地理科学 ›› 2017, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 1006-1013.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.07.005

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土地资源和GDP对中国人口分布的影响机理分析

张锦宗1,2(), 梁进社2, 朱瑜馨1, 周小钟1   

  1. 1.淮阴师范学院城市与环境学院,江苏 淮安223300
    2.北京师范大学地理与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-25 修回日期:2016-10-15 出版日期:2017-07-20 发布日期:2017-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张锦宗(1972-),男,甘肃张家川人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail:zhangjinzong_722@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目(41271135)、山东省社会科学规划研究项目(11CJJJ01)、江苏高校哲学社科研究项目(2015SJB683)资助

Land and GDP’s Function on Population Distribution in China

Jinzong Zhang1,2(), Jinshe Liang2, Yuxin Zhu1, Xiaozhong Zhou1   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environment, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian 223300, Jiangsu, China
    2. Institute of Geography and Remote Sensing, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
  • Received:2016-08-25 Revised:2016-10-15 Online:2017-07-20 Published:2017-07-20
  • Supported by:
    National Nature Sciences Foundation of China (41271135), Social Science Foundation of Shandong Province (11CJJJ01), Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of Jiangsu’s University (2015SJB683)

摘要:

选择相对生产力指数的土地资源量与地区生产总值代表影响中国人口分布的因素,采用标准回归系数法计算土地生产能力与经济对中国人口分布贡献大小。分析表明:相对生产力耕地、经济与中国人口分布高度相关。1952年,耕地对中国人口分布的贡献率为87.8%;2013年,经济对中国人口分布的贡献率则上升为58.8%。中国人口分布由长期的耕地主导型演变为非农经济主导型。改革开放之前,耕地对人口分布具有决定作用;改革开放之后,非农业经济对人口分布的作用迅速加强,现已成为决定中国人口分布的决定性因素。但是,中国人口总体格局依然没有改变。无论从经济发展还是从粮食生产的角度看,要想突破“胡焕庸线” 揭示的中国人口分布的规律,几乎不可能。

关键词: 人口分布, 土地生产力, GDP, 土地资源

Abstract:

The relative land acreage and GDP as the influence factors on Chinese population distribution, while the relative land acreage is composed of land yield and multiple crop index. It is very useful to measure the contribution of land and GDP by using Standard regression coefficient method. This research shows the relative productivity land and regional domestic product is high-closely related to the Chinese population distribution. Land accounted for 87.8% for Chinese population distribution in 1952. However, it changed while GDP accounted for 59.5% for Chinese population distribution in 2013, and economy plays a more and more important role in Chinese population distribution. For a very long time before reform and opening, Chinese population was land-oriented and now it is economy-oriented. But the overall population distribution is not changed while the role of influence factors changed. It is impossible to change Chinese population distribution line, the Hu’s line whatever by the potency of land product or by the economic product. It still need to according to the space sequence from east to west, south to north to accomplish China New-type Urbanization strategy. For now, it is easier for the east of China to increase it urbanization population. It needs a long period to accomplish the urbanization strategy for harmonious interregional development.

Key words: population distribution, land productivity, GDP, land resources

中图分类号: 

  • C922