基于生产函数视角的城镇化动力机制研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.03.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从柯布-道格拉斯生产函数角度出发,构建了就业、资本及人均技术进步三要素与城镇化发展的动力机制模型,并使用中国1990~2011年社会经济数据对模型进行实证。实证结果表明：就业、资本及人均技术进步三者对中国城镇化具有较强的解释力,可解释中国城镇化增长的98.83%,说明所构建城镇化动力机制模型具有其合理性。同时,实证结果也表明就业在中国城镇化发展中起着举足轻重的地位,随着就业产出弹性增加,中国城镇化发展也相应提速。研究表明：从促进城镇化发展的角度出发,转变经济发展方式和保持经济发展速度同样重要;积极转变经济发展模式,提升就业在经济发展中的地位,方能促进中国城镇化快速健康发展。

关键词: 城镇化, 就业, 生产函数

Abstract:

It is of significance in theory and practice to make a thorough study on dynamic mechanism of urbanization for the construction of new urbanization. However, nowadays researchers ignored the theoretical analysis on dynamic mechanism of urbanization, but turned to put the key point of research on statistical analysis. Based on Cobb-Douglas production function, this article establishes a new dynamic model of urbanization and its main influence factors: employment, capital and per capital technological progress, and takes social and economic data of China in 1990-2011 for the empirical study. The empirical results proved the rationality of the model put forward in this article, in which 98.83% of the change in China’s urbanization can be explained by the change of employment, capital and per capital technological progress. The result shows that capital is the most influential factor on urbanization, for each 1 % increase in capital will lead to a 0.656 5% increase in urbanization level from 1990-2011, twice more than that of employment. The result also shows that the employment plays an important role in China’s urbanization, with employment output elasticity increasing, the development of China's urbanization also speed-up, which could be concluded that the impact of employment is more and more evident over time. This research indicates that the result of urbanization varies with economic development model, and an economic development model dominated by heavy industry could lead to the lag of urbanization level. Thus, it is of equal importance between changing economic growth mode and keeping economic growth rate for the sustainable development of China’s urbanization. Differentiated economic development model is needed in different stages of the urbanization process. In the eastern China, economic development should be based on knowledge, technology-intensive industries, and more attention should be paid on technical progress, which will help to improve the quality of urbanization. In the central and the western China, economic development should be based on knowledge, technology-intensive industries, and more attention should be paid on the improvement of opening up, which will help to accelerate urbanization directly. What’s more, the status of employment should be elevated in economic development. A number of measures need to be instituted in order to promote the development of people-oriented urbanization, which include bring employment increase into government official promotion evaluation mechanism, carrying out labor skill training and increasing workers’ income. More efforts need to be made in changing economic growth mode and enhancing the statue of employment in economic development in order to keep rapid and healthy development of China’s urbanization.

Key words: Urbanization, Employment, Production Function

中图分类号:

K902

罗奎, 方创琳, 马海涛. 基于生产函数视角的城镇化动力机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(3): 394-399.

Kui Luo, Chuanglin Fang, Haitao Ma. Dynamic Mechanism of Urbanization Based on Production Function[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(3): 394-399.

图/表 2

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年份	截距C	系数α	系数β	R²	AdjR²	F值
1990~2011	-0.9521^***	0.3435^***	0.6565	0.9858	0.9850	1251.685^***
1992~2001	-1.0921^***	0.2481^***	0.7519	0.9787	0.9761	368.434^***
2002~2011	-0.6288^***	0.4695^***	0.5305	0.9841	0.9821	493.6798^***
1996~2011	-0.8657^***	0.3795^***	0.6205	0.9859	0.9848	975.4522^***

年份	截距q	系数p	R²	AdjR²	F值
1990~2011	37.9809^***	13.4889^***	0.9889	0.9883	1602.992^***
1992~2001	35.4625^***	12.0907^***	0.9217	0.9119	94.1520^***
2001~2011	42.7227^***	12.5530^***	0.9966	0.9961	2310.857^***
1996~2011	39.0314^***	13.9629^***	0.9928	0.9923	1933.824^***