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### 气候变化下中国未来综合环境风险区划研究

1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101
2.湖北科技学院,湖北 咸宁 437100
• 收稿日期:2017-03-13 修回日期:2017-07-20 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-20
• 作者简介:

作者简介：刘星才（1984-）,男,江西吉安人,助理研究员,主要从事陆地水循环和气候变化研究。E-mail: xingcailiu@igsnrr.ac.cn

• 基金资助:
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB955403)、国家杰出青年科学基金项目(41425002)、中组部青年拔尖人才计划项目资助

### Regionalization of Integrated Environmental Risk of China Under Future Climate Change

Xingcai Liu1(), Qiuhong Tang1(), Yuanyuan Yin1, Xinchuang Xu2

1. 1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
2. Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100, Hubei, China
• Received:2017-03-13 Revised:2017-07-20 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-20
• Supported by:
[The National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955403), National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (41425002), the National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China.]

Abstract:

Environmental risks, such as crop failure, mortality and vegetation deterioration caused by warming, drought, flood, heatwave, etc., tend to be more complex and interactive with each other. Integrated Environmental Risk Regionalization becomes the fundament for multi-hazard prevention and reduction under a changing environment. Regarding potential large losses from the agricultural system, ecosystem, and human being caused by climate change, we assessed the integrated environmental risk based on the crop yield changes, ecosystem shift and mortality by heatwave in China during the late 21st century (2071-2099) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Bias-corrected projections of future climate change were derived from five generic circulation model. Four major crops (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) were considered, and the crop yield changes were projected by four global gridded crop models. The changes of crop yield during 2071-2099 compared to the period of 1980-2010 were computed to identify the risk in agricultural system. The Γ metric was used to assess the risk of ecosystem shift under climate change. The Γ metric describes the ecosystem state and its changes based on a set of macroscopic variables derived from four global gridded vegetation models. The larger Γ, changes in ecosystem state variables, indicates the larger risk of ecosystem shift in future. A heatwave event was identified by three successive days of high temperature that >35 °C. The mortality rate caused by heatwave events was estimated by the difference of mortality rate in a period with high-temperature and that in non-high-temperature days of the year. Regression was established between heatwave events and mortality rates. It was then used for estimation of mortality rate in the 2071-2099 period. These environmental risks were combined by a multi-risk index (IERI) to illustrate the integrated environmental risk in the future. In this study, the same weights were set for all environmental risks in the IERI calculation. The IERI was calculated at a spatial resolution of 0.5° for the 2071-2099 period under the four RCPs. The results showed that high integrated environmental risks will appear in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, relatively high integrated environmental risks will appear in the South China, and moderate integrated environmental risks will occur in the Tibet region. The integrated environmental risk regions (IERR) were then delineated based on the assessment. Six IERRs were identified for China, i.e., Northwest-Low-Risk region, Northeast-Relatively-Low-Risk region, Tibet-Moderate-Risk region, Jin-Shaan-Moderate-Risk region, South-China-High-Risk region, and Huang-Huai-Hai-High-Risk region. Fourty-two sub regions were further divided upon the six IERRs. Due to largely different environmental conditions of the six IERRs, they include quite different numbers of sub regions, namely 2, 6, 8, 7, 10, and 9 subregions, respectively. Though many environmental risks caused by climate change were not included in this assessment, the preliminary integrated environmental risk regionalization would be a reference for decision makers and future studies.

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