地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 965-972.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.07.001

• •    下一篇

经济地理学视角下中国经济新常态的格局与类型划分

陈明星1(), 陆大道1, 龚颖华1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-20 修回日期:2016-05-30 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:陈明星(1982-),男,安徽巢湖人,博士,副研究员,主要从事城市化与区域发展研究,E-mail:chenmx@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点基金(41530634,41530751,41430336)、中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所“秉维”优秀青年人才基金(2015RC202)资助

The Pattern and Regional Type of China’s ‘New Normal’ from the View of Economic Geography

Mingxing Chen1(), Dadao Lu1, Yinghua Gong1,2   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2015-11-20 Revised:2016-05-30 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-07-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41530634, 41530751, 41430336),Programme of Bingwe Excellent Young Scientists of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences(2015RC202)

摘要:

面对外部国际需求萎缩,内部支撑经济高速增长的传统人口红利、资源环境红利等逐渐衰减,中国经济增长将面临逐步回落到中低增速的“新常态”。从经济地理学角度开展针对中国经济新常态这一新事像及其格局研究具有重要意义。以全国31个省区单元(港澳台除外)为研究尺度,通过关键指标,分析了中国经济新常态的格局态势,开展了类型划分。结果表明:近年来,中国财政收入、电力消费量、铁路货运量指标,主要行业门类,以及投资、出口和消费的增速均呈现明显下降,绝大多数省区与全国发展态势保持一致。将全国31个省区划分为较快增长、下行压力较小和下行压力较大3类区域,下行压力较大区域细分发展阶段型、整体衰退型、能源原材料型以及其他等4种类型,不同类型区域具有明显的地理集聚特征。针对这一轮经济下行风险,不同地区应采取不同的对策,重点关注东北区域的整体衰退风险,以及山西等省能源原材料省区的经济下行风险。

关键词: 经济新常态, 格局, 类型, 经济地理学, 中国

Abstract:

In face of the decreasing external demand and the population, resources and environment bonuses, the economic growth in China will gradually dipped to a low growth. The researches on objects and pattern of China’s ‘New Normal’ from the view of Economic Geography have great influence on the development of China. Through certain key indexes, this article focused on the trend of economy and the regional type in the 31 provinces of China. The results indicated that: In the past few years, the growth rate of fiscal revenue, electricity consumption, and volume of railway freight has declined sharply, and meanwhile, many primary industries and ‘three carriages’ (fixed asset investment, export, and total retail sales of consumer goods) as well. Many provinces have the same tendency as the whole China. Moreover, the total 31 provinces are divided into three types: relatively fast growth, light downward pressure, and great downward pressure individually. Provinces with great downward pressure are further divided into four types: developing regions, overall declining regions, energy-owned regions, and others.The same type of regions is geographic agglomeration obviously. Faced with this round of economic downside, different regions should take different measures, and the developing risks of Northeast China and energy-owned regions such as Shanxi should be emphasized on.

Key words: China’s ‘New Normal’, pattern, type, Economic Geography, China

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9