地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (3): 368-375.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.03.006

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全面二孩背景下中国省际人口迁移格局预测及城镇化效应

龙晓君1,2,3(), 郑健松4, 李小建2,3, 朱纪广2, 刘严松5, 陈慕华1   

  1. 1. 广东财经大学地理与旅游学院, 广东 广州 510320
    2.河南财经政法大学城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心, 河南 郑州 450046
    3.河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心, 河南 开封 475004
    4. 广东财经大学统计与数学学院, 广东 广州 510320
    5.成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室, 四川 成都 610095
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-12 修回日期:2017-09-02 出版日期:2018-03-21 发布日期:2018-03-21
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:龙晓君(1973-),女,河南开封人,博士,讲师,主要研究领域为地质生态环境与地质灾害、灾害经济、人口地理学。E-mail:935627279@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471117)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD770021)、河南省2015博士后科研基金项目(20150229)、广东省哲学社科“十三五”规划2017年度学科共建项目(GD17XSH07)、2017年度广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(人文社科)、广东省大学生创新训练项目(201710592017)资助

Prediction of Spatial Pattern of Interprovincial Migration and Impacts on Urbanization Under the Perspective of Universal “Two-Child” Policy in China

Xiaojun Long1,2,3(), Jiansong Zheng4, Xiaojian Li2,3, Jiguang Zhu2, Yansong Liu5, Muhua Chen1   

  1. 1. Schoolof Geography and Tourism, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, Guangdong, China;
    2. Henan Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban-Rural Coordinated Development, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China
    3.Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
    4. School of Statistics and Mathematics, Guangdong University of Finance & Economics, Guangzhou 510320, Guangdong, China;
    5. State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, Sichuan, China
  • Received:2017-05-12 Revised:2017-09-02 Online:2018-03-21 Published:2018-03-21
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471117), Major Project in Key Research Base for Humanities and Social Sciences of Minstry of Education (16JJD770021), 2015 Supported by Henan Postdoctoral Science Foundation (20150229), Guangdong Philosophy and Social Science “13th Five-Year” Planning Project (GD17XSH07), Special Universities Innovation Project of Humanities and Social Sciences in Guangdong in 2017, Guangdong Province Students Innovation Training Project (201710592017).

摘要:

采用第六次中国人口普查数据,基于全面二孩实施背景,预测未来中国与省际城乡人口规模以及省际人口迁移规模;采用2010年人口数据和2020年预测人口数据,从对比视角分析了中国省际人口迁移格局变化及其对城镇化发展的影响。研究发现: 城乡全面放开二孩政策不会带来区域人口数量的剧烈反弹; 综合考虑省际人口迁移方向与强度,将中国31个省份划分为4种类型; 省际人口迁移促进了城镇化率的提高及省际差异的缩小,对2010~2020年中国城镇化率的增加的贡献占到了30.77%。

关键词: 年龄移算法, 马尔可夫链, 区域类型, 城镇化

Abstract:

From the policy allowing couples to bear a second child if one parent is an only child to universal “Two-Child” policy, fertility policy in China had changed in succession, which had caused extensive social concerns and would have an influence on Chinese demographics in the future. Based on the implementation of universal “Two-child ” Policy, using the data from China 2010 censuses, the article predicts the number of urban and rural population by the age shift algorithm as well as the number of interprovincial population migration with Markov chain in 2020. From the data in 2010 and 2020, the article analyzes the change of population migration pattern in China and its impact on urbanization development from the perspective of contrast. The results are as follows: 1) The “Two-Child” policy would not bring a sharp rebound in population size in 2020. 2) According to the intensity and direction of migration, the area types of interprovincial migration can be divided into four modes: active areas have a larger migration and their immigration is much more than emigration, which is mainly located in the eastern coastal provinces; active areas have a larger migration and their emigration is much more than immigration, which is mainly located in the central and western China; active areas have a larger migration and their immigration is nearly equal to emigration; inactive area have a smaller migration, such as some provinces with a large ethnic minorities population. 3) Interprovincial population migration has a positive effect on the development of urbanization rate. It accounted for 30.77% of the augmentation of urbanization rate and it also narrows the discrepancies of urbanization rate among provinces in China, during 2010-2020. The implementation of universal “Two-Child” policy is a major adjustment of fertility policy in recent years, which will impact on the urbanization and the spatial distribution of populationto a certain extent. Because the influence has hysteresis quality, the fertility policy has not an obvious performance when it started to implement. In order to reduce long-term side effect from policy change, it is necessary to forecast and research potential social impact from the new policy.

Key words: age shift algorithm, Markov chain, area type, urbanization

中图分类号: 

  • C922