地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 52-60.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.01.006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国收缩城市及其发展的负外部性

郭源园1,李莉2()   

  1. 1. 香港中文大学地理与资源管理系,香港 999077
    2. 北京大学城市规划与设计学院,广东 深圳 518055
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-05 修回日期:2018-06-05 出版日期:2019-01-10 发布日期:2019-01-10
  • 作者简介:郭源园(1989-),男(侗族),湖南怀化人,博士研究生,研究方向为区域经济、城市交通。E-mail: guoyuanyuan@sz.pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目资助(41701139)

Change in the Negative Externality of the Shrinking Cities in China

Yuanyuan Guo1,Li Li2()   

  1. 1. Department of Geography and Resource Management, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
    2. School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, Guangdong, China
  • Received:2017-11-05 Revised:2018-06-05 Online:2019-01-10 Published:2019-01-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701139)

摘要:

以中国地级市为研究对象,选取2003年和2014年2个时点,通过分析各地级市市辖区、非市辖区的人口变化及二者相对变化情况判断收缩及潜在收缩城市;基于城市发展的负外部性内涵,构建涵盖房地产、环境、交通、教育、医疗及就业等方面指标的评价体系,运用主成分分析法测度收缩及潜在收缩城市发展的负外部性,并分析其变化方向。研究结果表明:中国的城市发展仍然以增长为主,收缩城市及潜在收缩城市比例并不高,收缩城市主要分布于东北三省及西北地区,潜在收缩城市则集中分布于河南、湖南等中部人口大省及广西、贵州等省、自治区;收缩城市发展过程中其负外部性显著改善,尤其是处于稳定收缩阶段的绝对收缩城市最为明显,辐射式收缩城市次之,而处于收缩初始阶段的郊区化收缩城市则表现出两极分化特征;大部分潜在收缩城市其负外部性有不同程度的加剧,且负外部性加剧的城市主要以湖南、河南的潜在收缩城市为主。

关键词: 收缩城市, 市辖区, 负外部性, 精明收缩

Abstract:

Along with the aging and migration of population, deindustrialization and economic crises, the beginning of 21th Century there has witnessed a phenomenon of urban shrinkage across China, which is quite common for industrial and resource-based cities. The shrinkage caused a negative impact on social, environment and economic aspects so that it has gradually been a concerned topic for the future development of Chinese cities. As one of the major challenges that China are faced during the process of new-type urbanization, rather than highlighting urban growth, the smart urban shrinkage could be a possible way for shrinking cities to step into a sustainable way. The purpose of this article is to measure the urban negative externality and evaluate the impact of shrinkage on the change of such externality. With the usage of population data of all prefecture-level cities(Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are excluded) in 2003 and 2014, this article identified the types of urban shrinkage through analyzing the population changes of municipal district and non-municipal district separately, as well as their difference during this period. Furthermore, a comprehensive index system has been built up to measure the negative externality of all prefecture-level cities. The index system includes aspects of estate price, urban environment, transportation, education, health and employment. By applying the method of principal component analysis (PCA), a synthesis score was calculated, followed by revealing the change direction of urban externality for each type of shrinking and potential shrinking cities. The results of the study are listed as follows: 1) urban development across China is still centered on urban growth, and the shrinkage and potential shrinkage are not very popular. Shrinking cities are mainly distributed in Northeast China (i.e. Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning) and part of Northwest China (i.e. the south of Gansu). However, potential shrinking cities tend to gather in Central China, including Henan and Hunan (two populous provinces), as well as in some inland provinces (i.e. Guangxi and Guizhou); 2) the urban negative externality of shrinking cities will exacerbate as their population increase, and the type of sheer shrinking cities is most remarkably reflected, followed by the type of dispersive ones. But in terms of suburbanized shrinking cities, the change of urban negative externality shows a bi-directional characteristic, namely the externality of part of these cities increase while others decrease equally in number; 3) an exacerbated urban negative externality with different degrees occurs on most potential shrinking cities, and they are mainly located in Hunan and Henan, two provinces in Central China. As for the urban shrinkage, which is not widespread across the whole country, the government should pay much attention on shrinking and potential shrinking cities. Implementing efficient and appropriate policies (i.e. economic restructuring, industrial upgrading, innovation encouragement) is imperative to make the shrinkage to be smart and maximize urban utility during the shrinking process.

Key words: shrinking city, municipal district, negative externality, smart shrinkage

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9