地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (6): 929-937.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.015
顾西辉1(), 张强2,3,4(
), 孔冬冬5, 刘剑宇5, 范科科2,3,4
收稿日期:
2016-08-15
修回日期:
2017-01-20
出版日期:
2017-06-20
发布日期:
2017-06-20
作者简介:
作者简介:顾西辉(1990-),男,博士研究生,主要从事气象水文学研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xihui Gu1(), Qiang Zhang2,3,4(
), Dongdong Kong5, Jianyu Liu5, Keke Fan2,3,4
Received:
2016-08-15
Revised:
2017-01-20
Online:
2017-06-20
Published:
2017-06-20
Supported by:
摘要:
基于热带气旋时间、路径、强度数据和中国728个气象站点1951~2014年日降水数据,分析了年和季节极端降水广义极值(GEV)分布函数特征及受热带气旋的影响。通过检查年和各季节极端降水的非一致性,发现具有变异点或显著时间趋势的站点占总站点数的比例较低。仅考虑满足一致性的站点,年和各季节极端降水GEV分布上尾部在全国大部分区域表现出厚尾特征,且不具有上边界。总体来看北方厚尾特征重于南方,秋季和冬季明显高于年和夏季。年极端降水厚尾特征受到不同季节极端降水机制的混合影响。而且,热带气旋对中国沿海区域极端降水有重要影响,往往引发大量级极端降水。东南沿海地区最大10场极端降水由热带气旋引发的比例达到60%以上。因此热带气旋趋向于增加沿海区域年极端降水GEV分布形状参数的大小,并控制着曲线上尾部的形状。
中图分类号:
顾西辉, 张强, 孔冬冬, 刘剑宇, 范科科. 中国年和季节极端降水时空特征 及极值分布函数上尾部性质[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 929-937.
Xihui Gu, Qiang Zhang, Dongdong Kong, Jianyu Liu, Keke Fan. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Extreme Precipitation Distributions with Annual and Seasonal Scales and Potential Impact of Tropical Cyclones in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 929-937.
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