关键词: 大都市边缘, LUCC, CLUE-S模型, 动态模拟, 雁江区

Abstract:

Nowadays with the rapid development of China's economy, the urbanization process has been accelerating significantly. Due to the obvious advantages of geographical location and led by large cities, the urbanization process of many satellite cities located in urban fringes of large cities have been speeding up. How to achieve the sustainable utilization of land resources has become the key issue that must be addressed to keep the urban development. Locating in the middle of the Sichuan basin, Yanjiang District, Ziyang is in Chengdu one-hour economical circle. Taking Yanjiang District as the study area and using the CLUE-S model (The conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small Region Extent), this article made a dynamic simulation of spatial-temporal pattern of land use from 2005 to 2020 in study area and analyzed the characteristics of its land use and cover change. In the simulation research, by using ETM image and ALOS image as data source, land use data of 2005 and 2009 was obtained through decision tree classification. Thereinto, the data of 2005 was land use data of simulation initial year, and data of 2009 was verification data of simulation result. Gray model is applied to predict the demand for land use types of future years based on the data of land use in previous years.On this basis, combined with the general plan of regional land use, the paper selected socio-economic drive factors and physical geography drive factors which are relating to land use and land cove change, and simulated the spatial-temporal pattern of study area land use from 2005 to 2020 by using CLUE-S model.Logistic model is used to calculate the correlation between types of land use of study area and socio-economic, physical geography drive factors.Then the validity of the prediction results in the study area is gotten through the ROC test.Afterwards based on the land use data of 2005, by inputting correct parameters into the CLUE-S model, The map of land use spatial pattern distribution of Jianyang County in 2009 and 2020 is simulated.Then the paper verified the accuracy of 2009 land use simulation result, of which the Kappa coefficient is 0.887. That showed the simulation results are of high precision. By using GIS（Geographic Information System）, the analysis of simulation results of 16 years(2005-2020) showed that in the study area ,cultivated land area reduced significantly, garden plot area decreased slightly, and construction land and woodland area increased. Due to the strict water protection, the water area changed little. The simulation results and the land layout of general land use planning coincided highly with each other. That meant the CLUE-S model could simulate the land use and cover change of Sichuan basin hilly area more accurately, and could be used for reference in research of land use change of other cities in this area.

Key words: metropolitan fringe, LUCC, CLUE-S model, dynamic simulation, Yanjian District