基于空间自相关的区域经济极化结构演化研究——以江苏省为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.04.009

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 557-563.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.04.009

基于空间自相关的区域经济极化结构演化研究——以江苏省为例

张春梅^1,²(), 张小林²(), 徐海英¹, 卢中辉¹, 刘传明¹

1.淮阴师范学院城市与环境学院, 江苏淮安 223300
2. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏南京 210046

收稿日期:2017-04-18 修回日期:2017-07-04 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-20
作者简介:
作者简介：张春梅（1974-）,女,江苏东海人,博士,副教授,研究方向为城乡发展与区域规划。E-mail: hysfzcm@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41371136）、江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目（2014SJB663）、教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目（12YJCZH127）、教育部人文社会科学研究项目（15YJC790067）资助

Evolution of Regional Economic Polarization Structure Based on Spatial Autocorrelation: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

Chunmei Zhang^1,²(), Xiaolin Zhang²(), Haiying Xu¹, Zhonghui Lu¹, Chuanming Liu¹

1. School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai’an 223300, Jiangsu, China;
2. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, Jiangsu, China

Received:2017-04-18 Revised:2017-07-04 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-20
Supported by:
[National Natural Science Foundation of China (41371136), Philosophy and Social Science Research Project of Jiangsu Universities (2014SJB663), Youth Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Education Department of China (12YJCZH127), Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Education Department of China (15YJC790067)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从空间自相关视角厘清经济发展水平较高和较低地区的空间组织关系演化规律对区域经济健康发展具有重要意义。在界定集极、孤极和外围等概念基础上,运用地统计分析方法,按两级三区和三级五区结构体系分别构建江苏省全局和局部经济空间极化结构,分析其演化过程,结果显示：①全局空间集极范围不断扩大,孤极数量减少,逐渐形成南集极北孤极、南极北外的空间结构,其间空间自相关作用逐渐增强,区位是极化动因;② 局部空间演化走势不尽相同：沿江和沿京杭运河地区经济空间极化结构逐渐升级,而沿东陇海和沿海地区却相对恶化。因此认为当前江苏省全局空间中南北显著分化和局部空间相背演化现象值得关注。

关键词: 空间自相关, 区域经济, 空间极化结构, 江苏省

Abstract:

：From the perspective of spatial autocorrelation, it is of great significance for the healthy development of the regional economy to clarify the evolution law of spatial organization relationship about high level areas and low level areas. In this article, the concepts of aggregated growth pole, isolated growth pole, the chief aggregated growth pole, the chief isolated growth pole, the subordinate aggregated growth pole, the subordinate isolated growth pole and periphery are defined, then the global and local spatial polarization structures about regional economy of Jiangsu Province are respectively constructed according to two levels and three zones structure system of “aggregated growth pole-isolated growth pole-periphery”. With the statistical analysis technique, three levels and five zones structure system of “chief aggregated growth pole, chief isolated growth pole, subordinate aggregated growth pole, subordinate isolated growth pole, periphery” is analyzed. On the basis of them, the evolution processes of regional economic spatial polarization structure in Jiangsu Province are analyzed. The results show that: First, the global spatial structure of regional economy in Jiangsu Province is made up of three parts which include aggregated growth pole, isolated growth pole and periphery, and “aggregated growth pole in South , isolated growth pole in North” , and “growth pole in South and periphery in North” is forming gradually, among them, the range of aggregated growth pole is expanding , the number of isolated growth pole is reducing , the spatial autocorrelation function strengthen gradually, the trickle-down effect is enhanced. Second, the evolutions of local spatial polarization structures are not the same, the spatial polarization structures along the Yangtze Rive and the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal are gradually upgraded, while the spatial polarization structures along the east Longhai coast are relatively deteriorated: the polarization zones along the Yangtze Rive are enlarged, upgraded and gathered, the polarization zones along the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal are reduced but upgraded and gathered to the South , the polarization zones along the Coastline are downgraded and gathered to the South, the polarization zones along the Longhai east are reduced and downgraded. On the basis of them, the phenomenons of North-South differentiation and opposite evolutions in the global and local spatial polarization structure of regional economy in Jiangsu Province is worthy of attention now, at the same time, the varied development policies are necessary to guide the spatial structure optimization according to local conditions.

Key words: spatial autocorrelation, regional economy, spatial polarization structure, Jiangsu Province

中图分类号:

F129.9

张春梅, 张小林, 徐海英, 卢中辉, 刘传明. 基于空间自相关的区域经济极化结构演化研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(4): 557-563.

Chunmei Zhang, Xiaolin Zhang, Haiying Xu, Zhonghui Lu, Chuanming Liu. Evolution of Regional Economic Polarization Structure Based on Spatial Autocorrelation: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(4): 557-563.

图/表 5

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年份	极化区（I）								外围区（II）			I与II间经济差距
	集极				孤极				外围区（II）
	数量（个）	范围（个）	经济		数量（个）	范围（个）	经济		范围（个）	经济
	数量（个）	范围（个）	实力	竞争力	数量（个）	范围（个）	实力	竞争力	范围（个）	实力	竞争力	实力	竞争力
1978	1	19	1.48	1.48	6	8	1.11	1.11	28	0.64	0.64	0.73	0.73
1984	1	21	3.38	1.49	4	6	2.52	1.12	28	1.37	0.61	1.82	0.80
2003	1	22	78.27	1.76	3	5	47.44	1.80	28	17.14	0.39	55.41	1.25
2015	1	25	295.69	1.41	2	2	212.78	1.02	28	131.90	0.63	157.65	0.75

年份	块金值	偏基台值	基台值	变程（m）	基底效应	空间自相关系数
1978	0.1214	0.2029	0.3243	410883	37.43	62.57
1984	0.0913	0.3375	0.4288	418952	21.29	78.71
2003	0.1952	1.3817	1.5769	547443	12.38	87.62
2015	0.0427	0.5243	0.5670	562557	7.53	92.47

局部空间	年份	极化区（I）								外围区（II）	空间自相关系数	经济实力	经济竞争力	I与II间经济竞争力差距
		主极化区（A）				次极化区（B）
		主集极		主孤极		次集极		次孤极
		数量（个）	范围（个）	数量（个）	范围（个）	数量（个）	范围（个）	数量（个）	范围（个）	范围（个）
沿江地区	1978	1	10	1	1	0	0	6	9	9	0.14	1.23	1.23	0.72
	1984	1	12	1	1	0	0	6	9	7	0.57	2.94	1.30	0.78
	2003	1	14	0	0	0	0	4	8	7	0.83	65.79	1.48	1.31
	2015	1	13	0	0	2	12	0	0	4	0.76	276.65	1.32	0.66
沿东陇海地区	1978	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	8	1.00	0.75	0.75	0.81
	1984	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	8	1.00	1.62	0.72	0.73
	2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	8	1.00	21.83	0.49	0.97
	2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	9	1.00	133.17	0.64	0.53
沿京杭运河地区	1978	1	8	2	2	0	0	6	9	14	0.71	1.07	1.07	0.73
	1984	1	11	0	0	1	4	3	4	14	0.91	2.52	1.11	0.89
	2003	1	12	0	0	0	0	3	5	16	0.98	53.53	1.21	1.61
	2015	1	12	0	0	1	4	1	1	16	0.97	231.76	1.11	0.91
沿海地区	1978	0	0	2	2	0	0	3	4	11	0.56	0.80	0.80	0.53
	1984	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	4	12	0.70	1.67	0.74	0.47
	2003	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	10	1.00	26.31	0.59	0.51
	2015	0	0	0	0	1	5	1	1	11	0.92	159.82	0.76	0.42

基于空间自相关的区域经济极化结构演化研究——以江苏省为例

Evolution of Regional Economic Polarization Structure Based on Spatial Autocorrelation: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

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