• 论文 •

### 黄河流域水资源未来变化趋势分析

1. 1. 黄河水利科学研究院, 河南 郑州 450003;
2. 郑州市环境保护局, 河南 郑州 450004
• 收稿日期:2000-08-28 修回日期:2001-01-07 出版日期:2001-09-20 发布日期:2001-09-20
• 基金资助:
国家重点基础研究项目(编号G1999043400)资助

### Analysis on Water Resources Variation Tendency in the Yellow River

WANG Guo-qing1, WANG Yun-zhang1, SHI Zhong-hai2, KANG Ling-ling1, LI Hao-bing1

1. 1. Institute of Hydraulic Research, Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou, Henan 450003;
2. Zhengzhou Bureau of Environment Protection, Zhengzhou, Henan 450004
• Received:2000-08-28 Revised:2001-01-07 Online:2001-09-20 Published:2001-09-20

Abstract: The Yellow River is deficient in water resources. Global warming will be made for the water supplying and demanding in contradiction with water resources more conspicuous. Analysis on water resources variation tendency is very important to its utilization and development. In this paper, the main area of runoff yielding in the Yellow River is divided into four parts according to the difference of runoff generation and climate conditions. They are the region above Lanzhou station (regionⅠ), the region from Hekouzhen to Longmen (regionⅡ), the region from Longmen to Sanmenxia (region Ⅲ) and the region from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou (region Ⅳ) respectively. Statistical results show that runoff in the four areas is about 98% of total water resources in the Yellow River. And then, a monthly water balance model was established considering the characteristics of runoff yielding in the four areas. The model is used to simulate natural discharge, and the calculated discharge consists of surface flow, ground flow and snow-melting flow. The surface flow is directly proportional to soil moisture and precipitation. The ground flow is calculated by a linear reservoir. And snow-melting flow is not only an exponential function with atmosphere temperature, but also proportional to snow accumulation. The model is used to simulate natural discharge in the four areas. Simulation results for the four areas are perfect. According to the hypothetical climate scenarios, the responses of annual runoff in the four areas to climate change were analyzed. The results show that runoff is more sensitive to precipitation change than that to temperature change. The runoff in the four areas would increase 14%-18% if precipitation increase 10%. And if temperature rise 1℃, the runoff would decrease 3.7%-6.6%. Runoff in the second and the third areas are more sensitive to climate change than that in other areas. Runoff in the first area is lest sensitive to climate change due to abundant ground runoff and snow-melting runoff. And then, monthly runoff absolute changes are calculated under the hypothetical climate scenarios of temperature increase 2℃ and precipitation decrease 20%. Results show that absolute change of runoff is remarkable in more"wet"regions and seasons relatively.And at last, the variation of runoff under the CO2 content in atmosphere doubling scenario were calculated through the output results of three GCMs (LLNL MPI UKMOH). The results show that water resources in the Yellow River would present a decreasing tendency in the several decades. Annual runoff would decrease 35.7×108 m3 and meanwhile runoff in flood period would decrease 25.4×108m3.

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