黑河中游地区耕地景观演变及社会经济驱动力分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取1987~2010年的土地利用数据,运用变化轨迹分析方法以及景观指数表征黑河中游地区耕地景观的演变过程,采用偏最小二乘回归模型分析耕地景观演变的驱动力。结果表明：从耕地的变化轨迹来看,研究期间耕地的扩张是黑河中游地区耕地景观演变的主要趋势;从空间上来看,扩张型耕地和缩减型耕地分布趋向集中,主要集中在稳定型耕地边缘,同时耕地扩张的方向趋向河流;从驱动因素分析来看,总人口、城市化、产业发展、机电井数等是促使耕地景观演变的主要社会经济驱动因素,但是各个驱动因素的驱动作用均有差异。

关键词: 耕地景观, 变化轨迹分析, 偏最小二乘回归, 黑河中游

Abstract:

It is a complex procedure to identify, record and monitor land cover change on the earth’s surface. Most of the existing Spatio-temporal methods are based on multi-temporal land cover maps or temporal trend analysis of spatial pattern indices. Change trajectory analysis explores the dynamic of landscape pattern in the temporal scale, will not separate the landscape change process, and is an effective method of spatio-temporal modelling. The rapid expansion, abandonment and mis-management of farmland would result in soil salinization and desertification in the inland river basin in the arid region, northwest China. In the countrywide context of continuous decrease of farmland, the evident increase intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand of water resources in the arid region. In order to better understand the Spatio-temporal pattern of farmland change in the middle reaches of Heihe River, this paper used change trajectory analysis and landscape metrics to explore the evolution process of farmland landscape and analyzed its socio-economic driving forces by partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. Spatial patterns of farmland change were quantified by employing distribution-related landscape metrics, such as indices of interspersion(IJI), connectivity (COHESION) and area-weighted patch fractal dimension index isolation (FRAC-AM), percentage of landscape (PLAND), Euclidean Nearest Neighbor Index (ENN-AM) to analyze characteristics of farmland change based on the remote-sensing images of 1987, 1992, 2001 and 2010. Results showed that the expansion of farmland was one of the main trends of land use change in the middle reaches of the Heihe River. The area of farmland expansion was significantly larger than that of abandonment. The proportion of farmland occupied in study area increased from 15.67% in 1987 to 19.74% in 2010, with a net increase of 43 758.9 hm² for arable land and converted mainly from wetland and unused land. The expanded and reduced farmland exhibited a concentrated pattern, tending to distribute at the edge of the stable farmland, and farmland expanded towards the river. The total population, urbanization rate, industry development and number of electromechanical well were the primary social and economic driving factors prompting the farmland landscape evolution, but the effects of driving factors differed for different types of farmland. The interaction among driving factors influenced the dynamic of farmland landscape. The water resources exploitation directly influenced the change of social-economic factors such as total population, urbanization rate, industry development. The study showed that the proposed research method effectively visualized and quanti?ed the spatio-temporal dynamics of farmland change and its driving forces.

Key words: farmland landscape, change trajectory analysis, partial least squares regression, the middle reaches of the Heihe River

中图分类号:

K902

赵锐锋, 王福红, 张丽华, 李鸿伟. 黑河中游地区耕地景观演变及社会经济驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 920-928.

Ruifeng Zhao, Fuhong Wang, Lihua Zhang, Hongwei Li. Dynamic of Farmland Landscape and Its Socioeconomic Driving Forces in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 920-928.

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轨迹类型	特征
恒定耕地	研究时间段土地利用属性一直保持为耕地
恒定非耕地	研究时间段土地利用属性一直保持为非耕地
1992年来扩张	1992年土地利用属性转变为耕地并保持到研究期末
1992年来缩减	1992年土地利用属性转变为非耕地并保持到研究期末
2001年来扩张	2001年土地利用属性转变为耕地并保持到研究期末
2001年来缩减	2001年土地利用属性转变为非耕地并保持到研究期末
临时耕地	研究期末土地属性为耕地,前一期时间点土地利用属性为非耕地
临时弃耕	研究期末土地属性为非耕地,前一期时间点土地利用属性为耕地

轨迹类型	PLAND （%）	IJI	FRAC_AM
恒定耕地	13.6589	90.8164	1.254
恒定非耕地	78.6234	84.1909	1.2075
临时耕地	3.1243	70.1581	1.1428
临时弃耕	0.6982	76.3122	1.107
1992年来扩张	1.2362	79.1273	1.1187
1992年来缩减	0.3064	81.2007	1.1041
2001年来扩张	1.7221	79.573	1.1129
2001年来缩减	0.6304	68.9865	1.0924

年代	稳定型耕地	扩张型耕地	缩减型耕地	稳定型非耕地
1987~1992	152512.54	22728.83	16039.88	884058.03
1992~2001	164816.93	21455.02	10424.53	878643.04
2001~2010	178764.91	33546.57	7507.07	855521.59

	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂
模型效应和因变量权数	0.3314	0.2726	0.37	0.4531	0.0897	0.0266	0.2276	-0.2728	0.4064	0.0837	0.0173	0.4077
模型效应负荷量	0.4002	0.3711	0.4151	0.4203	0.2516	0.2029	0.3451	-0.0755	0.2411	0.2471	0.1954	0.4245

	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂
Y₁	0.1915	0.2645	0.1775	0.1708	0.0504	-0.0242	-0.0424	-0.3119	0.2561	0.0357	-0.0327	0.2632
Y₂	0.3293	0.1946	-0.1301	0.3887	-0.0845	-0.0259	-0.0900	-0.4014	0.2070	0.1383	-0.0457	0.2218
Y₃	-0.1478	-1.3212	0.8538	0.2197	-0.2799	-0.3047	-0.1139	-0.1716	0.1809	-0.1527	0.1368	-0.3875
Y₄	-0.2992	-1.0658	0.4468	0.0169	-0.5627	0.0019	0.7871	0.3166	0.0491	-0.1724	0.0805	0.0282