基于非期望产出的城市发展效率时空差异探讨——以中国东部沿海地区城市为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于非期望产出视角,采用SBM模型测度2005~2014年中国东部沿海地区53个城市（不包括港、澳、台、三沙市）的城市发展效率,并分析其时空差异特征及其影响因素。结果表明：① 考虑非期望产出的城市发展效率值低于不考虑非期望产出的城市发展效率值,并且更符合城市实际发展; ② 中国东部沿海地区城市发展效率整体水平不高,波动幅度大,阶段特征明显,整体呈先上升后下降的趋势;③ 在时空分析特征中,城市发展效率的区域差异明显,近2 a有缩小的趋势;整体城市发展效率空间呈现“北部围绕青岛市,中部围绕上海市,南部围绕深圳市”的发展格局;④ 在影响因素分析中,经济规模对城市发展效率产生正向影响,第二产业结构水平和污染处理能力对城市发展效率产生负向影响,传统的加工制造业、高耗能重污染工业和污染处理不到位是导致城市发展效率降低的主要原因。

关键词: 城市发展效率, 非期望产出, 时空格局, 沿海城市

Abstract:

We can grasp the distribution of resources, utilization efficiency and propulsion paths in the process of urbanization in China’s coastal areas by measuring the urban development efficiency, which can provide references for policy and experience for sustainable development. This article is based on the viewpoint of undesirable output, measuring the urban development efficiency of 53 coastal cities in China (excluding Hong Kong,Macao, Taiwan and Sansha) during 2005 to 2014 with the SBM model, and analyzing its spatial-temporal disparities and affecting factors. The main results are summarized as follows: 1) The urban development efficiency value taking consideration of undesirable output is lower than the one without consideration of undesirable output, which turns out that undesirable output has a significant effect on urban development efficiency and the development efficiency value considered it matches the actual situation of urban development better. 2) The urban development efficiency of the coastal cities is not high on the whole,it fluctuates widely and has obvious characteristic of stages, which shows a trend of rising in the first and declining then as a whole. During 2005 to 2008, the percentage of the cities with highest development efficiency increased from 15.09% to 28.30%,and the percentage of the cities with medium efficiency increased from 7.55% to 28.3%;While in 2011,the two percentages mentioned above declined to 18.87% and 22.64%,and in 2014,they went a step further in declining,there were only 9.43% of the cities with highest development efficiency and 11.32% with medium development efficiency. 3) The spatial disparity of urban development is significant though in a trend of shrinking recent two years. on the whole ,the urban development efficiency presents a development pattern of” surrounding Qingdao in the north, surrounding Shanghai in the middle and surrounding Shenzhen in the south”. Which means that Qingdao, Shanghai and Shenzhen has become the three poles in aspect of urban development efficiency. 4) The level of second industry structure and ability of pollution treatment have negative impacts on urban development efficiency,while the scale of economy has a positive impact on the efficiency of urban development. The main reasons leading to lower urban development efficiency contain traditional processing and manufacturing industry, high energy consumption, heavy pollution industry and inadequate pollution treatment. Finally, the suggestions to improve urban development efficiency for coastal cities are as follow：In order to upgrade industries, the investment of human, capital and resources should be reasonable. We can not neglect the effect of undesirable output when measuring the urban development efficiency, and we should pay more attention to environment protection and pollution treatment.

Key words: urban development efficiency, undesirable outputs, spatial and temporal patterns, coastal cities

中图分类号:

F129.9

狄乾斌, 孟雪. 基于非期望产出的城市发展效率时空差异探讨——以中国东部沿海地区城市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 807-816.

Qianbin Di, Xue Meng. Spatial and Temporal Disparities of Urban Development Efficiency of Coastal Cities in China Based on Undesirable Outputs[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 807-816.

图/表 6

表1

图1

表2

考虑与不考虑非期望产出的城市发展效率值"

地区	2005年考虑/不考虑	2008年考虑/不考虑	2010年考虑/不考虑	2014年考虑/不考虑	均值考虑/不考虑
北海市	0.441/0.563	0.542/0.689	0.524/0.610	1.000/1.000	0.588/0.688
滨州市	0.343/0.481	0.496/0.659	0.484/0.625	0.439/0.597	0.469/0.615
沧州市	0.468/0.603	0.799/0.850	0.757/0.810	0.532/0.643	0.736/0.790
潮州市	0.367/0.477	0.551/0.675	0.588/0.715	0.512/0.595	0.544/0.643
大连市	0.464/0.598	0.611/0.740	0.578/0.704	0.520/0.629	0.605/0.708
丹东市	0.409/0.549	0.555/0.724	0.514/0.633	0.453/0.571	0.526/0.652
东莞市	0.439/0.630	0.596/0.837	0.592/0.834	0.482/0.676	0.560/0.784
东营市	0.489/0.659	0.673/0.809	0.606/0.680	0.475/0.572	0.610/0.720
防城港市	0.431/0.557	0.646/0.809	0.521/0.623	0.475/0.586	0.562/0.675
福州市	0.442/0.588	0.696/0.790	0.547/0.649	0.498/0.605	0.616/0.716
广州市	0.633/0.759	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.963/0.976
海口市	0.515/0.634	0.647/0.748	0.481/0.549	0.478/0.557	0.580/0.647
杭州市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.875/0.892	0.613/0.690	0.861/0.898
葫芦岛市	0.365/0.507	0.526/0.710	0.494/0.642	0.438/0.577	0.492/0.643
惠州市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.596/0.546	0.960/0.914
嘉兴市	0.344/0.453	0.467/0.567	0.424/0.514	0.323/0.413	0.421/0.520
江门市	0.377/0.514	0.505/0.678	0.484/0.622	0.441/0.572	0.479/0.620
揭阳市	1.000/1.000	0.606/0.744	0.605/0.714	0.532/0.623	0.665/0.748
锦州市	0.372/0.514	0.507/0.683	0.491/0.596	0.456/0.576	0.494/0.629
连云港市	0.362/0.483	0.579/0.691	1.000/1.000	0.608/0.714	0.681/0.750
茂名市	0.384/0.523	0.540/0.709	0.497/0.608	0.457/0.584	0.505/0.636
南通市	0.488/0.649	1.000/1.000	0.641/0.764	0.594/0.706	0.719/0.803
宁波市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.578/0.710	0.888/0.928
宁德市	0.481/0.598	0.702/0.821	0.569/0.698	0.496/0.593	0.618/0.718
盘锦市	0.368/0.487	0.549/0.683	0.536/0.619	0.448/0.582	0.503/0.612
莆田市	0.329/0.437	0.489/0.607	0.442/0.547	0.395/0.465	0.448/0.545
钦州市	0.374/0.494	0.577/0.748	0.530/0.615	0.497/0.603	0.523/0.638
秦皇岛市	0.467/0.620	0.673/0.848	0.508/0.640	0.525/0.661	0.591/0.732
青岛市	0.522/0.691	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.952/0.969
泉州市	0.551/0.701	0.802/0.892	1.000/1.000	0.657/0.828	0.854/0.912
日照市	0.392/0.526	0.615/0.752	0.613/0.735	0.505/0.617	0.589/0.712
三亚市	0.500/0.634	0.788/0.868	0.537/0.586	0.482/0.552	0.631/0.696
汕头市	0.415/0.537	0.538/0.657	0.471/0.566	0.441/0.530	0.503/0.609
汕尾市	0.623/0.703	1.000/0.913	0.593/0.680	0.511/0.538	0.742/0.756
上海市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000
绍兴市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.743/0.806	0.433/0.543	0.792/0.844
深圳市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000
台州市	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.579/0.710	0.495/0.578	0.769/0.828
唐山市	0.415/0.584	0.607/0.812	0.612/0.796	0.461/0.626	0.557/0.743
天津市	0.426/0.561	0.455/0.597	0.602/0.713	0.477/0.597	0.558/0.679
威海市	0.406/0.529	0.587/0.680	0.644/0.701	0.494/0.576	0.586/0.656
潍坊市	0.451/0.629	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.647/0.825	0.850/0.909
温州市	0.641/0.813	1.000/1.000	0.597/0.677	0.579/0.652	0.754/0.815
厦门市	0.464/0.603	0.608/0.727	0.538/0.613	0.493/0.553	0.553/0.638
烟台市	0.528/0.727	1.000/1.000	1.000/1.000	0.612/0.734	0.914/0.946
盐城市	0.374/0.490	0.602/0.687	0.678/0.728	0.515/0.619	0.606/0.668
阳江市	0.472/0.563	0.576/0.665	0.628/0.709	0.557/0.623	0.587/0.650
营口市	0.376/0.516	0.536/0.715	0.527/0.669	0.461/0.590	0.515/0.654
湛江市	0.371/0.488	0.490/0.610	0.497/0.548	0.490/0.558	0.478/0.566
漳州市	0.423/0.540	0.640/0.737	0.610/0.715	0.466/0.569	0.584/0.676
中山市	0.372/0.501	0.514/0.670	0.510/0.620	0.443/0.560	0.487/0.613
舟山市	0.674/0.822	1.000/1.000	0.492/0.590	0.636/0.692	0.758/0.809
珠海市	0.476/0.609	0.536/0.665	0.425/0.491	0.446/0.512	0.489/0.583
均值	0.529/0.644	0.706/0.801	0.645/0.727	0.550/0.644	0.648/0.734

表2

图2

图3

表3

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指标类型	一级指标	二级指标
投入指标	资本要素投入	固定资本存量（万元）
	土地要素投入	城市建设用地面积（km²）
	水资源要素投入	供水总量（10⁴t）
	能源要素投入	全社会用电量（10⁴kW·h）、供气总量（t）
	劳动力要素投入	单位从业人员（万人）
	科技信息化要素投入	固定电话用户（万家）、移动电话用户（万户）、互联网用户（万户）、政府科技支出（万元）
产出指标	期望产出	经济效益产出[GDP（亿元）]
		社会效益产出[城市职工平均工资(元)、社会消费品零售总额（万元）]
		生态效益产出[城市绿地面积（km²）]
	非期望产出	城市废水（10⁴m³）、工业粉尘（10⁴t）、二氧化硫（10⁴t）、工业固体废弃物（10⁴t）、城市垃圾清运量（10⁴t）

变量	系数	标准误差	P>\|t\|
常数项	2.044^***	0.270	0.000
地区经济发展水平（Y₁）	0.139^***	0.018	0.000
第二产业结构水平（Y₂）	-0.156^***	0.054	0.004
科技水平（Y₃）	0.002	0.014	0.120
对外开放水平（Y₄）	0.011	0.010	0.297
污染处理能力（Y₅）	-0.188^***	0.057	0.001