地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (1): 116-124.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.01.013

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域经济弹性视角下辽宁老工业基地经济振兴过程分析

李连刚1,2,张平宇1,2(),谭俊涛3,关皓明4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林 长春 130102
    2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
    3. 江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏 徐州 221116
    4. 东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林 长春 130024
  • 收稿日期:2018-01-16 修回日期:2018-04-05 出版日期:2019-01-10 发布日期:2019-01-10
  • 作者简介:李连刚(1991-),男,山东青岛人,博士研究生,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。 E-mail:liliangang@iga.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41571152、41771179、41601124);中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所“一三五”规划与特色所服务项目(Y6H2091001,IGA-135-04);中国科学院重点部署项目资助(ZDBS-SSW-SQC)

A Regional Economic Resilience Approach to the Economic Revitalization Process in Liaoning Old Industrial Base, China

Liangang Li1,2,Pingyu Zhang1,2(),Juntao Tan3,Haoming Guan4   

  1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy Sciences, Changchun 130102, Jilin, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China
    4. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, Jilin, China
  • Received:2018-01-16 Revised:2018-04-05 Online:2019-01-10 Published:2019-01-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571152、41771179、41601124);135 Planning and Featured Services Projects of IGA, Chinese Academy of Sciences(Y6H2091001,IGA-135-04);The Key Deployment Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDBS-SSW-SQC)

摘要:

区域经济弹性概念对分析老工业基地演变过程有独特的理论价值。依据经济增速划分1990~2015年辽宁老工业基地经济周期,通过构建反事实函数测度不同阶段城市和分产业经济抵抗力和恢复力,揭示了区域经济弹性的演化特征,反映了辽宁老工业基地经济振兴过程,结果发现:同一经济周期中抵抗力和恢复力之间存在负相关关系,抵抗力低受冲击影响严重的城市在随后的经济振兴过程中经济恢复发展好,存在“创造性破坏”过程;区域经济弹性是一个不断演化的过程,区域对冲击的抵抗力水平受前一经济周期恢复力的影响,区域经济弹性在引起区域应对冲击能力的变化同时其自身也因此而发生改变;辽宁老工业基地的经济振兴经历了衰退-恢复-下滑的波动历程,呈现倒“N”型,其面对冲击扰动的抵抗力较低,第二产业更易受到冲击影响,第三产业抵抗力相对较高,老工业基地长期存在路径依赖、制度锁定现象,结构性体制性问题严重,突破能力弱,过度依赖传统重化工业,新兴产业发展缓慢,现代服务业发展严重滞后。针对老工业基地演变过程的规律特征,提出了辽宁老工业基地经济振兴的对策建议。

关键词: 区域经济弹性, 抵抗力, 恢复力, 辽宁老工业基地, 东北经济振兴

Abstract:

The concept of regional economic resilience has unique theoretical value for analyzing the evolution of old industrial bases. The article divided the economic cycle of Liaoning old industrial base in 1990-2015 according to the economic growth rate, and constructed a counterfactual function to measure the economic resistance and recoverability of the urban and sub-industry in different stages, revealed the evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience, and reflected the economic revitalization process of Liaoning old industrial base. There were three main findings. First, there was a negative correlation between resistance and recoverability in the same economic cycle, the cities with low resistance were recovering well in the course of subsequent economic revitalization, and there was a 'creative destruction' process. Second, the regional economic resilience was an evolving process, the level of regional resistance to shock was influenced by the recoverability of the previous economic cycle, the shock and the process of recovery itself may lead to change in the region’s economic structure and functions, and these in turn will influence the region’s resistance to subsequent shocks, in other words, resilience both influenced the evolution of regional economies and itself evolved. Third, the economic revitalization process of the Liaoning old industrial base experienced a recession-recovery-decline process, and the process presents an inverted 'N' type, the level of resistance to disturbance was low in Liaoning old industrial base, the secondary industry was more vulnerable to shocks and the tertiary industry had relatively high resistance. Liaoning old industrial base had path dependence and institution locking phenomenon, and the structural-system problem was serious. Liaoning’s economic development relied excessively on traditional heavy-chemical industry, and the development of new strategic industries and modern service industry was slow. Aiming at the regular characteristics of the evolution process of the old industrial base, the paper put forward some suggestions for the economic revitalization of Liaoning old industrial base.

Key words: regional economic resilience, resistance, recoverability, Liaoning old industrial base, economic revitalization in Northeast China

中图分类号: 

  • K902