1960~2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.08.021

地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (8): 1379-1390.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.08.021

1960~2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征

丁之勇^1,²(), 董义阳^3,⁴, 鲁瑞洁^1,²()

1.环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室/北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875
2. 北京师范大学防沙治沙教育部工程研究中心,北京 100875
3. 清华大学水利水电工程系,北京 100084
4. 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

收稿日期:2017-09-10 修回日期:2017-11-13 出版日期:2018-08-20 发布日期:2018-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介：丁之勇(1990-),男,汉族,江西抚州人,博士研究生,主要从事气候变化与环境演变研究。E-mail: ucaszyd@escience.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划重大自然灾害监测预警与防范重点专项 (2017YFC1502401)、国家自然科学基金(41571184) 资助

Spatio-temporal Variability of Temperature Extremes in Tianshan Mountains Area, Northwest China, During 1960-2015

Zhiyong Ding^1,²(), Yiyang Dong^3,⁴, Ruijie Lu^1,²()

1. Engineering Center of Desertification and Blown-sand Control of Ministry of Education/Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. MOE Engineering Center of Desertification and Blown-sand Control, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
4. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Received:2017-09-10 Revised:2017-11-13 Online:2018-08-20 Published:2018-08-20
Supported by:
National Key R&D Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disasters (2017YFC1502401), National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571184)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于中国天山地区35个气象站点1960~2015年逐日最高、最低气温实测资料,应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析法, 空间分析法等研究了极端气温的时空变化特征,并探讨了气温指数的环流背景因素。结果表明：① 近56 a来,年平均最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,而日较差呈下降趋势; 暖指数和日最低(高)气温极小值均呈上升趋势,而其他冷指数呈减小趋势;从季节变化看,除暖昼、暖夜之外,大部分气温指数的冬季变暖幅度均明显高于夏季。② 空间分布上,天山山区年平均最低气温和日较差以及大部分冷指数的变暖幅度大于南北坡,而暖指数则表现为南坡大于北坡和山区。③ 高温和低温指数变化幅度表现出明显不对称性变化,年平均最低温的变暖幅度明显大于年平均最高温,冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,夜指数变暖幅度显著大于昼指数。④ 天山地区年平均最高(低)气温和极端气温冷指数受环流指数北极涛动(AO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响较大,而北太平洋涛动(NPO)、东亚夏季风(EASMI)、南亚夏季风(SASMI)和南海夏季风(SCSMI)是暖指数变化的重要因素。

关键词: 天山, 极端气温, 冷/暖指数, 环流指数

Abstract:

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature data from the 35 stations (1960-2015) in over Tianshan Mountains area (TMA), using the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall trend analysis as well as correlation analysis to analyze the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme temperature and the influence of 8 atmospheric circulation index. The results show that: 1) Nearly 56 years, the annual mean maximum(minimum) temperatures have significantly increased and monthly minimum value of daily minimum (maximum) temperature shows obviously increased, while the occurrence of diurnal temperature range and cold spell duration days, frost days, ice days, cold nights and cold days has decreased. From the seasonal dynamics, excepting warm day and warm night, the warming magnitudes of most temperature indices in winter are obviously higher than those in summer. 2) For the spatial distribution, the warming magnitude of annual mean minimum temperature diurnal temperature range and most indices of cold extremes in Tianshan Mountains are greater than those in northern and southern Tianshan Mountains, while the indices of warm extremes in the southern Tianshan Mountains have a greater magnitude than other areas. 3) The changes of warm and cold temperature indices are asymmetrical, the magnitude of changes in the annual mean minimum temperatures is obviously greater than the annual mean maximum temperatures, the magnitude of changes in cold extremes are obviously greater than that of warm indices. The rangeability of night indices are larger than those of daily indices. 4) AO, NAO and ENSO are the main factors causing the extreme temperature of the annual mean maximum (minimum) temperatures and cold indices in the TMA, while NPO, EASMI, SASMI and SCSMI are the main factors affecting most of the warm indices.

Key words: Tianshan Mountains, extreme temperature, warm and cold index, atmospheric circulation

中图分类号:

P467

丁之勇, 董义阳, 鲁瑞洁. 1960~2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(8): 1379-1390.

Zhiyong Ding, Yiyang Dong, Ruijie Lu. Spatio-temporal Variability of Temperature Extremes in Tianshan Mountains Area, Northwest China, During 1960-2015[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2018, 38(8): 1379-1390.

图/表 9

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类别	序号	代码	指数名称	指数定义	单位
其他	1	TXam	年平均最高气温	年内月最高气温的平均值	℃
	2	TNam	年平均最低气温	年内月最低气温的平均值	℃
	3	DTR	气温日较差	年内日最高气温与最低气温的差值	℃
极端暖指数	4	WSDI	暖日持续日数	年内至少连续6 d日最高气温（TX）>90%分位值的日数	d
	5	TR	热夜日数	年内日最低气温(TN)>20℃的日数	d
	6	SU	夏日日数	日最高气温(TX) >25oC 的日数	d
	7	TN90p	暖夜日数	日最低气温(TN)大于1960~2015年的第90个百分位数值的日数	d
	8	TX90p	暖昼日数	日最高气温( TX)大于1960~2015年的第90个百分位数值的日数	d
	9	TXx	日最高气温极大值	年内日最高气温(TX)的极大值	℃
	10	TNx	日最低气温极大值	年内日最低气温(TN)的极大值	℃
	11	GSL	作物生长季	日平均气温>5℃ 的日数	d
极端冷指数	12	CSDI	冷日持续日数	年内至少连续6 d日最低气温（TN）<10%分位值的日数	d
	13	FD	霜冻日数	年内日最低气温(TN)< 0°C的日数	d
	14	ID	冰冻日数	年内日最高气温(TX) < 0°C的日数	d
	15	TN10p	冷夜日数	日最低气温(TN)小于1960~2015的第10个百分位数值的日数	d
	16	TX10p	冷昼日数	日最高气温(TX)小于1960~2015的第10个百分位数值的日数	d
	17	TNn	日最低气温极小值	每个月日最低气温(TN)的极小值	℃
	18	TXn	日最高气温极小值	每个月日最高气温(TX)的极小值	℃

指数	北坡				山区				南坡				天山地区
指数	春	夏	秋	冬	春	夏	秋	冬	春	夏	秋	冬	春	夏	秋	冬
TXam	0.26	0.08	0.29^*	0.19	0.21^*	0.14^**	0.25^**	0.15	0.25^**	0.23^**	0.26^**	0.13	0.24^*	0.15^*	0.27^**	0.15
TNam	0.37^**	0.30^**	0.36^**	0.57^*	0.38^**	0.48^**	0.39^*	0.49^**	0.41^**	0.35^**	0.43^**	0.61^**	0.39^**	0.37^**	0.39^**	0.55^**
DTR	-0.12^*	-0.22^**	-0.19^**	-0.41^**	-0.17^**	-0.34^**	-0.31^**	-0.38^**	-0.17^**	-0.08	-0.16^**	-0.48^**	-0.15^**	-0.21^**	-0.22^**	-0.42^**
TN90p	3.24^**	2.97^**	2.95^**	2.52^**	4.29^**	5.16^**	4.88^**	3.16^**	3.98^**	2.89^**	3.62^**	4.13^**	3.84^**	3.67^**	3.82^**	3.27^**
TX90p	2.19^*	0.39	1.55^*	0.72	1.83^*	0.92	2.09^*	0.67	3.19^**	2.32^**	2.99^**	1.43	2.41^**	1.21^*	2.21^**	0.94
TXx	0.35^*	0.04	0.33^**	0.19	0.18^*	0.08	0.29^**	0.15	0.29^**	0.19^**	0.38^**	0.18	0.27^**	0.10	0.33^**	0.18
TNx	0.46^**	0.32^**	0.46^**	0.49^**	0.37^**	0.43^**	0.50^**	0.41^**	0.41^**	0.23^**	0.39^**	0.47^**	0.42^**	0.32^**	0.45^**	0.46^**
TN10p	-1.88^*	-3.48^**	-4.31^**	-3.62^**	-2.24^**	-5.34^**	-4.97^**	-3.32^**	-2.67^**	-3.19^**	-4.16^**	-4.57^**	-2.26^**	-4.05^**	-4.48^**	-3.84^**
TX10p	-0.58	-0.52	-1.80	-1.68	-0.69	-1.36^**	-1.63^**	-1.48	-0.73	-1.39^**	-1.81	-1.87	-0.67	-1.09^*	-1.75^*	-1.68
TNn	0.31^*	0.38^**	0.59^**	0.62^**	0.37^**	0.50^**	0.63^**	0.55^**	0.42^**	0.45^**	0.56^**	0.61^**	0.37^**	0.45^**	0.59^**	0.59^**
TXn	0.07	-0.002	0.36^*	0.21	0.11	0.18^*	0.33^*	0.15	0.10	0.27^*	0.32^*	0.13	0.09	0.15	0.34^*	0.16

指数对比	对比依据	站点数	站点比例	指数对比	对比依据	站点数	站点比例
FD>SU	Abs	29	83%	TN10p>TX90p	Abs	28	80%
FD>GSL	Abs	25	71%	TN10p>TN90p	Abs	13	37%
FD>TR	Abs	24	68%	CSDI>WSDI	Abs	21	60%
ID>SU	Abs	9	25%	TNn>TNx	Rel	25	71%
TN90p>TX90p	Abs	29	83%	TNn>TXn	Rel	32	91%
TN90p>TX10p	Abs	33	94%	TNx>TXx	Rel	27	77%
TX90p>TX10p	Abs	33	94%	TXn>TXx	Rel	26	74%
TN10p>TX10p	Abs	34	97%

指数	单位	本研究(1960~2015年)				新疆^[22]	青藏高原^[14]	东北地区^[16]	黄土高原^[15]	秦岭^[19]	长江流域^[17]	全国^[11]	全球^[4]
指数	单位	北坡	山区	南坡	天山地区	新疆^[22]	青藏高原^[14]	东北地区^[16]	黄土高原^[15]	秦岭^[19]	长江流域^[17]	全国^[11]	全球^[4]
TXam	℃/10a	0.20^**	0.18^**	0.21^**	0.19^**	—	—		0.32^*	—	—	—	—
TNam	℃/10a	0.42^**	0.48^**	0.44^**	0.45^**	—	—		0.42^*	—	—	—	—
DTR	℃/10a	-0.22^**	-0.29^**	-0.22^**	-0.25^**	-0.26^**	-0.20^*	-0.24^*	-0.08	-0.07	-0.09^*	-0.18^*	-0.08^*
WSDI	d/10a	0.37	0.60^*	1.97^**	0.95^**	0.88^**	—		—	0.56	0.73^*	—	—
TR	d/10a	2.05^**	0.12^*	2.61^**	1.59^**	1.71^**	—	1.42^*	—	1.95^**	1.05^*	—	—
SU	d/10a	1.34^*	1.29^**	2.45^**	1.59^**	2.14^**	—	2.30^*	—	2.49^**	2.16^*	1.18	—
TN90p	d/10a	2.95^**	4.42^**	3.64^**	3.67^**	6.23^**	1.58^*	2.17^*	1.80^*	2.70^**	2.95^*	1.75^*	1.58^*
TX90p	d/10a	1.28^*	1.43^**	2.49^**	1.73^**	3.59^**	1.26^*	0.97^*	1.93^*	1.37^**	1.71^*	0.62	0.89^*
TXx	℃/10a	0.02	0.10	0.15	0.09	—	0.28^*	0.11	0.63^*	0.05	0.14^*	0.07	0.21^*
TNx	℃/10a	0.34^**	0.48^**	0.19^*	0.34^**	—	0.25^*	0.23^*	0.39^*	0.11^*	0.18^*	0.21^*	0.30^*
GSL	d/10a	2.24^**	4.20^**	2.39^**	2.94^**	2.74^**	4.25^*	2.62^*	3.76^*	2.38^**	—	3.04^*	—
CSDI	d/10a	-1.72^**	-1.23^**	-1.89^**	-1.61^**	-1.27^**	—		—	-0.29	-1.60^*	—	—
FD	d/10a	-2.89^**	-4.84^**	-3.25^**	-3.66^**	-3.69^**	-4.32^*	-3.36^*	-3.46^*	-3.39^**	-3.04^*	-3.73^*	—
ID	d/10a	-1.63^*	-1.32	-0.53	-1.16	-1.61^*	-2.46^*	-1.74^*	—	-0.50^*	-0.42^*	—	—
TN10p	d/10a	-3.23^**	-3.86^**	-3.59^**	-3.56^**	-6.57^**	-2.38^*	-1.80^*	-1.86^*	-2.39^**	-3.45^*	-2.06^*	-1.26^*
TX10p	d/10a	-1.07^*	-1.22^**	-1.41^**	-1.23^**	-2.6^**	-0.85^*	-0.86^*	-0.95^*	-0.95^*	-1.03^*	-0.47	-0.62^*
TNn	℃/10a	0.63^**	0.57^**	0.65^**	0.62^**	—	0.69^*	0.83^*	0.44^*	0.31^**	0.42^*	0.63^*	0.71^*
TXn	℃/10a	0.33	0.24	0.29	0.29	—	0.30^*	0.39	0.19	0.26^*	0.28^*	0.35^*	0.37

指数	TXam	TNam	DTR	WSDI	TR	SU	TN90p	TX90p	TXx	TNx	GSL	CSDI	FD	ID	TN10p	TX10p	TNn	TXn
AO	0.31^*	0.42^**	-0.33^*	0.24	0.22	0.25	0.27^*	0.19	0.22	0.32^*	0.16	-0.25	-0.32^*	-0.22	-0.41^**	-0.29^*	0.39^**	0.35^**
NAO	0.13	0.18	-0.14	0.09	0.07	0.15	0.01	-0.06	0.14	0.16	0.03	-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.20	-0.20	0.35^**	0.37^**
SOI	-0.10	-0.12	0.08	-0.10	0.12	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.06	0.05	-0.05	0.31^*	0.12	0.20	0.16	0.10	-0.26	-0.17
MEI	0.18	0.28^*	-0.25	0.20	-0.01	0.01	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.10	0.10	-0.36^**	-0.24	-0.27^*	-0.30^*	-0.14	0.35^**	0.22
NPO	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.04	-0.22	-0.16	-0.14	-0.09	-0.26^*	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	0.03	0.00	0.05	0.18	0.14	0.12
WPI	0.08	-0.01	0.13	0.17	-0.21	-0.09	-0.07	0.12	0.00	-0.13	-0.14	0.00	0.04	-0.24	0.07	0.00	-0.01	0.05
EASMI	-0.17	-0.28^*	0.27^*	-0.25	-0.14	0.05	-0.27^*	-0.25	0.06	-0.05	-0.09	0.23	0.24	0.28^*	0.19	0.02	-0.12	-0.06
SASMI	-0.01	-0.25	0.43^**	-0.09	-0.21	0.09	-0.19	-0.04	-0.13	-0.31^*	0.02	0.11	0.22	0.07	0.21	-0.08	-0.17	-0.03
SCSMI	-0.10	-0.37^**	0.52^**	-0.22	-0.29^*	0.14	-0.37^**	-0.21	-0.13	-0.35^**	-0.11	0.24	0.23	0.24	0.37^**	0.02	-0.21	-0.10

1960~2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal Variability of Temperature Extremes in Tianshan Mountains Area, Northwest China, During 1960-2015

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