基于Bootstrap-DEA模型环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间演化与影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

借助Bootstrap-DEA模型综合测算了环渤海地区17个城市海洋经济效率,并结合标准差椭圆和重心坐标方法,定量刻画了2000~2012年环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间格局演化特征,考察了影响空间格局演化的重要因素及其影响机制。结果表明：① 基于Bootstrap-DEA模型纠偏后的海洋经济效率更低,但准确性更高;计算得到的环渤海地区海洋经济效率总体上且呈现先上升后下降的趋势,低海洋经济效率的城市主要分布于渤海西南沿岸。② 从标准差椭圆分布来看,海洋经济效率总体呈现南（偏西）-北（偏东）的空间格局;从重心的移动轨迹来看,效率重心先向渤海西南部海洋经济区移动,再转向辽东半岛海洋经济区与渤海西部海洋经济区移动,最后转向山东半岛蓝色经济区移动。③ 针对海洋经济效率空间格局演化驱动机制的分析表明,区位优势对海洋经济效率产生正向影响,海洋产业结构和外商直接投资对海洋经济效率产生负向影响,资源消耗型海洋产业比重过大是导致海洋经济效率下降的主要原因。

关键词: Bootstrap-DEA, 海洋经济效率, 空间演化, 环渤海地区

Abstract:

By using Bootstrap-DEA model, this article first comprehensively measures and calculates the marine economic efficiency of 17 coastal cities in Bohai Sea Ring Area. Then Standard Deviation Ellipses and Barycentric Coordinates Method are applied to projecting and visualizing the evolution of spatial pattern of marine economic efficiency in Bohai Sea Ring Area from 2000 to 2012. Finally, we analyze the important factors which affect the evolution of spatial pattern and its mechanisms. Results are shown as follows: 1) Compared with the traditional DEA model, marine economic efficiency modified by Bootstrap-DEA model is lower but higher accuracy. Overall, marine economic efficiency in all the cities show a trend which first upwards and then downwards, and the cities with low marine economic efficiency are mainly located in northwestern BSRA. 2) Viewed from rotation angle of the Standard Deviational Ellipses, marine economic efficiency generally present a North (by east)-South (by west) spatial distribution pattern. Viewed from the track of the center of gravity, the center of gravity of marine economic efficiency first moves to Bohai Sea Southwest Marine Economic Zone, and then turns to Liaodong Peninsula Marine Economic Zone and Bohai Sea Western Marine Economic Zone, finally moves to Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone. 3) By analyzing the evolution driving mechanism of spatial pattern of marine economic efficiency, we can find out that location advantages have positive impacts on the marine economic efficiency, while the marine industrial structure and FDI have a negative effect on marine economic efficiency. A large proportion of resource consuming marine industry is the main reason to reduce marine economic efficiency.

Key words: Bootstrap-DEA, spatial evolution, marine economic efficiency, Bohai Sea Ring Area

中图分类号:

F129.9

邹玮, 孙才志, 覃雄合. 基于Bootstrap-DEA模型环渤海地区海洋经济效率空间演化与影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 859-867.

Wei Zou, Caizhi Sun, Xionghe Qin. Spatial Evolution of Marine Economic Efficiency and Its Influential Factors in Bohai Sea Ring Area Based on Bootstrap-DEA Model[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 859-867.

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城市	传统DEA平均效率值	纠偏的平均效率值	平均偏误	置信区间下界	置信区间上界
天津	0.7769	0.6375	0.1394	0.4623	0.7599
唐山	0.4580	0.4102	0.0478	0.3580	0.4481
秦皇岛	0.8421	0.6651	0.1771	0.3933	0.8248
沧州	0.3959	0.3662	0.0297	0.3381	0.3873
大连	0.6830	0.6310	0.0520	0.5601	0.6704
丹东	0.6146	0.5472	0.0674	0.4058	0.6029
锦州	0.5959	0.4982	0.0977	0.3966	0.5837
营口	0.4175	0.3457	0.0718	0.2681	0.4084
盘锦	0.8551	0.6829	0.1722	0.4669	0.8361
葫芦岛	0.7327	0.6381	0.0946	0.5369	0.7186
青岛	0.6320	0.5722	0.0598	0.4980	0.6191
东营	0.6157	0.5625	0.0532	0.4961	0.6025
烟台	0.5759	0.5308	0.0451	0.4742	0.5645
潍坊	0.4816	0.4447	0.0369	0.3928	0.4725
威海	0.8657	0.7328	0.1329	0.5776	0.8475
日照	0.7241	0.6302	0.0939	0.5222	0.7096
滨州	0.3483	0.3225	0.0257	0.2934	0.3413

城市	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	平均值
天津	0.218	0.350	0.488	0.577	0.720	0.781	0.687	0.708	0.742	0.712	0.801	0.765	0.738	0.638
唐山	0.230	0.272	0.276	0.291	0.271	0.342	0.813	0.689	0.566	0.442	0.394	0.390	0.357	0.410
秦皇岛	0.729	0.704	0.629	0.659	0.548	0.480	0.765	0.731	0.767	0.712	0.672	0.636	0.613	0.665
沧州	0.082	0.122	0.156	0.194	0.237	0.229	0.663	0.679	0.674	0.499	0.427	0.419	0.380	0.366
大连	0.429	0.465	0.546	0.610	0.757	0.727	0.632	0.610	0.635	0.651	0.647	0.741	0.755	0.631
丹东	0.872	0.867	0.748	0.660	0.772	0.694	0.629	0.499	0.404	0.324	0.252	0.209	0.186	0.547
锦州	0.572	0.555	0.501	0.404	0.584	0.574	0.556	0.509	0.566	0.506	0.384	0.387	0.381	0.498
营口	0.590	0.323	0.397	0.355	0.414	0.408	0.367	0.327	0.297	0.296	0.245	0.241	0.234	0.346
盘锦	0.559	0.485	0.488	0.518	0.680	0.748	0.779	0.858	0.836	0.795	0.768	0.745	0.621	0.683
葫芦岛	0.572	0.298	0.471	0.372	0.639	0.692	0.886	0.757	0.840	0.783	0.680	0.648	0.657	0.638
青岛	0.324	0.323	0.340	0.498	0.679	0.628	0.633	0.672	0.669	0.670	0.681	0.668	0.653	0.572
东营	0.285	0.356	0.316	0.318	0.366	0.531	0.710	0.731	0.711	0.712	0.762	0.690	0.825	0.562
烟台	0.433	0.433	0.423	0.431	0.507	0.515	0.610	0.591	0.601	0.593	0.571	0.589	0.602	0.531
潍坊	0.267	0.355	0.473	0.637	0.453	0.383	0.460	0.527	0.489	0.365	0.478	0.450	0.445	0.445
威海	0.633	0.610	0.634	0.617	0.670	0.636	0.777	0.811	0.838	0.814	0.853	0.826	0.810	0.733
日照	0.737	0.664	0.787	0.823	0.756	0.654	0.627	0.537	0.492	0.431	0.523	0.541	0.618	0.630
滨州	0.353	0.384	0.442	0.416	0.351	0.294	0.310	0.292	0.286	0.268	0.258	0.265	0.273	0.323
环渤海均值	0.464	0.445	0.477	0.493	0.553	0.548	0.641	0.619	0.612	0.563	0.553	0.542	0.538	0.542