关键词: 气候变暖, 玉米, 气候适宜性, 黄淮地区

Abstract:

Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production. Climate variability adversely impacts crop production and imposes a major constraint on farming panning, mostly on how to enhance the yields of maize, across the word. Owing to the fundamental importance of food to human welfare, crop and livestock production, used the data of maize experimental field and meteorological data of eight agro-meteorological experiment stations and agro-meteorological observation stations in Shangqiu from 1991 to 2010, the models of climate suitability had been established. The dynamic variation of climate suitability in the whole growth period from 1971 to 2010 was analyzed. The results showed that the suitability degrees of temperature, sunshine, precipitation and integrated were 0.507, 0.587, 0.545 and 0.541 respectively during the whole growth period of maize. The sunshine suitability degree was the best, precipitation suitability degree taken the second place and the temperature suitability degree was the worst. It is indicated that temperature is the major limiting factor for maize growth and development. The temperature suitability degrees decreased by 0.003 every ten years, sunshine suitability degree decreased by 0.049 every ten years and the precipitation suitability degrees decreased by 0.006 every ten years from 1971 to 2010. The weaken combination effect of temperature, sunshine and precipitation was unfavorable for the growth of maize. The precipitation and temperature were the main climatic factors affecting the sowing and emergence of maize. The precipitation, temperature and sunshine had poor combination effect in sowing to emergence period, which had the unfavorable influence on the growth of maize. Because of the temperature increasing and the sunshine hours decreasing, suitability of every climatic factor was weaker in the emergence to jointing period of maize. In jointing to tasseling period of maize, precipitation and temperature suitability degrees were well. It indicated that the effective combination of precipitation and temperature were beneficial to the jointing and tasseling of maize. The combination effect of temperature, sunshine and precipitation trended to better in the tasseling to milk period, which was beneficial to the accumulation of dry matter of maize. The sunshine suitability degrees were well, temperature and precipitation suitability degrees were weaker in milk to maturity period of maize, and the integrated climate suitability degree began to deteriorate.

Key words: climate warming, summer maize, climate suitability, the Huanghuai Region