地理科学 ›› 1984, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (1): 69-75.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1984.01.69

• 问题讨论 • 上一篇    下一篇

从东线地区历史干旱规律看南水北调的可行性

杨迈里, 蒋自巽   

  1. 中国科学院南京地理研究所
  • 出版日期:1984-01-20 发布日期:1984-01-20

ASSESSING THE FEASIBILITY OF EAST-ROUTE WATER TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH HISTORIED DROUGHT OCCURRENCE

Yang Meili, Jiang Zixun   

  1. Nanjing Institute of Gebgraphy, Academia Sinica
  • Online:1984-01-20 Published:1984-01-20

摘要: 南水北调东线从长江下游的扬州附近抽江水北上,跨淮河、黄河,至海河流域,以济黄淮海平原缺水之需。近期规划抽江流量为1000秒立方米,属大规模调水工程。本文根据我国古代地方志中有关历史气候记载,系统地整理了东线地区五百余年的干旱史料;并考虑到调水功能的地域差异,把东线地区自南向北分为水量输出区的南片与水量输入区的中、北片。南片指长江以南三角洲地区,中片指长江以北淮河流域和里下河地区,北片包括黄河下游与海河流域。笔者分析了南、中、北三片历史时期的干旱遭遇,为调水决策提供有关的科学依据。

Abstract: This paper,using assessment based on historied drought,mainly deals with the feasibility of East-Route water diversion from the Changjiang River to the Huang-Huai-Hai Plains.Some authors suggested that the study area may be divided into three different regions,namely,(1)the water-exported region including the lower reaches of the Changjiang River.(2)the region through which water is transfered,including the Huai River Basin. (8)the water-imported region including the lower reaches of the Yellow River and the Hai River Basin. In this paper,according to a great amount of local chronicles,the histotied drought information of the last 500 years in three regions is summarized. It is found that the regions simultaneously suffered from 12 years drought disasters every 100 years,of which the severe drought disasters had 3 years every 100 years.In addition,the successive 2—6years of drought had been experienced.Thus,the drought occurrence is so widespread that the feasibility of this projects is doubtful.The authors advise that the problemof the simultaneous drought occurrence should be considered in decision-making process.