地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (10): 1210-1217.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.010.1210

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基于地理加权回归的吉林省人口城镇化动力机制分析

庞瑞秋1(), 腾飞2, 魏冶1()   

  1. 1.东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林 长春 130024
    2.长春市城乡规划设计研究院,吉林 长春 130033
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-22 修回日期:2014-04-18 出版日期:2014-10-10 发布日期:2014-10-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：庞瑞秋(1974-),女,内蒙古开鲁人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市规划与设计,城市地理学研究。E-mail: pangrq615@nenu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（51178091,41301169）资助

A GWR-Based Study on Dynamic Mechanism of Population Urbanization in Jilin Province

Rui-qiu PANG1(), Fei TENG2, Ye WEI1()   

  1. 1.School of Geographical Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024, China
    2.Changchun Institute of Urban Planning & Design, Changchun, Jilin 130033, China
  • Received:2013-12-22 Revised:2014-04-18 Online:2014-10-10 Published:2014-10-10

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56

摘要：

以吉林省各县域（市辖区）为基本单元,借助第六次人口普查和统计年鉴的相关数据,结合地理加权回归模型和空间自相关分析方法,讨论人口城镇化水平和国有动力、非国有动力、农业动力及外向动力等因素的空间相关关系,并以此解释人口城镇化分县域（市辖区）差异的影响因素。结果表明：国有动力对吉林省人口城镇化的影响作用最大,影响强度由中北部向西南、东南两个方向递减;农业动力和非国有动力分居二、三位,但差别不明显。其中农业动力的影响强度由西北向东南方向递减,非国有动力的影响强度由东南向西北递减;外向动力对人口城镇化的影响力较弱,影响强度各地区差别较大。吉林省人口城镇化未来发展应重视非国有动力的影响和农村现代化的作用;关注人口城镇化动力多元化,考虑实现错位发展和个性化发展。

关键词: 人口城镇化, 地理加权回归, 动力机制, 吉林省

Abstract:

Population urbanization refers to the process in which rural populations move to urban areas. And this process has attracted more and more attentions of governments, scholars and public in China, as the emergence and rise of the concept of new-type urbanization. In this article, the mechanism of population urbanization in Jilin Province was analyzed by using geographically weighted regression (GWR) and spatial autocorrelation method. Compared with the ordinary least square (OLS), GWR extends the traditional regression framework by allowing the estimation of local rather than global parameters. According to the previous studies and the context of the study area, the article first supposed that there are four kinds of forces supporting the population urbanization in Jilin Province including state-provided force, non-state-provided force, agricultural force and external force. The state-provide force stands for the construction and investment by the state. Converting to the state-provide force, the non-state-provided force emphasized the role of market-oriented economy. The agricultural force refers to the motivational role of rural development, which is proposed due to the status of big agricultural province for Jilin. And the external force aims to analyze how the FDI and foreign trade drive the population urbanization. Then the role of each force was examined and measured by using OLS and GWR method. It is found that, the state-provided force played a most role among the four forces, and the effect intensity declined from central region to northwest and southeast region; the agricultural force stood on the second place, the effect of which increased from southeast to northwest; the non-state-provided force took the third place. The effect intensity of external force is smallest compared with the other forces, and there are no obvious spatial laws. According to these findings, this article suggested that more attentions should be paid to the role of non-state-provided force and the process of rural modernization in future development of population urbanization in Jilin Province. Meanwhile, diversified dynamic urbanization are also encouraged, namely the cities or counties should follow a misplaced and individualized developing mode.

Key words: population urbanization, geographically weighted regression, dynamic mechanism, Jilin Province

中图分类号: 

  • F290