基于DEA-ESDA的农业生态效率评价及时空分异研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.03.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用考虑非期望产出的SBM(Slack-Based Measure)模型,结合探索性空间数据分析方法（ESDA）,对甘肃省各县（区）2000~2014年的农业生态效率及空间分布格局进行实证分析。结果表明：① 考虑非期望产出和不考虑非期望产出的农业生态效率之间存在着明显差异,而考虑非期望产出的农业生态效率结果更符合实际情况。② 在研究期内甘肃省农业生态效率呈持续上升态势,但整体效率偏低;空间变化趋势呈现自西向东、自南向北递减态势,但南北差异小于东西差异。③ 从全局空间分异来看,除2001~2003年外,甘肃省各县（区）农业生态效率呈现正相关特征,空间集聚现象显著;从局部空间分异来看,处于空间正相关地区数量在研究期内逐渐下降,区域农业生态效率的集聚现象减弱。农业生态效率高高（HH）集聚主要分布在河西走廊及甘南地区,空间上具有明显的向邻接地区扩散的趋势;低低（LL）集聚主要分布在甘肃省中部地区,空间分布较为稳定。

关键词: 农业生态效率, SBM模型, 探索性数据分析, 空间分异, 甘肃省

Abstract:

The evaluation of agricultural ecological efficiency will help to understand the regional agricultural economy development status. In this paper, the agricultural water footprint and agricultural grey water footprint were respectively introduced into input indexes and undesirable output indexes. Then the SBM model of considering the undesirable outputs of DEA was used to calculate the agricultural ecological efficiency, and the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) was applied to analyze its spatial distribution, agglomeration and changing trend from 2000 to 2014 in all counties (districts) in Gansu Province. The results showed that: 1) The agricultural ecological efficiency values of considering undesirable outputs were lower than the values of no consideration of undesirable outputs, and the farmer were more correspond with practical situations. 2) During 2000-2014, the agricultural ecological efficiency values were low on the whole and showed an ascending tendency in Gansu. And in spatial change, the values showed a decreasing tendency from west to east and from south to north, but the difference of values from south to north was less than that of values from west to east. 3) From the global spatial difference of efficiency values, except for 2001, 2002, and 2003, the agricultural ecological efficiency values showed the positive correlation and have remarkably agglomerated in space distribution in all counties (districts) in Gansu. From the local spatial difference, the quantity of counties with positive correlation was gradually decreasing and the spatial agglomeration of the regional agricultural ecological efficiency was reduced during the period of study. The regions with High-High (HH) correlation pattern mainly located in the Hexi Corridor and Gannan areas, and they have an obvious diffusion trend toward the adjacent areas on the space. The regions with Low-Low (LL) correlation pattern mainly located in the middle area of Gansu and the spatial distribution is relatively stable. The above evaluation results could reflect well the development condition of agricultural economy of Gansu Province in the last decade, and they could provide an important guiding and reference for realizing sustainable agricultural development in Gansu Province.

Key words: agricultural ecological efficiency, SBM model, Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), spatial differentiation, Gansu Province

中图分类号:

K902

郑德凤, 郝帅, 孙才志. 基于DEA-ESDA的农业生态效率评价及时空分异研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(3): 419-427.

Defeng Zheng, Shuai Hao, Caizhi Sun. Evaluation of Agricultural Ecological Efficiency and Its Spatial-temporal Differentiation Based on DEA-ESDA[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(3): 419-427.

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指标类型	指标选取	指标说明
投入	土地投入	农作物播种面积(×10³hm²)
	劳动力投入	农林牧渔从业人员(万人)
	化肥投入	化肥折纯量(万t)
	农业机械投入	农业机械总动力(kW·h)
	农业水足迹	农业生产真实水资源消耗量 (×10⁸m³)
期望产出	农业经济增长	农林牧渔生产总值(万元)
非期望产出	农业灰水足迹	农业生产造成的水环境损失量 (×10⁸m³)

产品	粮食	食用油	蔬菜	水果	肉类
虚拟水含量	1.524	5.24	0.136	1.0	6.7
产品	奶类	禽蛋	水产品	白酒	啤酒
虚拟水含量	1.9	3.55	5.0	1.982	0.296

年份	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Moran’s I	0.5368	-0.0149	0.0355	-0.0179	0.3258	0.2845	0.2721	0.2982
Z-value	8.5008	-0.0609	0.8453	-0.1240	4.5829	4.1926	3.8324	4.2309
p-value	0.001	0.5560	0.1830	0.4940	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001
年份	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Moran’s I	0.2190	0.2342	0.2347	0.2970	0.2689	0.1897	0.1659
Z-value	3.0816	3.4172	3.3360	4.1354	3.8202	2.7300	2.4537
p-value	0.005	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.007	0.009