素(潜变量)：关系链接、商贸关联、信息传播、知识关联、广告效应和商贸行为,其中前3个因素是前提变量,后3个因素是结果变量,前提变量综合决定并影响着结果变量。
问卷采用5级李克特量表,依据理论假设设计了包括33个测量项目的问卷调查表,课题组于2012年9月~2015年10月,在召开中阿博览会（原中阿经贸论坛）期间,对前来参加博览会、各类会议、文化交流和探亲访友的入境旅游者展开问卷调查,主要发放地点选择在国际会展中心、银川国际机场、涉外宾馆和回族风情园等典型旅游景区。正式发放前对问卷进行了试调查,对初步设计的问卷进行了信度和效度测试,针对问卷中出现的部分问题进行了修正和调整。正式问卷调查采用随机拦访作答方式,答问后随即收回,累计共发放问卷650份,回收643份,回收率为98.92%,删除了回收问卷中的无效问卷,获得有效问卷602份,有效率93.62%,以此保证了样本量远远高于测量变量数量10~15倍的样本量的要求[35]。
阿拉伯游客的样本统计发现：① 阿拉伯游客性别比例严重失调,男性明显多于女性。男性占到91.29%,而女性只有8.71%,是阿拉伯国家入境宁夏旅游者的重要统计特征之一。主要是因为初期以商务旅游者为主,只有部分开放度较高的阿拉伯国家允许女性参与涉外商务活动。② 年龄构成“纺锤形”结构特征明显。以26~45岁为主体,占到总样本的60.97%,18~25岁和46~65岁的比例基本持平,分别为18.71%和18.39%。③ 收入方面,15 001~35 000美元的占比超过一半,达到52.90%,向两端均呈现递减状态,35 001~55 000美元占26.13%,略大于年收入少于15 000美元的占比（16.77%）,表明阿拉伯国家游客收入分化较为严重。④ 教育水平较高,具有大学水平和硕士研究生学历的样本为53.87%和22.90%,占比超过70%以上。⑤ 商务游客所属行业排在前3位的是文化艺术、民族食品、穆斯林用品,分别占比为46%、13%和13%,显示了宁夏与阿拉伯国家商务往来目前依然集中在与文化密切相关的领域。⑥ 首次到访比例高达65.16%,到访2次的为30.97%,3次到访的仅为3.87%,这与普遍意义上的商务重复到访并不一致,表明旅游者到访宁夏依然处在初期阶段。⑦ 到访目的方面,主要以商务洽谈、会议博览和文化交流为主,占样本总数的71.92%,其余为一般公务、技术交流合作、休闲观光和探亲访友。⑧ 获取信息的主要渠道为互联网、亲朋好友介绍和展销邀请,分别占比为39.03%、26.77%和23.87%。
采用SPSS17对关系链接、商贸关联、信息传播、知识关联、广告效应和商贸行为6个潜在变量的33个观测变量分别进行了信度检验,结果显示：各维度的Cronbach's Alpha值均大于0.8,表明各个测量指标的内部一致性较好,所采用数据的可信度较高。各个测度指标的剔除均不会引起总体克朗巴哈值明显增大,表明测度指标的结构效度较好。按照主成分分析法对数据的要求,对旅游动机测度指标进行KMO和巴特利球形检验(Bartlett检验),检验结果显示：旅游者测量KMO值分别为0.937和0.914,巴特利球形检验均达到显著性要求（Sig.=0.000）,表明旅游动机测度指标均适合做主成分分析,采取“四等分极限法”对数据进行旋转处理后提取主成分,特征根大于1的主要成分为6个,表明提取的6个潜在变量是合适的。
应用SPSS17.0与AMOS22.0软件相结合的方法对旅游动机与商贸行为之间的路径关系进行研究,具体步骤是：首先利用SPSS17.0软件将602份有效问卷输入SPSS数据库,并对其进行编码;最后将编码后的SPSS数据导入Amos22.0软件进行运算。对旅游动机与商贸行为结构关系的问卷数据进行了处理和检验,检验结果符合结构方程构建和分析的技术性参数要求,对模型参数及运算方式进行设置,采用最大似然估计进行模型运算,经修正后的游客旅游动机与商贸行为的关系模型结果输出的拟合度指数如表1所示。主要拟合优度指数均高于参考值,模型检验的自由度DF=122,卡方值为342.4,模型拟合指数NFI、IFI、CFI、TLI均接近或者在0.9以上;近似均方根残差RMSEA=0.073<0.08;PGFI为0.668>0.5,CHI/DF<3,表明模型的适配性较好,样本数据与假设模型之间的拟合度较高。
表1 模型拟合度指数
Table 1 The model fitting degree index
| 拟合指数 | GFI | AGFI | PGFI | NFI | IFI | TLI | CFI | PNFI | Chi/DF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 参考标准值 | ≥0.90 | ≥0.90 | >0.50 | ≥0.90 | >0.90 | >0.90 | >0.90 | >0.50 | <3 |
| 实际值 | 0.874 | 0.897 | 0.668 | 0.915 | 0.921 | 0.916 | 0.903 | 0.564 | 2.695 |
结构方程模型结果表明：本文提出的路径H1~H7的假设均在1%或5%的置信水平上得到了验证,即关系链接对知识关联有正向路径影响,商贸关联对知识关联有正向路径影响。商贸关联对广告效应有正向路径影响,信息传播对广告效应有正向路径影响。广告效应对商贸及重游有正向路径影响。知识关联对商贸及重游有正向路径影响。商贸关联对商贸及重游有正向路径影响。通过路径分析可以看出,旅游行为动机与商贸行为之间的路径关系显著,主要存在一条直接路径和两条间接路径,其中直接路径关系主要和商务旅游者前往宁夏参加中阿博览会的直接目的有关,而间接路径是由其参加的其他活动行为间接引发（表2）。
表2 理论模型的路径系数与假设结果
Table 2 The path coefficient and results of the model
| 变量间关系 | 标准化 估计值 | 检验 结果 | P值 |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA（广告效应）← MI（信息传播） | 0.146 | 支持 | ** |
| MK（知识关联）← MR（关系链接） | 0.593 | 支持 | *** |
| MK（知识关联）← MB（商贸关联） | 0.286 | 支持 | *** |
| MA（广告效应）←MB（商贸关联） | 0.414 | 支持 | *** |
| AI（商贸行为）← MB（商贸关联） | 0.194 | 支持 | ** |
| AI（商贸行为）← MA（广告效应） | 0.436 | 支持 | *** |
| AI（商贸行为）← MK（知识关联） | 0.196 | 支持 | *** |
3.1.1 直接路径关系
从图2可以看出,商贸关联→商贸行为,即商贸关联直接引发商贸行为。参加中阿博览会的商务入境人员通过两种直接与贸易关联的行为,订购（购买）某种商品（货物）和销售（出售）商品（货物）,形成了宁夏与阿拉伯国家之间的贸易订单,进而产生了出口贸易和进口贸易。另外在宁夏停留期间依然会继续使用本国部分商品,后续会产生更多宁夏从该国的进口贸易订单。并且在其参加博览会时,对新产品进行展示及试用,这些产生一次商务旅游的动机既是经贸关系的开始,也是反复产生商务旅游的动因,形成了商贸关联与商贸行为的直接路径关系。这种关联关系还具有较高的重复性和高频率,为了维持通过此平台构建起来的商贸关系,商务旅游者会定期重复往返于两地之间形成了回头客。
3.1.2 间接路径关系
从图2可以看出,两条间接路径关系分别是：（关系链接→知识关联→商贸行为）和（信息传播→广告效应→商贸行为）。
1） 关系链接→知识关联→商贸行为。人际关系阿拉伯构建商务关系的开始,入境旅游者在参加博览会和各类会议期间,通过与相关行业和公司的观点交流、结交朋友、维持顾客、寻找商业伙伴和访问高端名人或专家等关系链接行为,构建了个人关系和维持顾客,将与旅游目的地和商品产销地的信息传播至宁夏,同时将宁夏穆斯林偏好信息传递出去,同时也发现了商业机会,了解了产品偏好信息,收集了商业信息或知识信息,消除了中阿不对称商贸信息,以此产生更多商贸行为。这个间接路径也验证了阿拉伯国家重视人际关系的商贸运行规则。
2） 信息传播→广告效应→商贸行为。阿拉伯游客在旅游目的地旅游过程中通过学习新趋势,体验不同文化,探索未知事物,获得新产品信息和收集购买或销售信息的信息传播有意或无意产生了对宁夏主要旅游目的地和城市的广告效应,可以激发旅游者对宁夏乃至中国的良好感知,帮助其更好地了解当地的风土人情及经商环境,激起旅游者及其家属对宁夏的更多关注,或因此激发了在宁夏做生意或者进行经贸活动的兴趣,同时将其看到的一切景点景区或景物及体验过的特色产品与服务告诉自己的亲朋好友,这些都会激发自己或亲朋好友前往宁夏及其他周边省份重游或进行商贸活动。
图2 阿拉伯游客行为动机与商贸行为路径关系
e1~e35测量误差
Fig.2 The path relationship of the motivation and tourists’ trading behavior
旅游与贸易的促进机理主要表现在不同类型旅游对贸易的启动、维持和提升,商务旅游是启动和维持国际贸易的重要条件,商务旅游直接促进了中阿后续进出口贸易流,对于休闲观光及探亲访友游客,短暂的旅游活动帮助他们发现了后续贸易的商机,游客对本国商品的消费引发了到访国的进口行为。宁夏与阿拉伯国家之间的文化关联,拉近了心理感知距离,旅游有利于构建良好的人际关系和商贸关系,据此增加贸易便利性、削减交易成本、消除商务距离、培育合作商机、构建商业纽带,开启了宁夏与阿拉伯国家之间的贸易规模的提升,尤其是出口贸易的迅猛增长。另外相似的宗教信仰产生了穆斯林用品的需求,促进了此类贸易的快速增长,贸易的增长激发了更多商务游客赴宁夏寻找商机,诱发了其他国际贸易的增长。
贸易对旅游的促进机理主要表现在双边贸易的增长提升了双边合作的层次,双边签订免签和便利化协议,增开更多直航班机,直接提升了旅游便利性,削减了交易成本或旅游成本,利于行而乐于游。国际贸易需要商务旅游确认订单、签订合作协议和现场促销,跨国贸易往来增加了消费者对商品来源国的兴趣,激发了国际旅游到访;旅游者数量的增加为双方到彼此热点城市和地区设立旅游社和办事处成为可能,进一步构建了中介关联,为旅游需求转化为实际旅游行程创造了条件。旅游与贸易互动在时间上可能存在滞后,但不断增加的商务旅游者会激发周边熟人尤其是亲朋好友前往目的地国观光休闲或度假娱乐,陪伴商务旅游者前往或者独自前往。持续增加的商业业务和贸易活动,激发了某种商品使用者对该目的地的兴趣和关注,后续会产生商务、休闲观光旅游。
通过对入境宁夏的阿拉伯旅游者的旅游动机与商贸行为互动机理与路径关系的研究,揭示了两者之间的互动规律及其主要路径关系,并得出以下结论：
1） 阿拉伯旅游者通过商贸关联直接路径和间接路径共同引发贸易,其中商贸关联中的产品订购、商品销售等与商贸有直接关系的行为是商务旅游与贸易互动关系的起始点,这些行为动机直接构建了双边贸易关系,形成了一定数量的进口贸易和出口贸易,持续地商务旅游进一步引发了因果积累循环效应,产生了观光、文化体验、休闲度假和探亲访友等其他旅游类型,引发了循环往复的互动影响过程。
2） 间接路径中通过旅游渠道构建了关系链接和信息传播,进而产生了技术、商务、资金、就业和投资等相关信息在相关区域之间的溢出流动,阿拉伯旅游者利用博览会和各类经贸会议构建的个人关系和企业关系将会成为进一步构建商贸关系的基础和渠道,在此过程中通过当地居民和参展商获取了偏好信息,收集了商业信息或知识信息,消除了中阿不对称商贸信息,以此产生更多商贸行为或意愿;旅游者作为信息主体和介体会直接或者间接将与旅游目的地和商品产销地的信息传播至宁夏,同时将宁夏的相关信息传递出去,引起了两地居民对双方的广告效应,引起了双方对彼此的关注和兴趣,增加了各自的知名度,因此激发了在宁夏做生意或者进行经贸活动的兴趣,引发更多旅游与贸易。
3） 宁夏与阿拉伯国家旅游与贸易的互动机理：宁夏与阿拉伯国家之间的文化关联,拉近了心理感知距离,通过旅游构建了良好的人际关系和商贸关系,增加了贸易便利性、削减交易成本、消除商务距离、培育合作商机、构建商业纽带,开启了宁夏与阿拉伯国家之间的贸易规模的提升,尤其是出口贸易的迅猛增长。贸易的增长提高了旅游的便利化程度,进一步拉近了感知距离,消除了交易成本,构建了中介关联,增加了更多旅游需求。
本研究尝试弥补旅游与贸易宏观关系研究的不足,为进一步旅游与贸易互动的继续深入研究和全面揭示提供了启示。但构建的旅游与贸易互动结构模型依然存在理论支撑不足的问题,部分参数还未达到最佳拟合水平,有进一步深入挖掘和研究的空间。
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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五种旅游信息传播模式的比较与整合 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2012.05.015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
旅游信息传播是旅游活动的核心过程,也是旅游研究的重点领域。文章通过梳理相关研究成果,对比分析5种具有代表性的旅游信息传播模式,对其学科属性、概念内涵、模式结构、表述类型等内容进行归纳总结。在此基础上,文章从系统科学、社会心理学和社会伦理学切入,整合并重构旅游信息传播的过程及其结构要素,提出一个由传播者、信息、媒介、游客4大要素为主体,以大众传播、人际传播、组织传播、群体传播为传播方式,并以三环结构为几何特征的旅游信息立体传播模式,为旅游信息传播研究提供了一种新的框架和思路。
Comparison and integration of five tourism information dissemination models .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2012.05.015 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
旅游信息传播是旅游活动的核心过程,也是旅游研究的重点领域。文章通过梳理相关研究成果,对比分析5种具有代表性的旅游信息传播模式,对其学科属性、概念内涵、模式结构、表述类型等内容进行归纳总结。在此基础上,文章从系统科学、社会心理学和社会伦理学切入,整合并重构旅游信息传播的过程及其结构要素,提出一个由传播者、信息、媒介、游客4大要素为主体,以大众传播、人际传播、组织传播、群体传播为传播方式,并以三环结构为几何特征的旅游信息立体传播模式,为旅游信息传播研究提供了一种新的框架和思路。
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Movements of people for movements of goods? [J].https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12104 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Abstract Whilst it is well established to think of international tourism as a type of exports, namely -榟ome- exports, the potential of tourism flows as an engine for fostering trade among countries is a poorly studied topic. In this paper, we show that this relationship can be studied at a very detailed level by exploiting the disaggregation of existing information on international trade and inbound tourism. We consider a sample of 25 countries belonging to the European Union, a region that has been interested by common shocks such as the establishment of the euro as the new currency for many countries and the liberalisation in the air transport market. We carry out a panel data analysis by means of which we assess whether international tourist arrivals by a given country activate additional exports towards the same country. We find not only that tourism can promote exports, but also that this effect displays important differences depending on whether or not consumption goods are considered. This finding is consistent with the idea that the experience of tourists in a given destination reduces the fixed costs of trade, thus facilitating access to the advantages of international trade for more peripheral economies.
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Does tourism promote cross-border trade? [J].Am .https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00456 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
We estimate a simultaneous bivariate qualitative choice model of Arizona agribusiness firms' propensity to trade and visit as a tourist the cross-border state of Sonora, Mexico. Venture business visits, quantified through the tourism equation, were found to have the largest impact on a firm's propensity to trade. Tourist visits have a greater impact on trade when combined with other firm attributes such as age, perceived need for geographic diversity, foreign language fluency, and firm size, than if considered alone. Our results suggest that there is a role for government agencies to play in overcoming imperfect information related to trade opportunities through facilitating exploratory business venture and tourist visits.
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Jackson. Winning and keeping industrial customers: the dynamics of customer relationships [M]. |
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Developing and Protecting Profitable customer relationships [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/0019-8501(89)90040-0 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Using the case of a pseudonymous UK subsidiary of a US company in the health care industry to illustrate, compares the value of structural and social 'bonding' in maintaining profitable customer relationships in the face of price competition from new entrants. Defines structural bonds as what happens when two parties make investments which cannot be retrieved when the relationship ends due to complexity or cost; social bonds (interpersonal relationships) are easier to break as inferior decisions based on friendship are hard to justify.
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From marketing mix to relationship marketing [J]. |
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China’s relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council State:Multilevel Diplomacy in a Divided Arab World [J].https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.2015.0123 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
This article examines China's relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council states. China's interests in the Gulf region have been evolving; and in the 21st century they cover geopolitical interests, economic and trade interests, energy security interests, and nontraditional security interests. China's approach is multilevel: it maintains diplomatic relations with individual GCC states; it has initiated formal mechanisms of regular regional forums; it engages in people-to-people diplomacy through student exchanges and the setting up of Confucius Institutes in various GCC states; it maintains dialogues with other major powers; and it participates in important multilateral conferences on regional affairs. This article assesses China's performance in this multilevel diplomacy that demands close coordination between the various levels of foreign policy making and policy implementation, and the maintenance of a delicate balance in the complex major power competition and regional rivalries in a divided Arab world. In line with China's Arab-world experts who often examine the strategic configuration in the Gulf region within a framework of five periods, China's Gulf policy is analyzed in the following stages: (1) 1958-1967, (2) 1967-1971, (3) 1971-1979, (4) 1979-1990, (5) 1990-2001, and (6) 2001-present. Major emphasis is placed on developments in recent years.
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国内外旅游广告研究综述 [J].https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-6539.2010.03.004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
旅游广告是旅游研究中颇具学术价值和现实意义的前沿领域，文章通过对国内外相关论著和期刊文献的回顾，从媒体计划、形象构建、效果影响及评定等主要议题廓清旅游广告研究进展，并在简要述评相关研究成果的基础上，探讨了未来研究的方向与启示。
Study on tourism advertising at home and abroad .https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-6539.2010.03.004 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
旅游广告是旅游研究中颇具学术价值和现实意义的前沿领域，文章通过对国内外相关论著和期刊文献的回顾，从媒体计划、形象构建、效果影响及评定等主要议题廓清旅游广告研究进展，并在简要述评相关研究成果的基础上，探讨了未来研究的方向与启示。
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Interaction between finance, tourism and advertising: Evidence from Turkey [J].
The purpose – It is important to emphasize that a research on relationship between tourism, finance and advertisement is very rare. The aim of this study is investigation of causal relationship between these variables. Design – In this paper, the relationship between tourism revenues and variables like tourism index of Istanbul Stock Market (BIST) & tourism advertising durations which have not been used previously in the literature was investigated for Turkey. Methodology – To attain more useful and accurate findings, bootstrap granger causality test of Hacker Hatemi-J (2010) was used which can determine critical values by bootstrap simulation method in order to reduce the possibility of potential non-normal dispersion of errors. Approach – In purpose of contribution to literature, monthly data in the period spanning from Aug 2004 till Dec 2012 and bootstrap causality method were used, thus new findings were tried to be found Findings – While traditional Toda-Yamamoto (1996) causality test has been determined no causality between these three variables, there was observed one-way causality from tourism index to tourism advertisements by the aid of more advanced Hacker Hatemi-J (2010) causality test. As a result of study, one-way causality from tourism indices, which is an important indicator representing all positive and negative performances of businesses in tourism sector, to advertising durations was detected. The originality of this research – In this study, unlike others, variables like tourism index which represents businesses in tourism sector and tourism advertising durations were used. The relationship between tourism index, tourism advertisings and tourism revenue was examined with Hacker Hatemi-J (2010) bootstrap causality test which obtains critical values by bootstrap monte-carlo simulation. By this new test, more reliable and advanced results have been obtained. As a result, tourism index which can be considered as a fundamental performance scale of tourism sector has a vital effect on tourism advertisement.
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They arrive with new information. Tourism flows and production efficiency in the European regions [J].https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2010.06.010 URL [本文引用: 1] 摘要
Firms productivity is crucially influenced by knowledge spillovers generated either by other firms located nearby or by direct contacts with consumers or by foreign demand in the case of traded products. In this paper we propose a new channel of efficiency-enhancing knowledge diffusion, which can be exploited by local firms to extract relevant information on consumer preferences: direct contacts with tourism flows. Tourists have the peculiar feature of being external consumers, who directly arrive to the destination region and this represents a remarkable advantage for the local enterprises, as the latter can exploit the new information and increase the overall efficiency level of the local economy. More specifically, we examine, within a spatial estimation framework, tourism flows as determinants of regional total factor productivity, controlling also for other intangible factors (such as human, social and technological capital) and for the degree of accessibility. We apply the analysis to a sample of 199 European regions belonging to the EU15 member countries, plus Switzerland and Norway. The empirical results show that tourism flows enhance regional efficiency and that a positive role is also played by intangible assets, infrastructures and spatial spillovers.
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Knowledge spillover and innovation in technological clusters. Proceedings[R]. Washington, D . |
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Practical issues in structural modeling [J].https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124187016001004 URL [本文引用: 1] |
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