中国省域广播电视业发展水平的空间计量研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.02.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以2008~2014年中国31个省域的统计数据为基础,采用空间计量经济学方法对中国广播电视业发展水平的空间格局及其影响因素进行测算与分析。研究发现,中国省域广播电视业发展水平最高的集聚分布于东部沿海地区,部分东部地区和中部地区发展一般,西北、西南地区发展水平较低,总体呈现从东向西递减的梯度变化,但全国整体发展水平呈现显著上升趋势。经济发展水平、消费需求、财政投入和信息技术水平与中国广播电视产业呈现正相关,而产业结构与广播电视产业呈现负相关,且各省地理空间的邻接上未表现出溢出效应。

关键词: 广播电视业, 发展水平, 探索性数据分析, 空间计量模型

Abstract:

As an integral part of comprehensive strength, the soft power of culture has become an important support for the basic kernel and scientific development of regional competitiveness. Cultural industry is the hard power of cultural construction, and also an important means to enhance the soft power of culture. As the core part of cultural industry, radio and TV industry is also an important part of soft power of regional culture. Through the literature review, it is found that the research on radio and TV industry at home and abroad is mostly concentrated in enterprises, industrial clusters or urban internal scales, and there are few studies based on regional scale. Mainly on the method is based on the traditional measurement method, using spatial econometric methods of research is not much, ignore the spatial correlation effect, and it is not about influence factors and its role in the study of spatial heterogeneity of various areas. Based on this, this paper is based on the statistical data of 31 provinces in China 2008-2014, using factor analysis to comprehensively evaluate the development level and regional differences of provincial radio and TV industry, and combining with the exploratory spatial data analysis（ESDA）and the spatial constant coefficient model, to further analyze the spatial effect and the influencing factors of the development of China's provincial radio and TV industry. The study found that the highest level of development of provincial radio and TV industry in China was distributed in the eastern coastal regions, in which some eastern and central regions developed generally, with low development levels in the northwest and southwest regions, and the overall trend of gradual change from east to west, but the overall development level of the whole country showed a significant upward trend. In addition, the development of radio and television industry in the region has the phenomenon of competition and polarization effect, and the development of radio and television industry in the low-gradient region has the tendency of “polarization” in the high-gradient region.Economic development level, consumer demand, finances, and information technology level is positively related with radio and TV industry in our country, and the industrial structure and the broadcast television industry present negative correlation, and geographic space of the adjacent provinces showed no spillover effect. Because the OLS and SLM models are both “average” or whole domain estimation, the estimated results can only show the national average, but not the differences in the regional influence of each factor. Therefore, on the basis of this article, the spatial variable coefficient model can be used to analyze the local area (Local), to further explore the variation of the influence of each variable on the development level of radio and television industry.

Key words: radio and TV industry, development level, exploratory data analysis, spatial econometric model

中图分类号:

F121.3/K902

方远平, 陈宏洋, 毕斗斗. 中国省域广播电视业发展水平的空间计量研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(2): 214-220.

Yuanping Fang, Hongyang Chen, Doudou Bi. Spatial Econometric Study on the Development Level of Provincial Radio and TV Industry in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(2): 214-220.

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目标层	一级指标	二级指标	单位
广播电视业发展水平	经济效益和劳动规模	广播电视收入X1	亿元
		广播电视从业人员人数X2	人
	生产供给规模	广播综合人口覆盖率X3	%
		电视综合人口覆盖率X4	%
		有线广播电视入户率X5	%
		广播节目播出套数X6	套数
		公共广播节目制作X7	h
		电视节目播出套数X8	套数
		公共电视节目制作X9	h
		电视剧播出部数X10	部
		公共广播节目播出时间X11	h
		公共电视节目播出时间X12	h

年份	Moran’s I指数	P值	Sd.
2008	0.2654	0.0080	0.1104
2009	0.2867	0.0070	0.1134
2010	0.2988	0.0060	0.1162
2011	0.3056	0.0040	0.1125
2012	0.3097	0.0070	0.1133
2013	0.2949	0.0040	0.1158
2014	0.2911	0.0050	0.1126

模型	回归系数	标准差	P值
常量	-3.1599	0.0425	0.0238^**
JJFZSP	0.4297	0.1058	0.0487^**
XFXQ	0.2250	0.1197	0.0820^*
CZTR	0.3478	0.0534	0.0020^***
CYJG	-0.2105	0.0583	0.0011^***
XXJSSP	0.2630	0.0916	0.5028
R²	0.7964	Log L	4.3837
AIC	2.2140	SC	12.6639
空间依赖性检验		统计值	P值
Moran’s I		0.4528	0.4955
LMLAG		3.3784	0.0618^*
R-LMLAG		4.2905	0.0272^**
LMERR		0.0322	0.0882^*
R-LMERR		1.2994	0.1344

模型	回归系数	标准差	P值
常量	-0.0239	0.0258	0.0483
JJFZSP	0.5286	0.0436	0.0375^**
XFXQ	0.2017	0.1284	0.0621^*
CZTR	0.3485	0.0393	0.0020^***
CYJG	-0.2931	0.0526	0.0010^***
XXJSSP	0.0943	0.0697	0.1398
R²	0.8544	Log L	6.8372
AIC	0.8011	SC	14.7229