地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (6): 735-740.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.06.735

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东北地区夏季干旱风险评估与区划

袭祝香1(), 杨雪艳1, 刘实2, 纪玲玲1   

  1. 1.吉林省气象台,吉林 长春 130062
    2.吉林省气象科学研究所,吉林 长春 130062
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-23 修回日期:2012-12-05 出版日期:2013-08-20 发布日期:2013-08-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:袭祝香(1963-),女,吉林长岭人,高级工程师,主要研究方向气象灾害评估,气候预测。E-mail:xzx_long@yahoo.com.cn

  • 基金资助:
    吉林省科技发展计划项目(20080427)和公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106021)资助

The Risk Evaluation and Division of the Summer Drought in Northeast China

Zhu-xiang XI1(), Xue-yan YANG1, Shi LIU2, Ling-ling JI1   

  1. 1.Jilin Meteorological Observatory ,Changchun ,Jilin 130062,China
    2.Jilin Meteorological Science Institute,Changchun ,Jilin 130062,China
  • Received:2012-06-23 Revised:2012-12-05 Online:2013-08-20 Published:2013-08-20

摘要:

利用东北地区逐日平均气温、降水量资料,定义了夏季干旱指数,分析了东北地区夏季干旱的时间和空间演变规律和特点,计算了东北地区夏季降水变异系数、夏季干旱风险指数和风险概率并进行了分析,定义了夏季干旱综合风险指数,并进行了综合风险分区。结果表明:东北地区夏季干旱在空间分布上呈西重东轻的特点,20世纪90年代以来,东北地区夏季干旱处于前所未有的多发阶段。黑龙江西南部,吉林、辽宁两省西部为夏季干旱高或较高风险区;黑龙江中北部和东部以及吉林、辽宁两省中部为夏季干旱较低风险区;黑龙江中南部、吉林东部,辽宁东南部为夏季干旱低风险区。对于夏季干旱的高风险区和较高风险区要采取重点防御、大力推广抗旱农业生产技术、加大气候预测研究力度、加强东北地区抗旱能力建设等措施,以减轻夏季干旱损失。

关键词: 东北地区, 夏季干旱, 风险评估, 风险区划

Abstract:

Since the Northeast China is an important commodity grain base, the persistent drought events become a serious threat to food production in this area. Now the loss of grain caused by the drought is up to or even more than 10 billion YUAN each year. Due to the significant decrease of river runoff in the periods of drought and the over-exploitation of the groundwater, the situation of gradual deterioration of ecological environment in Northeast China has happened, the drought become a serious challenge in sustainable development of social economic and ecological environment. The study of the cause and its risk assessment of drought in Northeast China are of very important for the reduction of losses in drought disaster, and also important for providing scientific and technological support in the fight against droughts. Based on the daily mean temperature and precipitation data in Northeast China , and considering the influence of summer precipitation on food production, a summer drought index is defined by the use of K index, the space-time variation of summer drought is then investigated. The summer precipitation variation coefficient, the risk index and the risk probability of summer drought are calculated and analyzed. The comprehensive risk index is defined based on four indicators, i.e. the variation coefficient of summer precipitation, the frequency of summer drought, the risk index and risk probability of summer drought, the comprehensive risk division of summer drought is also conducted. Results show that: summer drought in Northeast China is more serious in the west than that in the east. The summer drought in Northeast China is get into the frequently-occurring stage since the 1990′s.The southwest of Heilongjiang Province, the west of Jilin Province and the west of Liaoning Province are the driest regions and they are the high-risk areas of summer drought, the north and east parts of Heilongjiang Province, the central of Jilin and Liaoning Province are the lower risks areas of summer drought, the south-central of Heilongjiang Province, the east of Jilin Province and the southeast of Liaoning Province are the low risk areas. Defensive measures should be taken in the high-risk and the higher risk areas, by promoting the agricultural drought resistant technology vigorously, taking grater efforts on the climate prediction, strengthing the construction of drought resistance so as to reduce the summer drought loss in Northeast China.

Key words: Northeast China, summer drought, risk evaluation, risk division

中图分类号: 

  • P49