都市区空间结构与经济发展的互动关系研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

文章采用结构方程模型实证检验空间结构与经济发展的互动关系。研究发现,中国都市区已经进入多中心分散阶段,空间结构与经济发展存在因果关系,即经济发展水平的提高会扩大人口规模,规模增加则导致集聚不经济上升,并促进空间结构多中心化。多中心化后的空间结构由于降低了集聚不经济而进一步提高生产率。因而,传统地理学中关于两者互动发展的描述得到实证支持;同时明确了多中心化的直接动力是人口规模的增加,而不是经济发展水平的提高。这些发现对于优化当前中国的城市与区域空间战略具有重要的启示。

关键词: 空间结构, 经济发展, 互动关系, 结构方程模型

Abstract:

Urban spatial structure is believed to be born out of socio-economic development, so it is subject to the stage of economic development, and also influences the economic activities. The interactive relationship between spatial structure and economic development has always been the core issue of economic geography. Exploring this relationship helps to optimize the urban spatial structure and benefit economic performance. Previous related studies are abundant with theoretical descriptions, but lack of empirical supports, and some mechanisms are not elaborated clearly enough. This article examines the interaction between spatial structure and economic development with econometric models. Traditional linear regression models with single equation can only test one-way relationship, this study uses structural equation models to estimate the relationship between several dependent variables such as urban labor productivity, population and polycentricity from an overall perspective. The results show that: 1) Most Chinese cities have entered the stage of morphologically polycentric spatial structure; 2)There exists an interactive causal relationship between spatial structure and economic development; 3) The polycentricity is driven by urban population size, rather than economic growth. The concrete circular causality between spatial structure and economic development is as follows, the population expands with the economic development, then promotes the formation of polycentric spatial structure probably driven by the rise of agglomeration diseconomy; the increasing polycentricity improves the urban labor productivity likely due to the weakened agglomeration diseconomy. In addition, the polycentric spatial structure is also closely related to high second industry ratio and proportion of small firms; and urban population is depended on the historical population and industrial structure, higher ratio of second industry and more population in 1953 lead to bigger size of urban population. These findings have important policy implications for optimizing urban spatial strategies in China. Overall, polycentricity should be encouraged by urban spatial policies in China. Moreover, considering that the population size rather than economic growth boosts the polycentricity, for megacities like Beijing and Shanghai or cities in developed coastal areas, the polycentric strategy can be used to reduce agglomeration diseconomy and improve economic performance; for small and medium-sized cities or cities in less developed middle and west China, policy should also be conducted to decrease the external diseconomies of agglomeration, the mono-centric spatial structure can still benefit the economic performance there.

Key words: spatial structure, economic development, interactive relationship, structural equation model

中图分类号:

F129.9/K902

张婷麟, 孙斌栋. 都市区空间结构与经济发展的互动关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(4): 512-518.

Tinglin Zhang, Bindong Sun. The Interaction Between Urban Spatial Structure and Economic Development[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(4): 512-518.

图/表 4

表1

表2

表3

图1

参考文献 26

[1]	Dicken P, Lloyd P E.Location in space: Theoretical perspectives in economic geography[M]. New York: Harper & Row, 1990.
[2]	Krugman P.First nature, second nature, and metropolitan location[J]. Journal of regional science, 1993, 33(2): 129-144. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1993.tb00217.x
[3]	Perroux F.A note on the notion of growth pole[J]. Applied Economy, 1955, 1(2): 307-320.
[4]	Myrdal G.Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions[M]. London: Gerald Duckworth, 1957.
[5]	Werner Sombart.The Theory of the Growth Zone[M]. New York:United Nations, 1950:138-153.
[6]	陆大道. 区域发展及其空间结构. 北京: 科学出版社, 1998.
	[Lu Dadao.Regional Development and Spatial Structure.Beijing: Science Press, 1995]
[7]	Friedmann J.Regional Development Policy: A Case Study of Venezuela[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 1966.
[8]	田杰, 何丹. 中部地区长江沿线城市群空间结构与经济发展研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2014, 23(2): 85-93. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2014.02.010
	[Tian Jie, He Dan.Spatial structure and economy development of large city clusters along Yangtze river in central China. World Regional Studies, 2014,23(2):85-93.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2014.02.010
[9]	史雅娟, 朱永彬, 冯德显,等. 中原城市群多中心网络式空间发展模式研究[J]. 地理科学, 2012, 32(12): 1430-1438. doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z
	[Shi Yajuan, Zhu Yongbin, Feng Dexian et al.Polycentric Network Development Patterns of Zhongyuan Urban Agglomeration. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(12): 1430-1438.] doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0280-z
[10]	刘乃全, 刘学华, 赵丽岗. 中国区域经济发展与空间结构的演变——基于改革开放30年时序变动的特征分析[J]. 财经研究, 2008, 34(11): 76-87. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9952.2008.11.007
	[Liu Naiquan, Liu Xuehua, Zhao Ligang.The evolution of eegional economic development and spatial structure in China since 1978. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2008, 34(11): 76-87.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9952.2008.11.007
[11]	杨显明, 焦华富, 许吉黎. 基于发生学视角的淮南城市空间生长过程、特征及影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(5): 563-570.
	[Yang Xianming, Jiao Huafu, Xu Jili.Process, Characteristics and Influence Factors of the Huainan City’s Spatial Expansion from The Embryology Perspective. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(5): 563-570.]
[12]	Marshall A.Principles of Economics: An introductory volume[M]. New York: Macmillan,1920.
[13]	Fujita M, Krugman P R, Venables A.The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions, and International Trade[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2001.
[14]	Martin P, Ottaviano G I P. Growth and agglomeration[J]. International Economic Review, 2001, 42(4): 947-968.
[15]	Fujita M, Ogawa H.Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1982, 12(2): 161-196. doi: 10.1016/0166-0462(82)90031-X
[16]	McMillen D P, Smith S C. The number of subcenters in large urban areas[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2003, 53(3): 321-338. doi: 10.1016/S0094-1190(03)00026-3
[17]	Henderson J.Efficiency of Resource Usage and City Size[J]. Journal of Urban Economic, 1986, 19(1): 47-70.
[18]	Meijers E J, Burger M J.Spatial structure and productivity in US metropolitan areas[J]. Environment and Planning, 2010, 42(6): 1383-1402.
[19]	孙斌栋, 王旭辉, 蔡寅寅. 特大城市多中心空间结构的经济绩效——中国实证研究[J]. 城市规划, 2015,(8): 39-45. doi: 10.11819/cpr20150806a
	[Sun Bindong, Wang Xuhui, Cai Yinyin.Empirical study on the economic performance of polycentric spatial structure of mega—Cities in China.Urban Planning, 2015,(8):39-45.] doi: 10.11819/cpr20150806a
[20]	孙斌栋, 魏旭红, 王婷. 洛杉矶学派及其对人文地理学的影响[J]. 地理科学, 2015, 35(4): 402-409.
	[Sun Bindong,Wei Xuhong, Wang Ting.Los Angeles School and Its Impacts on Disciplines of Human Geography. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(4): 402-409.]
[21]	Parr J B.The polycentric urban region: A closer inspection[J]. Regional Studies, 2004, 38(3): 231-240. doi: 10.1080/003434042000211114
[22]	孙斌栋, 李琬. 城市规模分布的经济绩效——基于中国市域数据的实证研究[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(3): 328-334. doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.002
	[Sun Bindong, Li Wan.City Size Distribution and Economic Performance: Evidence from City-Regions in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(3): 328-334.] doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.002
[23]	Henderson J V.The sizes and types of cities[J]. The American Economic Review, 1974, 64(4): 640-656. doi: 10.1257/aer.103.3.701
[24]	Glaeser E L, Kahn M E, Arnott R et al. Decentralized Employment and the Transformation of the American City[J]. Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs, 2001, 2(1): 1-63. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.263257
[25]	陆铭,向宽虎,陈钊.中国的城市化和城市体系调整:基于文献的评论[J].世界经济, 2011, 34(6): 3-25.
	[Lu Ming, Xiang Kuanhu, Chen Zhao.Chinese urbanization and urban system adjustment: Based on the literature review. The Journal of World Economy, 2011, 34(6):3-25.]
[26]	温忠麟, 侯杰泰, 马什赫伯特. 结构方程模型检验: 拟合指数与卡方准则[J]. 心理学报, 2004, 36(2): 186-194.
	[Wen Zhonglin, Hau Kit-Tai, Herbert W M.Structural equation model testing: Cutoff criteria for goodness of fitindices and chi-square test. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2004,36(2):186-194.

变量名	均值	标准差	最小值	中位数	最大值
ln劳均GDP（ln万元/人）	12.190	0.460	11.080	12.130	14.370
ln劳均资本存量（ln万元/人）	3.060	0.460	1.840	3.040	4.530
中学师生比	0.070	0.020	0.020	0.070	0.250
政府支出比重	0.110	0.070	0.020	0.090	0.930
ln人口规模（ln人）	13.770	0.810	10.970	13.690	16.710
二产从业/三产从业	1.040	0.650	0.090	0.920	3.880
ln1953年常住人口规模（ln人）	12.520	0.990	10.130	12.400	15.990
1月份平均气温（℃）	0.780	9.160	-28.700	2.200	22.000
小企业比重	0.890	0.060	0.540	0.900	0.980
lnP₁（ln多中心度指数P₁）	0.280	0.290	0	0.260	1.850
lnP₂（ln多中心度指数P₂）	0.260	0.280	0	0.200	1.850
lnP₃（ln多中心度指数P₃）	0.200	0.220	0	0.160	1.550

	模型1	模型2	模型3
lnP₁
ln劳均GDP	0.082^**		0.041
ln人口规模		0.054^***	0.047^***
二产从业/三产从业	0.045^**	0.049^**	0.047^**
中学师生比	0.722	0.874	0.814
小企业比重	0.647^***	0.740^***	0.675^***
常数	-1.477^***	-1.315^***	-1.654^***
ln劳均GDP
lnP₁	0.031	0.165^**	0.098
ln劳均资本存量	0.698^***	0.690^***	0.694^***
中学师生比	0.682	0.584	0.633
政府支出比重	-1.199^***	-1.194^***	-1.196^***
ln人口规模	0.079^***	0.072^***	0.075^***
常数	9.044^***	9.139^***	9.092^***
样本数	285	285	285
Chi²	(4)12.06	(4)5.30	(3)4.06
Prob>Chi²	0.0169	0.2580	0.2553
RMSEA	0.084	0.034	0.035
CFI	0.976	0.996	0.997

	模型4	模型5	模型6
	lnP₁	lnP₂	lnP₃
lnP
ln人口规模	0.052^***	0.160^***	0.065^***
中学师生比	0.873	1.640^**	1.085
二产从业/三产从业	0.049^**	0.087^***	0.064^***
小企业比重	0.742^***	0.839^***	0.977^***
常数	-1.291^***	-2.806^***	-1.641^***
ln劳均GDP
lnP	0.164^**	0.106^*	0.126^**
ln人口规模	0.052^**	0.043^*	0.052^**
ln劳均资本存量	0.697^***	0.700^***	0.697^***
中学师生比	0.554	0.509	0.562
政府支出比重	-1.232^***	-1.239^***	-1.231^***
常数	9.404^***	9.517^***	9.398^***
ln人口规模
ln劳均GDP	0.169^**	0.170^**	0.170^**
ln1953年常住人口规模	0.648^***	0.648^***	0.648^***
二产从业/三产从业	0.135^***	0.135^***	0.135^***
1月份平均气温	-0.002	-0.002	-0.002
常数	3.461^***	3.455^***	3.461^***
样本数	285	285	285
Chi²	(11)17.58	(11)17.71	(11)17.62
Prob>Chi²	0.0919	0.089	0.091
RMSEA	0.046	0.046	0.046
CFI	0.990	0.990	0.990