1961~2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1118

地理科学 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (9): 1118-1124.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.09.1118

1961~2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析

姜德娟¹, 李志², 王昆³

1. 中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所, 山东烟台 264003;
2. 西北农林科技大学资源环境学院, 陕西杨凌 712100;
3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京 100101

收稿日期:2010-09-08 修回日期:2011-05-11 出版日期:1997-09-20 发布日期:1997-09-20
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(40901028)资助。

Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Shandong Province From 1961 to 2008

JIANG De-Juan¹, LI Zhi², WANG Kun³

1. Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai, Shandong 264003, China;
2. College of Resources and Environment, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;
3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2010-09-08 Revised:2011-05-11 Online:1997-09-20 Published:1997-09-20

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用山东省1961~2008年逐日降水资料,采用百分位值法定义了极端降水事件的阈值,然后统计出极端降水事件的频次、降水量、强度和年最大日降水量,并对其空间分布和时间趋势进行分析。结果表明,山东省极端降水事件阈值的空间分布存在明显的地域差异,总体上以泰山为中心向周边逐渐减小;频次的空间差异较小,基本在18 d/a左右;极端降水量、强度和年最大日降水量的空间特征基本相似,总体呈自东南向西北递减的态势,且高值中心均分布于泰山一带。48 a来,除降水强度,极端降水事件的其他3个指标呈弱减少趋势,并于1965年左右发生了突变现象;相对中西部,胶东半岛的减少趋势更为显著。48 a来,极端降水事件的4个指标均存在明显的年代际特征,而且还存在准11 a的震荡周期,并以1984年为中间轴呈左右对称分布。

Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data of 18 meteorological stations over Shandong Province during 1961~2008, the extreme precipitation thresholds were determined for different stations by the centesimal value method, and then, four indices including frequency, annual amount, intensity and annual daily maximum amount of extreme precipitation events were counted and their spatial characteristics and temporary trends were analyzed. The results showed that the extreme precipitation thresholds indicated the remarkable regional difference and gradually decreased from the center of the Taishan Mountain to outside. The frequency of extreme precipitation events was about 18 d/a with a sight regional difference. The spatial characteristics of annual amount, intensity and annual daily maximum amount of extreme precipitation events were similar, i.e., they were all characterized with a decrease from the southeast to northwest of Shandong Province and their high-value centers were located in the Taishan Mountain. For recent 48 years, 4 indices except intensity of extreme precipitation events showed a slight decreasing trend, which was more significant in Jiaodong peninsular, and moreover, the abruption changes in the year of about 1965 occurred for these three indices. However, the intensity of extreme precipitation events showed no obvious trend and no abruption change. Four indices of extreme precipitation events all indicated the remarkable interdecadal variability and furthermore, the qusia-11 year oscillating period existed for these four indices during 1961~2008, which were symmetrically distributed surrounding the middle-axis in the year of 1984.

中图分类号:

P467

姜德娟, 李志, 王昆. 1961~2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(9): 1118-1124.

JIANG De-Juan, LI Zhi, WANG Kun. Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Shandong Province From 1961 to 2008[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2011, 31(9): 1118-1124.

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1961~2008年山东省极端降水事件的变化趋势分析

Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events Over Shandong Province From 1961 to 2008

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