土地资源和GDP对中国人口分布的影响机理分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.07.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选择相对生产力指数的土地资源量与地区生产总值代表影响中国人口分布的因素,采用标准回归系数法计算土地生产能力与经济对中国人口分布贡献大小。分析表明：相对生产力耕地、经济与中国人口分布高度相关。1952年,耕地对中国人口分布的贡献率为87.8%;2013年,经济对中国人口分布的贡献率则上升为58.8%。中国人口分布由长期的耕地主导型演变为非农经济主导型。改革开放之前,耕地对人口分布具有决定作用;改革开放之后,非农业经济对人口分布的作用迅速加强,现已成为决定中国人口分布的决定性因素。但是,中国人口总体格局依然没有改变。无论从经济发展还是从粮食生产的角度看,要想突破“胡焕庸线” 揭示的中国人口分布的规律,几乎不可能。

关键词: 人口分布, 土地生产力, GDP, 土地资源

Abstract:

The relative land acreage and GDP as the influence factors on Chinese population distribution, while the relative land acreage is composed of land yield and multiple crop index. It is very useful to measure the contribution of land and GDP by using Standard regression coefficient method. This research shows the relative productivity land and regional domestic product is high-closely related to the Chinese population distribution. Land accounted for 87.8% for Chinese population distribution in 1952. However, it changed while GDP accounted for 59.5% for Chinese population distribution in 2013, and economy plays a more and more important role in Chinese population distribution. For a very long time before reform and opening, Chinese population was land-oriented and now it is economy-oriented. But the overall population distribution is not changed while the role of influence factors changed. It is impossible to change Chinese population distribution line, the Hu’s line whatever by the potency of land product or by the economic product. It still need to according to the space sequence from east to west, south to north to accomplish China New-type Urbanization strategy. For now, it is easier for the east of China to increase it urbanization population. It needs a long period to accomplish the urbanization strategy for harmonious interregional development.

Key words: population distribution, land productivity, GDP, land resources

中图分类号:

C922

张锦宗, 梁进社, 朱瑜馨, 周小钟. 土地资源和GDP对中国人口分布的影响机理分析[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(7): 1006-1013.

Jinzong Zhang, Jinshe Liang, Yuxin Zhu, Xiaozhong Zhou. Land and GDP’s Function on Population Distribution in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2017, 37(7): 1006-1013.

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年份	回归系数						贡献率（%）
年份		常数	经济因子	耕地因子	R	R²	经济因子	耕地因子
1952¹	-0.001	0.138	0.897	0.931	0.866		12.5	87.5
1978¹	0.479	0.028	0.812	0.947		0.897	3.3	96.7
1985¹	0.517	0.209	0.625	0.942		0.887	21.3	78.7
2013¹	0.289	0.535	0.376	0.931		0.866	58.8	41.2
1985²	0.000	0.237	0.752	0.937		0.879	20.9	79.1
2013²	0.002	0.636	0.425	0.942		0.887	59.9	40.1

	人均GDP		GDP增速			居民收入			人均GDP		GDP增速			居民收入
				2013年				2014年		城市	乡村	2013年	2014年	城市	乡村
上海		108.82		0	-4.11		69.33	102.04		河南	-20.5		16.88	21.92		-17.93	-4.99
浙江		56.56	6.49		4.11	40.04	84.7	安徽		-26.17	35.06		26.03	-13.89	-5.46
北京		114.45	0		0	68.26	79.87	海南		-16.52	28.57		16.44	-15.11	-5.49
天津		125.68	62.34		36.99	9.23	62.21	重庆		2.62	59.74		49.32	-12.82	-9.52
江苏		75.59	24.68		19.18	19.08	42.61	四川		-24.66	29.87		16.44	-15.98	-10.88
福建		36.12	42.86		35.62	6.51	20.6	山西		-24.79	15.58		-32.88	-16.55	-16.02
广东		36.11	10.39		6.85	11.45	16.75	新疆		-12.83	42.86		36.99	-19.52	-16.83
山东		30.56	24.68		19.18	1.31	13.28	广西		-29.04	32.47		16.44	-14.47	-17.22
辽宁		39.83	12.99		-20.55	0.83	6.7	宁夏		-10.28	27.27		9.59	-19.27	-19.82
湖北		1.11	31.17		32.88	-13.84	3.43	陕西		0.64	42.86		32.88	-15.52	-24.38
吉林		7.57	7.79		-10.96	-19.5	2.77	云南		-41.53	57.14		10.96	-15.76	-28.92
黑龙江		-15.88	3.9		-23.29	-21.62	-0.34	西藏		-37.27	57.14		47.95	-23.67	-29.84
河北		-14.25	6.49		-10.96	-16.3	-2.89	青海		-14.92	40.26		26.03	-22.66	-30.57
江西		-25.64	31.17		32.88	-15.72	-3.55	贵州		-43.3	62.34		47.95	-21.83	-36.4
湖南		-13.64	31.17		30.14	-7.88	-4.09	甘肃		-43.31	40.26		21.92	-24.41	-40.16
内蒙古	52.36	16.88		6.85	-1.71	-4.89	中国	46629	7.7		7.3	28844	10489