国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.06.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于国内外农户气候变化感知和适应研究进展,在辨析气候变化和气候变异概念的基础上,阐释农户气候变化/变异感知结果及影响因素。研究发现农户气候变化感知与适应行为之间存在不确定关系,农户气候变化感知直接转化为适应策略需克服一系列障碍因素。针对农户气候变化适应策略,在系统梳理国内外农户适应策略的基础上,对这些策略是否属于气候变化和变异适应行为提出质疑,认为不能忽略其他复杂的社会经济和政治因素对这些措施的驱动作用。最后,对中国未来研究提出慎重大规模开展农户气候变化感知及适应研究、厘清气候变化/变异感知与适应策略之间关系和重视时空异质性以及农户异质性研究三点展望。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候变异, 农户, 感知, 适应策略

Abstract:

Climate change and variability are predicted to have dramatic impacts on weather patterns, food production, ecosystem health, species distributions, and human health. Although climate change is a global phenomenon, its impacts on developing countries will be strongest on vulnerable sectors such as agriculture and fisheries which substantially constitute rural livelihoods. Owing to higher costs and difficulty in mitigating climate change by decreasing carbon emission and promoting carbon capture and sequestration, adaptation to climate change becomes the research focus of international academia in the 21st century. As the most important stakeholders of climate change, farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to climate change are essential to human mitigation. However, this study raises many important and largely unresolved issues about farm-level climate change adaptation. Based on recent theoretical and empirical studies, this paper provides an overview of farmers’ perception and a series of adaptation strategies to combat climate change and variability at the farm-level. Based on clarifying the definitions of climate change and climate variability, the review summarizes the farmers’ perceptions of climate change and variability and finds that the extent to which farmers are aware of climate change is uneven. Some farmers are reported to gain the accurate perceptions of climate change, while others gain contradictory results. Many factors, including key extreme climatic events, magnitude of climate variability, social-cultural backgrounds, political-economic conditions, direct experience, climate information, public propaganda, and prejudice of media, household characteristics, and individual knowledge, would play an important role in shaping farmers’ perceptions. Moreover, we systematically summarize a range of strategies adopted by farmers to cope with climate change and variability. However, whether these strategies are primary adaptation to climate change is debatable. Besides climate change and variability, other socio-economic and political determinants of these strategies should not be neglected. Finally, several research prospects are put forward to promote China’s future related research.

Key words: climate change, climate variability, farmer, perception, adaption strategy

中图分类号:

K901

王成超, 杨玉盛, 庞雯, 洪静, 谢剑斌. 国内外农户对气候变化/变异感知与适应研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(6): 938-943.

Chengchao Wang, Yusheng Yang, Wen Pang, Jing Hong, Jianbin Xie. A Review on Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptation of Climate Change and Variability[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(6): 938-943.

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