近40年中美地缘政治关系波动及背景解析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.07.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于GDELT数据利用概率分析和自适应分形分析方法,从合作与冲突的角度分析1979年以来历届美国总统任期内中美态度的差异以及中美态度的持久性。结果分析表明：① 中美地缘政治关系经历3个时期,分别是冷战期、转变期和经贸合作期。这3个时期的特征是中美关系的战略基础历经从联合抗苏到经贸关系转变;② 美国对华的冲突态度在老布什和克林顿时期发展和提高,在小布什时期和奥巴马前期有所缓和,但是在奥巴马后期趋于严重。③ 美国对华整体态度持续性存在约4 a时间尺度,而且主要受冲突态度的影响。在当前特朗普政府时期,中美地缘政治关系的政治和经济要素已经发生重大转变,建议中美关系政策制定者和研究者要重视这种转变,寻求新思维和新途径应对进入新阶段的中美关系。

关键词: 中美关系, 地缘政治关系, 全球事件、语言和语调数据库, 概率分析, 自适应分形分析

Abstract:

China-US relations have always been the most important part of international geopolitical relations. Discovering and analyzing of the attitude of two sides to each other from an international multilateral perspective is of great significance for understanding the internal causes of variations in China-US geopolitical relations. Due to differences in political systems, the analysis of characteristics of the China-US changes from the perspective of the presidency of the U.S. can provide a deeper knowledge of the international geopolitical tendencies. From the time series analysis of China-US relations, we can understand the evolutionary stages of China-US geopolitical relations. An in-depth analysis of the motives of China-US relations changes is of great significance for properly making international geo-strategies. Based on the GDELT data, this paper utilized probability analysis and adaptive fractal analysis methods to analyze the attitudes' differences between China and the U.S. during the US presidential terms since 1979 from the perspectives of cooperation and conflict. Moreover, the persistence of China-US attitudes since the establishment of diplomatic ties was also studied. The results show that: 1) China-US geopolitical relations have experienced three periods: the Cold War period, the transition period and the economic and trade cooperation period. The characteristics of these three periods are that the strategic basis of China-US relations has changed from a joint anti-Soviet to economic and trade relations. 2) The negative attitude of the US toward China developed and improved during the George H.W. Bush and Clinton periods. It eased during the George W. Bush era and the early Obama period, but it became more serious in the later period of Obama. 3) The overall attitude of US toward China persists for about 4 years, and is mainly influenced by negative attitudes. During the current Trump administration, the political and economic factors of China-US geopolitical relations have undergone major transitions. It is recommended that policy-makers and researchers of China-US relations should pay attention to this transformation and seek new thoughts and new pathways to cope with China-US relations in a new stage.

Key words: China-US relations, geopolitical relations, global database of event language and tone, probability analysis, adaptive fractal analysis

中图分类号:

K901.4

沈石,袁丽华,叶思菁,程昌秀,高剑波,宋长青. 近40年中美地缘政治关系波动及背景解析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(7): 1063-1071.

Shen Shi,Yuan Lihua,Ye Sijing,Cheng Changxiu,Gao Jianbo,Song Changqing. The Fluctuation and Background Analysis of Geopolitical Relations Between China and the United States During the Last 40 Years[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(7): 1063-1071.

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