城镇化进程中传统农区村民城镇迁居意愿分析——基于河南周口问卷调查数据

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.012.1445

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城乡人口流动理论是国内外城镇化领域的研究热点,研究视角日趋多元化。以往研究多集中在人口区域流动和外来务工人员城市融入等问题,侧重以城市为切入点,鲜有从农村居民视角出发研究其城镇化迁居意愿和感知的相关研究。从农村居民视角出发,选择传统农区河南省周口市为案例地,选取来自17个村庄的514个样本问卷调查数据,运用Logit计量经济模型,以农村居民属性特征和城镇综合环境评价为切入点,分析农村居民城镇迁居意愿及其影响因素。研究表明：40岁以下、高中/中专/技校的教育程度、年收入3万元以上的高收入的农村居民群体城镇迁居意愿强烈,农村居民对城镇的教育质量、消费服务和就业机会的满意度评价显著影响其城镇迁移意愿,而对城镇的医疗水平、市容市貌等满意度评价对其城镇迁居意愿影响并不显著。

关键词: 农村居民, 城镇迁居意愿, Logit模型, 河南周口

Abstract:

：Rural-to-urban migration has been research hotspots since the 1950s. Perspectives of migration research diversify from econometric model to application of social theory during the last sixty years. Most of researches focus on regional migration and migrant workers′integration into urban life from city perspective.Up to now, few studies pay attention to rural residents′intention of migrating to towns. Recently the "new-type national urbanization plan (2014-2020)" reemphasizes on people-oriented basic urbanization ideas. In the realistic context of difficult integration of floating population into the city, increasing value of agricultural land and added assets, increasing volume of agricultural land transfer of use right, it is of great significance to analyze rural residents′ migration intention and its influencing factors from a bottom-up perspective. It also has far-reaching influence for the potentiality of future urbanization and the choice of urbanization path. In this article,Zhoukou in Henan Province is taken as a research example, rural residents′intention of migrating to town and its influencing factors are analyzed. Logit econometric model is utilized to study the influences on rural residents′migration intention of rural residents′attributes and comprehensive evaluation of urban environment. Altogether 514 questionnaires samples were collected from 17 traditional agricultural villages distributed in 10 administrative unit of county level.There are two important findings: 1) There is an obvious relationship between rural residents′ attributes and migration intention. The results show that three groups are more inclined to migrate to town, who are under 40, graduated from high school ortechnical school and have annual income over 30000 RMBS.2) The satisfaction evaluation of urban comprehensive environment has a strong influence onrural residents’ migration intention. Teach quality,consumption service andemployment opportunities of urban environmental factors are more important to rural residents than medical care and urban appearance.Finally, the following suggestions helpful to promote traditional agricultural areas′sustainable urbanization process are given according to rural residents′migration influencing factors.1) Promoting those urban functions of education quality, business services and employment opportunities to create a more attractive environment for rural residents′ settlement in towns.2)Strengthening rural residents′ training of technical skills and improve their ability to afford the cost of urban life.3) Improving the institutional environment to push forward rural residents′ migration into towns, such as hukou system, family planning, rural land transfer, housing security and public services.4) Improving the invest and life environment to attract those migrant workers′ returning and starting ventures to enhance the degree of local urbanization; 5) Choosing suburban locations as ideal places for constructing new rural communities to guide rural residents′ smooth local urbanization.

Key words: rural resident, urbanization migration intention, Logit model, Zhoukou, Henan

中图分类号:

F291

王利伟, 冯长春, 许顺才. 城镇化进程中传统农区村民城镇迁居意愿分析——基于河南周口问卷调查数据[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(12): 1445-1452.

Li-wei WANG, Chang-chun FENG, Shun-cai XU. Exploring Urban Migrate Intention of Rural Residents in Traditional Agricultural Area Undertaking Urbanization Process: Based on Questionnaire Data of Zhoukou, Henan[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2014, 34(12): 1445-1452.

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变量	变量定义	样本均值（方差）	代表自变量
Migration-intention	城镇迁居点为1,村级居民点为0	0.14（0.12）	/
V₁	男性为0,女性为1	0.25（0.19）	性别
V₂	30岁以下为1,30~39岁为2,40~49岁为3,50岁及以上为4	3.25（0.76）	年龄结构
V₃	30岁以下为1,否则为0	0.06（0.06）
V₄	30~40岁为1,否则为0	0.17（0.14）
V₅	小学及以下为1,初中为2,高中、中专、技校为3,大专以上为4	1.83（0.61）	教育程度
V₆	高中、中专、技校为1,否则为0	0.15（0.13）
V₇	大专以上为1,否则为0	0.03（0.03）
V₈	3人及以下为0,3~5人为1,6~10人2,10人以上为3	1.43（0.40）	家庭构成
V₉	种植、养殖为1,做小生意、打零工、本地帮工为2,外出打工为3,经商为4	1.32（0.59）	职业构成
V₁₀	外出打工为1,否则为0	0.09（0.09）
V₁₁	经商为1,否则为0	0.03（0.03）
V₁₂	1万元以下低收入为1,1~3万元中等收入为2,3万元以上高收入为3	1.96（0.56）	家庭年收入水平
V₁₃	3万元以上高收入为1,否则为0	0.26（0.19）	家庭年收入水平
V₁₄	愿意土地流转为1,否则为0	0.38（0.24）	土地流转意愿
V₁₅	参加农民专业合作社为1,否则为0	0.05（0.05）	是否参加农业专业合作社
V₁₆	农村房屋建筑面积小于等于150m²为1,150~250m²为2,250 m²以上为3	1.53（0.76）	家庭农业资产状况
V₁₇	农地承包面积小于等于0.2 hm²（3亩）为1,0.2~0.4 hm²（3~6亩）为2,0.4 hm²（6亩）以上为3	2.02（0.66）	家庭农业资产状况

变量	系数	S.E.	Wald	显著性	Exp(B)
V₃	1.012^*	0.417	5.901	0.015	2.752
V₄	0.723^*	0.285	6.413	0.011	2.060
V₆	1.049^***	0.279	14.131	0.000	2.856
V₁₀	0.778^*	0.347	5.026	0.025	2.177
V₁₃	0.780^**	0.246	10.023	0.002	2.181

变量名	变量定义	样本均值（方差）
Migration_intention	城镇迁居点为1,村级居民点为0	0.14（0.12）
Teach_quality	1~5从非常不满意到非常满意	2.25（1.27）
Medical_care	1~5从非常不满意到非常满意	2.14（1.14）
Consumption_service	1~5从非常不满意到非常满意	2.38（1.12）
Employment_opportunities	1~5从非常不满意到非常满意	2.47（1.54）
Urban_appearance	1~5从非常不满意到非常满意	2.39（1.52）

变量	系数	S.E.	Wald	显著性	Exp(B)
Teach-quality	0.242^*	0.107	5.102	0.024	1.274
Consumption-service	0.465^***	0.123	14.368	0.000	1.593
Employment-opportunities	0.250^*	0.104	5.774	0.016	1.284