关键词: 公共安全规划, 土地利用, 街头抢劫, 地理加权泊松回归

Abstract:

According to environmental criminology, built environment, especially land use may have some effects on the occurrence of criminal behaviour. The research on the relationship between crime and the land use can provide a new perspective on crime prevention from the angle of urban public security planning. However, most of the researches to date used the global model, and less to consider the factor of spatial differences, which can be improved by the Geographical Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). This article studies the effect of land use on the distribution of robbery cases happened in the urban area of H city by GWPR model. The results show that the correlation between residential land use and street robbery cases appears to be negative in traditional dwelling districts, resulting from the strong social bond between each resident; how the commercial and business land use affect the cases distribution depends on their spatial form, the individual high-rise commercial complex building attracts less street robberies because of better access control, while the street-side mode of commercial land use attracts more cases due to the convenient escaping routes for the criminal; the positive correlation between industrial land and cases only appears in the old city since the manufacturing industries have enhanced the complexity of social structure; tourism scenic spot with thorough security administration has negative effect on street robberies. But others lacking of residents and supervise tend to suffer from crimes; besides, relationship between the street robbery and transportation land use is affected by the transport-facilities, road-grades and road-network pattern. Generally, cases will gather in the regions near the faster road and those with high accessibility. And the traffic station areas have more potential criminal due to the heavy visitor flow. In addition, because of the diversified land use distribution all around the city, the primary land use factors to street robbery differ from each other in different regions. Therefore, on the basis of regression coefficients, the urban area of H city is divided into 6 parts by cluster, which are corresponding to several urban function areas, including the old city comprehensive functional areas, new city living areas, traffic station, wholesale market, urban-rural fringe areas and traditional residential district, contributing to summarizing street robbery spatial pattern. Consequently, according to the relationship between land use and street robbery discovered previous, correlative land use planning guidelines in every district are made to prevent the occurrence of criminal behaviour consciously, which may help to urban planning and police prevention.

Key words: urban public security planning, land use, street robbery, GWPR