地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 1413-1420.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.012.1413

• •    下一篇

中国海洋经济发展的时空差异及其动态变化研究

狄乾斌1(), 刘欣欣1, 曹可2   

  1. 1.辽宁师范大学 海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁 大连 116029
    2.国家海洋环境监测中心,辽宁 大连 116023
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-23 修回日期:2013-05-05 出版日期:2013-12-20 发布日期:2013-12-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:狄乾斌(1977-),男,山东滕州人,博士,副教授,研究方向为经济地理。E-mail:dqbwmn@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41101571)、教育部人文社科重点研究基地项目基金(10JJD790015)资助

Spatial and Temportal Disparities of Marine Economic Development and Dynamic Changes in China

Qian-bin DI, Xin-xin LIU1, Ke CAO2   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024,China;
    2. School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024,China
  • Received:2013-01-23 Revised:2013-05-05 Online:2013-12-20 Published:2013-12-20

摘要:

中国海洋经济近年来快速发展,但地区差异明显。以沿海11个省市区为研究对象,从时间与空间2个角度,运用变差系数及加权变差系数来表现1996~2010年沿海省市经济发展的差异程度,结果表明中国沿海省市海洋经济成倍增长,总体差异在波动中减小;采用区位熵、洛伦兹曲线及基尼系数对海洋产业结构及其空间布局演化进行分析,得出海洋产业结构向高级阶段演进,海洋产业集聚规模有所减弱,各产业趋于均衡发展;具有资源属性的海洋产业集聚程度最高,海洋第三产业集聚程度降低;利用主成分分析法对沿海省市的海洋经济发展进行综合评价将其分为3个梯队;使用R/S分析法对沿海地区差异情况进行预测,显示未来差距有增大的趋势。最后从提高海洋资源开发能力、提高海洋经济发展质量等角度提出了具体建议。

关键词: 海洋经济, 时空差异, 动态变化, R/S分析

Abstract:

The marine economy of China is growing rapidly in recent years. Due to the differences in terms of the regional natural resource endowment, technology, industrial foundation, development and policy etc., there are large economic disparities among coastal regions. It takes 11 coastal provinces and municipalities as the objects to study the differences in characteristics of marine economy development in China from the two aspects of space and time in the article. The article uses Variation Coefficient and Weighted Variation Coefficient to represent the differences of coastal regions from 1996 to 2010. It adopts the Location Entropy, Lorezn Curve and Gini Coefficient to analyze the marine industrial structure and the evolution of its spatial distribution. Principal component analysis is used to evaluate the comprehensive marine economic development of the coastal provinces and the R/S analysis is used to forecast the disparities of the coastal regions. Then some reasonable suggestions are put forward to the existing problems in the development of marine economy. The results show that: marine economy in coastal regions has multiplied while there is a significant regional disparity and the overall difference decreases in volatility. Marine industrial structure is evolving into the advanced stage, the proportion of marine secondary and tertiary industry exceeds the primary industry and the marine secondary industry develops slowly on the whole. The scale of marine industrial agglomeration is reducing and tending to the balanced development. The marine industry with resource attribute has the highest concentration degree and the marine tertiary industry with spatial accessibility has the lower cluster. The coastal provinces and cities are divided into three echelons through comprehensive evaluation. Zhejiang, Shandong, Shanghai, Guangdong and Fujian are in the first echelon of integrated development of the marine economy, Liaoning, Tianjin and Jiangsu are in the second, Hainan, Hebei and Guangxi are in the third. The forecast demonstrates that gaps between coastal provinces and cities gradually decrease over the next 15 years and the differences are in the trend to increase slowly in the later time. It can be seen from the analysis that the development of marine economy in China has made considerable achievements but there are still some shortcomings such as low marine economy contribution rate, unreasonable industrial structure and lack of regional differences compared with ocean world powers, which will affect the goal of Chinese marine power construction. Finally, in order to solve the issues of space and time disparities in Chinese marine economy to optimize regional marine industry structure, narrow the differences of regional marine economy and provide a scientific reference to promote the sustainable development of Chinese marine economy, the study brings forward some concrete suggestions as improving the marine resources development ability and the quality of marine economy.

Key words: marine economy, spatial and temportal disparities, dynamic changes, R/S analysis

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9