关键词: 建设用地, 社会经济发展, 城市化, 空间自相关, 空间误差模型

Abstract:

In this paper, the relationship between construction land and socio-economic development of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China in 2008 was studied by using spatial econometric models. The results show that: construction land area, GDP, total population and urbanization rate all have the significant space-related features of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. A regional socio-economic development will not only drive the expansion of construction land itself, and lead to construction land growth of the ambient areas. The traditional research ideas only focused on the time dimension, but ignored the relevance and heterogeneity of spatial dimensions, underestimated the social and economic development of region in the role of construction land growth. Spatial variables must be introduced to modify the general panel linear regression model. From the general model and the spatial error regression model test results, the spatial error model′s logL and AIC, SC values ??were significantly improved, and these regression variables are significant. Due to space spillover effects, the sum of three elements′ coefficients of the spatial error regression model is greater than the general model. It indicates that the estimation methods ignoreing spatial factors underestimate the regional socio-economic development′s effect to construction land′s growth. SEM model in the spatial error coefficient of 0.706 is significant at 1% level, indicating a regional socio-economic development will not only drive the expansion of its construction land area, and will lead to the growth of the adjacent areas′ construction land. The spatial error regression model estimation results, compared with the general model, show that the contribution of the total population was significantly greater than the contribution of GDP and urbanization, which means that the urbanization should be speed up, and population growth be strictly controlled. The econometric model tests show that the urbanization level′s coefficient is very small and has minor effect to the total amount of construction land. In general, with the urbanization level′s increase, the rural population will gradually decrease and rural residential land also should be reduced. However, the various regions of China showed that the positive role of the urbanization, and rural residential land was weakened. At present, the total village construction land is 4.6 times more than that of urban construction land. The rural residential land per capita is much larger than the urban construction land per capita. It indicates that the land use efficiency in most provinces′ rural residential is low generally. Therefore, the adjustment and optimization of rural residential land is imminent. In the long run, to improve the level of urbanization, break the urban and rural dualistic land structure and to establish a unified land market are effective ways to ease the shortage of land resources and improve the land use efficiency.

Key words: construction land, socio-economic development, urbanization, spatial autocorrelation, spatial error model