地理科学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (1): 102-109.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.01.102

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量空间格局演化

刘玉1,2, 刘彦随1,2, 郭丽英3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101;
    2. 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;
    3. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所, 北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2010-04-02 修回日期:2010-06-18 出版日期:2011-01-20 发布日期:2011-01-20
  • 通讯作者: 刘彦随,研究员。E-mail: liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn E-mail:liuys@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX2-EW-304)、国家自然科学基金重点项目(40635029)和中国博士后科学基金项目(20090460408)资助。

Evolvement of Spatial Pattern of Per Capita Grain Possession at County Level in the Area along Bohai Rim of China

LIU Yu1,2, LIU Yan-sui1,2, GUO Li-ying3   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing 100101, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , 100101, China;
    3. Institute of Natural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2010-04-02 Revised:2010-06-18 Online:2011-01-20 Published:2011-01-20

摘要: 应用GIS技术和空间自相关分析方法,分析了1990年以来环渤海地区县域人均粮食占有量的空间演化特征。结果表明,研究区县域人均粮食占有量空间自相关特征明显,高-高聚集和低-低聚集趋势增强;人均粮食增长更多表现出空间分布的随机性,地理集中趋势不明显;县域人均粮食占有量以上升为主,增长类型以总产低、快速增长型为主,粮食生产重心逐步向平原区集中,辽中和鲁西地区的粮食生产功能日益凸显,生态脆弱区和快速城镇化区的人均粮食占有量明显下降。最后,通过空间计量经济模型SLM和SEM的回归分析,探讨了县域人均粮食占有量格局演化的主要驱动力。

Abstract: The area along Bohai Rim, including Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Hebei and Shandong, is one of the important grain production bases that guarantee food security in China. With the acceleration of area urbanization in the past 20 years, the grain production and consumption patterns along Bohai Rim have brought about significant changes. Agricultural statistics of the area along Bohai Rim at county-resolution level for the time period of 1990-2008 is collected and the GIS technique as well as other tools such as the Moran's I and the Getis-Ord are introduced to describe the spatial changes of per capita grain possession at county level in this area. The conclusions are as the follows. First, per capita grain possession at county level in the area along Bohai Rim shows a significantly trend of positive spatial correlation and similar areas cluster in space. LISA cluster map demonstrates that counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in Liaohe plain, the Yellow River floodplain in western Shandong Province and alluvial plain of Haihe river, while the lower per capita grain possession gathered in mountainous-hilly areas, tableland areas and densely populated city area. Second,the spatial framework of per capita grain possession growth is likely to be more stochastic and unstable in the aspect of spatial distribution. Hotspot areas are changing frequently without obvious appearance of geographical concentration. Third, Per capita grain possession in most of the counties shows an upward trend, and lower production but faster growth is the main type. The grain production function has been improved significantly in plains and has been weakened as the implementation of Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Project in mountainous-hilly areas, and it has been shown a strong downward trend in cities and their surrounding counties as the sharp reduction of cultivated land and the swift growth of regional population. At last, the contributing factors for the variation of per capita grain possession are studied using Spatial Lag Model and Spatial Error Model. The empirical results show that the spatial structure of per capita grain possession is affected positively by the per capita grain possession in 1990, per capita cultivated land, multiple cropping indexes, cropping structure and input of agricultural machine power, while affected negatively by the quantity of agriculture labors and per capita GDP in 2007. The driving force of the evolvement of per capita grain possession framework can be identified through the following aspects: the basis of historical development, the policies on regional development and economic factors. Effective regulation and favorable policies can promote per capita grain possession and guarantee regional grain safety.

中图分类号: 

  • F301.24