• 论文 •

### 中国二氧化硫减排分析及减排潜力

1. 中国环境监测总站, 北京 100012
• 收稿日期:2010-11-20 修回日期:2011-06-09 出版日期:1997-09-20 发布日期:1997-09-20
• 通讯作者: 张建辉,研究员。E-mail:zhangjh@cnemc.cn E-mail:zhangjh@cnemc.cn
• 基金资助:
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2009ZX07527-004)、中国环境监测总站转型发展科研支撑项目(CNEMC-ZXKY2009-001)、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJCZH130)资助。

### Sulphur Dioxide Reduction and Potential in China

LI Ming-Sheng, ZHANG Jian-Hui, LUO Hai-Jiang, LIN Lan-Yu, LI Qian, ZHANG Yin-Jun

1. China National Environmental Monitoring Center, Beijing, 100012, China
• Received:2010-11-20 Revised:2011-06-09 Online:1997-09-20 Published:1997-09-20

Abstract: SO2 is one of total quality control of pollutions. It provides the theory and realistic reference meaning for pollutions reduction to investigate the changing trend and influential factors of SO2. The SO2 emission data are from China Environment Statistical Yearbook and the emission trend and reduction trend of SO2 are showed firstly in the paper. Then, Logarithmic mean weight divisia method model and reduction model are applied to analyzing the influential factors effects and SO2 reduction. The main results could be summarized as follows: 1) The industrial emission of SO2 kept rising from 2000 to 2006 and descended in recent four years. Changes in the three regions of China were similar to national trend. However, the proportion of western region in whole emission increased in the past ten years. 2) The SO2 reduction goal in "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" had been achieved. The industrial SO2 made a greater contribution for reduction. Reduction volume in east region was the most. From the view of technique, it was the main method to increase SO2 removal rate. 3) The average growth of industrial SO2 was-65?104 t. The scale of economic development, the industry structure and emission intensity had different contributions to the change, which were 315?104 t,-344?104 t,-36?104 t,respectively. 4) Conditional convergence and absolute convergence obviously exit for the SO2 emission intensity among provinces in China. The SO2 reduction potential of different regions in conditional convergence would be 738?104 t (equivalent to 1/3 of SO2 emission in 2009). 5) If the reduction goal was 8%-10%, the industrial SO2 removal rate must reach 74%-80%. The reduction situation would be severe. It was of vital importance in SO2 reduction to promote the change in the pattern of economic growth.

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