地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (7): 1050-1056.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.07.011

• • 上一篇    下一篇

引入调节变量的入境旅游对消费物价影响分析——基于1999~2014年香港季度数据的实证研究

查瑞波1,2(), 孙根年1(), 董治宝1, 黄驰1   

  1. 1. 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西 西安 710199
    2. 华盛顿州立大学酒店管理学院,华盛顿 普尔曼 99164,美国
  • 收稿日期:2015-11-23 修回日期:2016-02-04 出版日期:2016-07-20 发布日期:2016-10-24
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:查瑞波(1989-),男,陕西咸阳人,博士研究生,主要从事旅游经济与可持续发展研究。E-mail:rbzha@snnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(12BJY131)、国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAD15B02)、国家留学基金项目(201506870028)、国家旅游局“万名旅游英才计划”项目(WMYC20151059)资助

Influence of Inbound Tourism to Consumer Prices with Moderator: Empirical Study of Hong Kong base on 1999-2014 Statistics

Ruibo Zha1,2(), Gennian Sun1(), Zhibao Dong1, Chi Huang1   

  1. 1. College of Tourism and Environment, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710199, Shaanxi, China
    2. School of Hospitality Business Management, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4742, USA
  • Received:2015-11-23 Revised:2016-02-04 Online:2016-07-20 Published:2016-10-24
  • Supported by:
    National Social Science Foundation of China (12BJY131), Key Technology Research and Development Program (2014BAD15B02), China Scholarship Council Program (201506870028), China Tourism Bureau “ Tourism Elites Program” (WMYC20151059)

摘要:

引入调节变量,采用香港1999~2014年的季度统计数据建立一个新实证模型,利用Pearson相关性分析方法、计量经济学非平稳数据分析方法和Granger因果关系检验方法系统分析了入境旅游、经济增长和消费物价之间的关系。研究结果表明:入境旅游、经济增长和消费物价之间存在相关性和稳定的长期均衡关系;入境旅游对消费物价的带动性高于经济增长。入境旅游与消费物价、经济增长和消费物价、入境旅游和经济增长之间都存在单向Granger因果关系,入境旅游发展必然带动经济增长并影响消费物价。入境旅游对消费物价产生影响的原因主要是入境游客规模扩大和结构单一;负面影响主要表现在影响当地底层民众生活品质、损害当地旅游形象和主客感情;对策主要为拓展入境旅游类型并使旅游发展红利惠及底层民众。

关键词: 入境旅游, 消费物价, 多元协整分析, Granger因果检验, 香港

Abstract:

Inbound tourism development not only drives economic growth, but also significantly influences the local goods prices in the inbound tourism destination. This article tries to build a new theoretical model to explore both GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and inbound tourism’s impact on CPI (consumer price index) in the context of Hong Kong. The study collects seasonal data of inbound tourism, CPI and GDP of Hong Kong from the year 1999 to 2014. Then, this article conducts following methods to complete the analysis. Firstly, it applies SPSS software to analyze the Pearson correlation of the 3 variables; Secondly, it uses Eviews software to estimate the long-term cointegration relationship of the variables; Thirdly, it introduces Granger causality analysis and compulsory response analysis to evaluate the quantitative relationship of inbound tourism, CPI and GDP. In conclusion, the results consisted of 5 aspects. 1) Inbound tourism, GDP and CPI has correlation between each other. 2) It has a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between inbound tourism, GDP and CPI. Meanwhile, the impact of inbound tourism on CPI is higher than the impact of GDP. 3) The unidirectional Granger causality relationship exists under inbound tourism to CPI, GDP to CPI, and inbound tourism to GDP. 4) Compulsory response of CPI to CPI and inbound tourism is sensitive than GDP, while the compulsory response of CPI to GDP has showed more hysteresis effect. 5) The reasons why inbound tourism has a significant impact on the consumer prices is that the inbound tourists scale has become larger and larger from 1999 to 2014, and the inbound market of Hong Kong has been occupied mostly by mainland Chinese tourists in the recently years. The negative impacts are that some local people consider their life quality to be affected by tourism. Moreover, the tourism image of Hong Kong has also been damaged because some protests had violent behaviors toward mainland tourists. Besides, the mutual trust between tourists and residents in Hong Kong has been ruined. Finally, the article suggested some solution for the problem, for example, the government should develop more tourism attraction to meet tourists’ different tourism demand, encouraging more local people to join in the tourism development of Hong Kong and make sure the residents to achieve actual benefits from inbound tourism prosperity.

Key words: inbound tourism, consumer prices, multi-cointegration, Granger causality, Hong Kong

中图分类号: 

  • F59