地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 1252-1258.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.010.1252

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基于正交试验设计的土地利用变化元胞自动机模拟过程的尺度敏感性分析

吴浩1,2(), 周璐1, 史文中2, 陈晓玲3, 杨海生1, 程志萍1, 叶露萍1   

  1. 1. 武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北 武汉 430070
    2.香港理工大学土地测量与地理资讯学系,香港 999077
    3.武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430079
  • 收稿日期:2012-11-05 修回日期:2013-04-08 出版日期:2013-10-20 发布日期:2013-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:吴浩(1977-),男,湖北黄冈人,博士,副教授,主要从事地理空间信息科学和技术应用研究。E-mail:haow2000@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2013M531749,2012T50691),香江学者计划(XJ2012036),国家自然科学基金(40901214),武;汉市青年科技晨光计划(201150431093)和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2012-ZY-061,2013-IV-040)资助

Scale Sensitive of Cellular Automata Model for the Simulation of Land Use Change Based on Orthogonal Experiment

Hao WU1,2(), Lu ZHOU1, Wen-zhong SHI2, Xiao-ling CHEN3, Hai-sheng YANG1, Zhi-ping CHENG1, Lu-ping YE1   

  1. 1. School of Resources and Environment Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430070,China
    2. Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, 999077,China
    3. State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei 430079,China
  • Received:2012-11-05 Revised:2013-04-08 Online:2013-10-20 Published:2013-10-20

摘要:

采用正交试验设计,提出一种探测土地利用变化元胞自动机模拟过程中的尺度敏感性分析方法,系统地分析了元胞自动机模型各尺度因素之间的关系以及尺度组合对模拟精度的影响,并检验了模型中不同尺度因素相互之间存在的相关性。结果表明在利用元胞自动机来模拟土地利用变化过程中,模拟结果对各因素的尺度敏感性由大到小依次为转换规则、元胞大小、邻域大小和邻域形状,且转换规则同元胞大小之间、以及同邻域大小之间都存在明显的尺度交互影响。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 元胞自动机, 尺度敏感性, 正交试验设计, 遥感图像处理

Abstract:

Land use change is a core field of the global environmental change and it has turned into worldwide research focus. Accurate prediction of land use change is of great importance from the standpoint of theory and practice. Cellular Automata (CA) model has unexampled advantages in creating spatial modeling approaches for simulating land use changes, which has been applied and proved by a great number of researches for decades and all achieved satisfactory effects. However, along with the attention of scale effect in geoscience, it is found that the scale effect in CA model is reflected on the transition rule, the cell size, the neighborhood size and the neighborhood type. That is to say, CA model is sensitive to these four factors. Different scales of these four factors work together and remarkably impact the accuracy of the results simulated by CA model. Among those existing researches analyzing the sensitivity of CA model in land use change simulation, single factor is always the research priority. But they are just far from comprehensive and the research results are not very precise since all these factors, without question, will affect directly to the performance of CA model. What is more, the complex relationships between those factors need to explore as well. To cure the above problems, an orthogonal experiment design method is proposed to analyze the scale sensitivity of CA model to these influential factors. What is more, the existing problems of the correlation between these factors were proved for the first time in the article. Under this scheme, Wuhan, the capital of Hubei Province was taken as an example to analyze the sensitivity of CA model by comparing the difference of the simulated results. Using the special method of range analysis in orthogonal experiment design, it helped to find the influence of different factors to the Cellular Automata model and the optimum combination of factors and also test whether there exist some correlation between any two factors of the cellular automata model. Specifically, when it comes to the sensitivity with which CA model reflects those factors, the sequence decreasingly was the transition rule, the cell size, the neighborhood size and the neighborhood type. In addition, these factors and their respective optimum level together make up the optimum combination of factors to CA model. Besides, the results also revealed that there existed remarkable interactions between the transition rule and the cell size, and between the transition rule and the neighborhood size. In general, this study provides a comprehensive basis for scale sensitivity analysis of CA model in land use change simulation and fills the gaps of the existing methods in exploring this problem.

Key words: land use change, Cellular Automata model, scale sensitivity, orthogonal experiment design, remote sensing image processing

中图分类号: 

  • P942