地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (9): 1085-1092.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.09.1085

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1982~2010年广州市人口增长与空间分布演变研究

周春山(), 边艳   

  1. 1.中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东 广州 510275
    2. 广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2013-04-16 修回日期:2013-10-15 出版日期:2014-09-10 发布日期:2014-09-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:周春山(1964-),男,河南信阳人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事区域发展与城乡规划、城市地理学研究。E-mail:zhoucs@mail.sysu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(41271182)资助

The Growth and Distribution of Population in Guangzhou City in 1982-2000

Chun-shan ZHOU(), Yan BIAN   

  1. 1.School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275, China
    2.Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation,Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275, China
  • Received:2013-04-16 Revised:2013-10-15 Online:2014-09-10 Published:2014-09-10

摘要:

基于第三、四、五和六次人口普查资料,利用数学模型对1982~2010年广州市近30 a来的人口增长与空间分布规律深入探讨。得出以下结论:① 近30 a来广州市人口保持稳定增长,人口分布总体上趋于分散,人口变化趋于缓和,尤其是近10 a来广州中心城区人口密度缓慢降低,近郊区人口密度较快增长,远郊区人口密度逐步增加的特征更加明显;② 人口空间分布由“峰值单中心+外围小中心”结构演变为“扁平化多中心+外围小中心”;③ 广州市人口发展已进入成熟晚期阶段向老年阶段的过渡时期,但中心城区人口缺口尚未出现;④ 广州市人口郊区化始于20世纪90年代末,2000年以来郊区化明显加快,属于市中心发展型郊区化。

关键词: 人口增长, 人口空间分布, 郊区化, 广州

Abstract:

The growth and change of population are closely related to the urban development. The regularity of urban population changes provides supports for the policy-making concerned urban development. As the frontier region of reform and opening up, Guangzhou has experienced a rapid economic, social development, and the population change in the metropolitans is earlier than others in China. Using the data of the third, the fourth, the fifth and the sixth censuses at a Neighborhood (Jie Dao in Chinese) and Town (the NT) level by the mathematic methods of density analysis, concentration index, trend surface analysis and regression analysis model, article reveals the characteristics and law of the population growth and distribution in Guangzhou. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the population growth of Guangzhou can be divided into three stages: the rapid growth stage, from 1986 to 1994, with annual growth rate of 1.74 %; the fluctuation growth stage, from 1995 to 2003, with that of 1.59%; and the slow growth stage, from 2004 to 2010, with that of 1.47 %. The total population has a stable increase in 1986-2010. 2) There is an obvious spatial difference for population growth at the NT level. The number of the NT with the population reduction was increase, while the NT which has rapid population growth has spred from central district to the near suburb and the outer suburb. The distribution of population in Guangzhou maintained a de-centralized regular pattern. Especially last 10 years, it become more and more obvious than the population density in central city is decreased slowly, rapid increase in near suburbs, and stable increase in outer suburbs; 3) The population distribution of Guangzhou presented to be decentralization and equalization. Population concentration index decreased gradually and the trend of population gravity migration moved eastward significantly. The spatial distribution of population has a significant change, which presents a typical “peak value single center + small centers outside” space structure before 2000. Since 2000, the population density in central district expands eastward and northward, the population density in near suburb has a rapid increase, a new population density peak was formed and then spatial distribution presents an obvious “flatten main centers + small centers outside” space structure in recent 10 years. 4) The population growth of Guangzhou was at growing stage before 1990s, was at a mature stage in 2000, and now is in the transition phase from the stage of mature late to the stage of old age, but the population gap in center city has not appeared until now; 5) the suburbanization in Guangzhou, the type of a central district development, had appeared since 1990s, and became obvious since 2000s in Guangzhou. 6) There was an obvious difference in population growth and spatial distribution between metropolitan of China and the developed countries. The population growth in most metropolitan of China is in the earlier stage of urbanization, while most of the developed countries have already moved to the stage of re-urbanization.

Key words: population growth, population distribution, suburbanization, Guangzhou

中图分类号: 

  • C922