地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 910-916.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.06.014

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水资源可持续性的参数敏感性分析

邝远华1,2, 汪丽娜3(), 陈晓宏1,4, 刘丙军1,4   

  1. 1.中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东 广州 510275
    2.佛山市水务局,广东 佛山 528000
    3.华南师范大学地理科学学院,广东 广州 510631
    4.中山大学/华南地区水循环和水安全广东普通高校重点实验室,广东 广州 510275
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-19 修回日期:2015-07-14 出版日期:2016-10-20 发布日期:2016-10-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:邝远华(1978-),男,高级工程师,博士,主要研究方向:城市化进程的水资源效应。E-mail:384797148@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41501021,51210013)、国家科技支撑计划(2012BAC21B0103)、水利部公益项目(201201094, 201301002-02)、广东省水利科技创新项目(2011-11)

Analysis on Parameters Sensitivity for the Sustainability of Water Resources

Yuanhua Kuang1,2, Lina Wang3(), Xiaohong Chen1,4, Bingjun Liu1,4   

  1. 1.Center of Water Resource and Environment Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong, China
    2. Foshan Water Authorities, Foshan 528000,Guangdong, China
    3. School of Geography Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, Guangdong, China
    4. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong Higher Education Institutes, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2015-03-19 Revised:2015-07-14 Online:2016-10-20 Published:2016-10-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41501021,51210013), National Science and Technology Support Program (2012BAC21B0103), Public Welfare Project of Ministry of Water Resources (201201094, 201301002-02), Water Conservancy Science and Technology Innovation Project of Guangdong Province (2011-11)

摘要:

通过界定敏感性参数的含义,认为参数的敏感性是系统对某一指参数的变化的敏感程度,以此为依据建立M-YAS模型分析参数的敏感性。以佛山市为例选取37 项影响水资源可持续的参数,分析水资源可持续性的参数敏感性问题,结果表明:37项反映水资源可持续性的参数中,仅13 项参数(生活用水定额、林牧渔畜用水量、工业用水定额、农田灌溉用水量、工业用水量、耕地灌溉定额、万元工业增加值用水量、火电冷却用水量、城乡生活用水量、工业节水、万元生产总值用水量、生活节水和农业节水)对于水资源可持续性的目标层而言是敏感性参数,且13项参数均来自用水结构与效率的准则层,说明区域水资源可持续性的目标层对用水结构与效率的准则层较为敏感。

关键词: 参数, 敏感性, 目标层

Abstract:

Water resources endowment, economic level, science and technology level and management are influence the sustainable development of water resources. There is different impact for the different indicators on regional water resources sustainability. The subtle differences of the indicators, which is a sensitive indicator of regional water resources sustainability, can lead to a greater difference in regional water resources sustainability. The sensitivity of Regional Water Resources Sustainability provides a more subtle decision support for macro management of water resources, which makes the efficient use of water resources and the purpose of the study. The study on regional water resources sustainable sensitivity, which appears large differences in the sustainability of regional water resources due to the difference in factors, provides more subtle decision support in macro management of water resources; makes more efficient use of water resources. Sensitivity studies can identify the sensitivity factors have important influence on the sustainability of water resources from many uncertainties, Foshan was taken as the research object of the paper, which analysised parameter sensitivity of the sustainability of water resources. This article established sensitivity analysis model (M-YAS), and selected 37 parameters, which affect the water resources sustainable.The results showed that: only 13 parameters from 37 the parameters is sensitive parameters for water resources sustainability target layer. And the domestic water quota is most sensitive for the target layer, followed by forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and livestock water. Another important conclusion was shown as: 13 parameters were from the structure and efficiency on the basis of the water layer. It showed that the goal of the sustainability of water resources and efficiency on the basis of the structure of water layers is more sensitive. The results displayed that the sustainability of water resources in Foshan city is affected by 13 indicators reflecting the structure and efficiency of water.

Key words: parameters, sensitive, the target layer

中图分类号: 

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