关键词: 一次能源, 碳排放, LMDI, 低碳生态城市, 郑汴都市区

Abstract:

Responses to the challenge of global warming include research into scope for adoption of low-carbon approaches to resource use. Urban development is faced the transition to a low carbon eco-city, and evolution mechanisms of urban primary energy-related carbon emissions are the premise and foundation for Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area′s low carbon eco-city research. The paper estimates carbon emissions and its influencing factors in different periods by carbon emission model and LMDI method. The various influencing factors include population size, economic development level, planting structure, crop yields, crop sown area, energy intensity, energy structure and so on. Especially, evolution mechanisms of fossil fuel-related carbon emissions from 2000 to 2009, primary energy-related carbon emissions and major crops carbon sequestration from 2004 to 2007 are explored using LMDI analysis. In addition, the low-carbon development identification function is constructed to choose the further leading industry. The conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) Carbon emissions gradually increase per year in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area during the study period, with great difference in amount, speed and structure. Specifically, primary energy-related carbon emissions have a great increase while major crops' carbon sequestrations increase slowly. Coal-related carbon emissions play an important role in total emissions, and biomass energy-related carbon emissions can not be ignored compared with natural gas and crude oil. Fossil fuel-related carbon emissions and primary energy-related carbon emissions of Zhengzhou are higher than that of Kaifeng, while major crops carbon sequestrations of Kaifeng are higher than that of Zhengzhou. 2) Carbon emissions change with the interaction of factors such as economic development level, energy intensity, energy structure, population size, planting structure, crop yields, crop sown area. Economic growth is the most significant effect to promote an increase in carbon emissions. Energy intensity improvement effectively promotes a decrease in carbon emissions. And crop sown area expansion and crop yields increase are significant effect in carbon sequestration with some difference in Zhengzhou and Kaifeng. Because of the data and methods selected in this article, effects of energy structure and planting structure are not very significant. 3) The industry′s complementary development is contributed to reduce carbon emissions in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area, but a variety of industries′ capacity and structure needs improving and adjusting. The improvement of energy utilization technology in new industries, the upgrading and adjustment of traditional industries, the update of urban functions has brought new opportunities for low-carbon development in Zheng-Bian metropolitan area. 4) Low-carbon urban complex ecosystem is an open complex giant system, and mechanisms on carbon emissions of energy-material- information flow are the direction for further study. It is of significant importance to comprehensively analysis the interactive mechanism among different factors, such as population growth and technological progress, economic development and industrial restructuring, energy intensity and land use change. The ultimate goal is to regulate Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area into a low-carbon eco-city by exploring the carbon emission discipline in built-up areas, expansion areas, and carbon footprint area in Zhengzhou-Kaifeng complex ecosystem.

Key words: primary energy, carbon emissions, LMDI, low carbon eco-city, Zhengzhou-Kaifeng metropolitan area