地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 920-928.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.014
收稿日期:
2016-07-20
修回日期:
2016-11-15
出版日期:
2017-06-20
发布日期:
2017-06-20
作者简介:
作者简介:赵锐锋(1976-),男,甘肃漳县人,博士,副教授,主要从事土地利用与景观生态方面的研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Ruifeng Zhao1(), Fuhong Wang1, Lihua Zhang2, Hongwei Li1
Received:
2016-07-20
Revised:
2016-11-15
Online:
2017-06-20
Published:
2017-06-20
Supported by:
摘要:
选取1987~2010年的土地利用数据,运用变化轨迹分析方法以及景观指数表征黑河中游地区耕地景观的演变过程,采用偏最小二乘回归模型分析耕地景观演变的驱动力。结果表明:从耕地的变化轨迹来看,研究期间耕地的扩张是黑河中游地区耕地景观演变的主要趋势;从空间上来看,扩张型耕地和缩减型耕地分布趋向集中,主要集中在稳定型耕地边缘,同时耕地扩张的方向趋向河流;从驱动因素分析来看,总人口、城市化、产业发展、机电井数等是促使耕地景观演变的主要社会经济驱动因素,但是各个驱动因素的驱动作用均有差异。
中图分类号:
赵锐锋, 王福红, 张丽华, 李鸿伟. 黑河中游地区耕地景观演变及社会经济驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 920-928.
Ruifeng Zhao, Fuhong Wang, Lihua Zhang, Hongwei Li. Dynamic of Farmland Landscape and Its Socioeconomic Driving Forces in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 920-928.
表5
自变量和因变量标准回归系数"
X1 | X2 | X3 | X4 | X5 | X6 | X7 | X8 | X9 | X10 | X11 | X12 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y1 | 0.1915 | 0.2645 | 0.1775 | 0.1708 | 0.0504 | -0.0242 | -0.0424 | -0.3119 | 0.2561 | 0.0357 | -0.0327 | 0.2632 |
Y2 | 0.3293 | 0.1946 | -0.1301 | 0.3887 | -0.0845 | -0.0259 | -0.0900 | -0.4014 | 0.2070 | 0.1383 | -0.0457 | 0.2218 |
Y3 | -0.1478 | -1.3212 | 0.8538 | 0.2197 | -0.2799 | -0.3047 | -0.1139 | -0.1716 | 0.1809 | -0.1527 | 0.1368 | -0.3875 |
Y4 | -0.2992 | -1.0658 | 0.4468 | 0.0169 | -0.5627 | 0.0019 | 0.7871 | 0.3166 | 0.0491 | -0.1724 | 0.0805 | 0.0282 |
[1] |
Johnson B G, Zuleta G A.Land-use land-cover change and ecosystem loss in the Espinal ecoregion, Argentina[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2013, 181(4):31-40.
doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2013.09.002 |
[2] |
Sun L, Wei J, Duan D H et al. Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on urban air quality in representative cities of China[J]. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2016, 142:43-54.
doi: 10.1016/j.jastp.2016.02.022 |
[3] |
王国刚, 刘彦随, 陈秧分. 中国省域耕地集约利用态势与驱动力分析[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(7):907-915.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407003 |
[Wang Guogang, Liu Yansui, Chen Yangfen.Dynamic trends and driving forces of land-use intensification in the cultivated land of China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(7):907-915.]
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201407003 |
|
[4] | 国土资源部. 2015中国国土资源公报[R/OL]. 2016-04-22. |
[Ministry of Land and Resources. Land and resources bulletin of china in 2015. .] | |
[5] | 关兴良, 方创琳, 鲁莎莎. 中国耕地变化的空间格局与重心曲线动态分析[J]. 自然资源学报, 2010, 25(12):1997-2007. |
[Guan Xingliang, Fang Chuanglin, Lu Shasha.Analysis of Spatial Distribution and Gravity Centers Curve Dynamic Cultivated Land Changes in China. Journal of Natural Resources,2010, 25(12):1997-2007.] | |
[6] |
Zheng H W, Shen G Q, Wang H et al. Simulating land use change in urban renewal areas: A case study in Hong Kong[J]. Habitat International, 2015, 46:23-34.
doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2014.10.008 |
[7] | 陈永林,谢炳庚,李晓青.长沙市土地利用格局变化的空间粒度效应[J].地理科学,2016,36(4):564-570. |
[Chen Yonglin, Xie Binggeng, Li Xiaoqing.Spatial Grain Size Effect on Land Use Pattern Changes in Changsha City. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(4):564-570.] | |
[8] | 刘玉,郝星耀,潘瑜春,等. 河南省耕地集约利用时空分异及分区研究[J].地理科学,2014, 34(10):1218-1225. |
[Liu Yu, Hao Xingyao, Pan Yuchun et al. Evaluating and Zoning of Cultivated Land Intensive Use in Henan Province at County Level. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(10): 1218-1225.] | |
[9] |
Ye Jingzhong.Land Transfer and the Pursuit of Agricultural Modernization in China[J]. Journal of Agrarian Change, 2015, 15(3):314-337.
doi: 10.1111/joac.12117 |
[10] |
关小克,张凤荣,李乐,等. 北京市耕地后备资源开发适宜性评价[J]. 农业工程学报,2010,26(12):304-310.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2010.12.052 |
[Guan Xiaoke, Zhang Fengrong, Li Le et al. Suitability evaluation of reserve resources of cultivated land development in Beijing. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2010, 26(12): 304-310.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2010.12.052 |
|
[11] | 吴美琼, 陈秀贵. 基于主成分分析法的钦州市耕地面积变化及其驱动力分析[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(1): 54-59. |
[Wu Meiqiong, Chen Xiugui.Changes in Arable Land Area in Qinzhou City and Its Driving Force Based on the Principle Component Analysis. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(1):54-59.] | |
[12] | 程国栋. 黑河流域水-生态-经济系统综合管理研究[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2009. |
[Cheng Guodong.Integrated study of the water-ecosystem-economy in the Heihe River Basin.Beijing:Science Press, 2009] | |
[13] |
Zhao R F, Xie Z L, Zhang L H et al. Accessment of wetland fragmentation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River by the type change tracker model[J]. Journal of Arid Land,2015, 7(2): 177-188.
doi: 10.1007/s40333-014-0047-z |
[14] |
赵锐锋, 姜朋辉, 赵海莉, 等. 土地利用/覆被变化对张掖黑河湿地国家级自然保护区景观破碎化的影响[J]. 自然资源学报, 2013,(4):583-595.
doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.04.005 |
[Zhao Ruifeng, Jiang Penghui, Zhao Haili et al. Effect of Land Use/Cover Change on Landscape Fragmentation of Zhangye Heihe National Wetland Nature Reserve. Journal of Natural Resources, 2013,(4):583-595.]
doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2013.04.005 |
|
[15] | 甘肃农村年鉴编委会. 甘肃农村年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1990-2010. |
[Editorial Committee of Gansu Rural Yearbook. Gansu Rural Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1990-2010.] | |
[16] |
黄勇, 王凤友, 蔡体久, 等. 环渤海地区景观格局动态变化轨迹分析[J]. 水土保持学报, 2015, 29(2):314-320.
doi: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2015.02.059 |
[Huang Yong, Wang Fengyou, Cai Tijiu et al. Landscape Pattern Dynamic Analysis Based on Change Trajectory Method in Bohai Rim Area. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2015, 29(2):314-320.]
doi: 10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2015.02.059 |
|
[17] | 刘桂林, 艾里西尔·库尔班,玉米提·哈力克,等. 基于变化轨迹探测的植被景观格局动态分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2012, 32(5):1-7. |
[Liu Guilin, Alishir Knrhan, Umnt Halik et al. Analysis of Vegetation Landscape Pattern Dynamics Based on Trajectory Change Detection. Journal of Desert Research, 2012, 32(5):1-7.] | |
[18] |
Sun B, Zhou Q.Expressing the spatio-temporal pattern of farmland change in arid lands using landscape metrics[J]. Journal of Arid Environments, 2016, 124:118-127.
doi: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2015.08.007 |
[19] | 王惠文, 吴载斌, 孟洁. 偏最小二乘回归的线性与非线性方法[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社, 2006. |
[Wang Huiwen, Wu Zaibin, Meng Jie.Prtial Last Suares Rgression-Linear and Nnlinear Mthods. Beijing:National Defence Industry Press, 2006.] | |
[20] |
Zhang Y, Li C H, Wang T W et al. County-level patterns of cropland and their relationships with socio-economic factors in northwestern China[J]. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2014, 203(1):11-18.
doi: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.11.016 |
[21] |
李传哲, 于福亮, 刘佳. 分水后黑河干流中游地区景观动态变化及驱动力[J]. 生态学报, 2009, 29(11):5832-5842.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2009.11.011 |
[Li Chuanzhe, Yu Fuliang, Liu Jia.Dynamic change of land scape and its driving forces in mid stream of Heihe main stream basin after water redistribution. Acta Ecologica Sinica. 2009, 29(11):5832-5842.]
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2009.11.011 |
|
[22] | 卫玲, 戴江伟. 丝绸之路经济带中国段集聚现象透视——基于城市位序-规模分布的研究[J]. 兰州大学学报:社会科学版, 2015, 43(2):1-7. |
[Wei Ling, Dai Jiangwei.Agglomeration Effect of the Silk Road Economic Belt in China—Based on the Research of Urban Order-Size Distributions. Journal of Lanzhou University (Social sciences), 2015, 43(2):1-8.] | |
[23] | 马晴, 李丁, 廖杰, 等. 疏勒河中下游绿洲土地利用变化及其驱动力分析[J].经济地理, 2014, 34(1):148-156. |
[Ma Qing, Li Ding, Liao Jie et al. Analysis of Land Use Change and Its Driving Forces in the Oasis of Shule River Middle and Lower Reaches. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(1):148-156.] | |
[24] | 汪桂生. 黑河流域历史时期垦殖绿洲时空变化与驱动机制研究[D]. 兰州:兰州大学. 2014. |
[Wang Guisheng.Spatial-temporal Change and Driving Mechanism of the Cultivated Oasis in the Heihe River Basin during Historical Periods. Lanzhou:Lanzhou University.2014.] | |
[25] |
朱会义, 李义. 西北干旱区耕地扩张原因的实证分析[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(5):615-620.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.05.014 |
[Zhu Huiyi, Li Yi.An Empirical Analysis of the Causes of Farmland Expansion in Northwest China. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(5):615-620.]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2011.05.014 |
|
[26] |
张乐勤, 陈发奎. 基于Logistic模型的中国城镇化演进对耕地影响前景预测及分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2014, 30(4):1-12.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.04.001 |
[Zhang Leqin, Chen Fakui.Analysis and forecast on prospect about influence of urbanization gradual progress on cultivated land in China based on Logistic mode. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2014, 30(4):1-12.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2014.04.001 |
|
[27] | 邬建国. 景观生态学——格局、过程、尺度与等级[M]. 北京:高等教育出版社, 2007. |
[Wu Jianguo. Landscape Ecology Pattern, Process, Scand, Hierarchy. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 2007.] | |
[28] | 李均力, 姜亮亮, 包安明, 等. 1962~2010年玛纳斯流域耕地景观的时空变化分析[J]. 农业工程学报, 2015, 31(4):277-285. |
[Li Junli, Jiang Liangliang, Bao Anming et al. Spatio-temporal change analysis of cultivated land in Manas drainage basin during 1962-2010. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2015, 31(4):277-285.] | |
[29] | 谢余初,张影,钱大文,等.基于参与式调查与主成分分析的金塔绿洲变化驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2016,36(2):312-320. |
[Xie Yuchu, Zhang Ying, Qian Dawen et al. Driving Forces of Jinta Oasis Changes Based on Participatory Rural Appraisal and Principal Component Analysis. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(2):312-320.] | |
[30] | 甘肃省人民政府. 甘肃省生态保护与建设规划(2014~2020年)[S]. 2015-4-14.. |
[People’s Government of Gansu Province.Ecological protection and construction planning in Gansu Province(2014-2020). 2015-4-14..] |
[1] | 蒙吉军, 江颂, 拉巴卓玛, 张维佳. 基于景观格局的黑河中游土地利用冲突时空分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(9): 1553-1562. |
[2] | 刘云达, 佟连军. 德国三大汽车制造商产业竞争力表现动态分析[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(7): 1061-1068. |
[3] | 常婧, 惠争闯, 耿豪鹏, 胡小飞, 潘保田. 黑河中游现代孢粉传播过程研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(12): 1925-1932. |
[4] | 张建, 胡小飞, 耿豪鹏, 陈殿宝, 潘保田. 钻孔及现代河流重矿物特征揭示的更新世以来酒东盆地水系演化历史[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(10): 1595-1604. |
[5] | 董炜华, 王子婷, 李锋瑞, 刘继亮. 黑河中游绿洲化过程中不同开垦年限农田大型土壤动物群落特征[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(10): 1254-1261. |
[6] | 张俊华, 李国栋, 南忠仁, 肖洪浪, 赵自胜. 黑河中游不同土地利用类型下土壤碳储量及其空间变化[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(8): 982-988. |
[7] | 张凯, 韩永翔, 张勃, 郝建秀. 黑河中游水资源开发利用的阶段潜力研究[J]. 地理科学, 2006, 26(2): 179-185. |
|