关键词: 现代产业体系, 地区差异, 动态演进, 马尔科夫链

Abstract:

The construction of modern industrial system is the key-point of achieving high-quality economic growth in the new era. Based on the macro background of the construction of modern industrial system and the perspective of synergetics, this article uses the provincial panel data (not including data of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) to construct the quaternity cooperative index system of tangible economy, science and technology innovation, modern finance and human resources. When the quaternity cooperative index in China is systematically measured, the relative and absolute regional differences of the quaternity cooperative index are deeply analyzed by using Dagum-Gini coefficient and nuclear density method, and its dynamic evolution process is predicted scientifically by Markov Chains method. The findings are provided as follows: 1) Coordination of tangible economy, science and technology innovation, modern finance and human resources in our country has maintained a certain growth trend. However, the overall level of quaternity cooperative index is still at a relatively low level, and the growth rate of provinces and cities varies from region to region and within each region. There are obvious spatial differences among the quaternity cooperation, of which the eastern region is the highest, the middle part is the second, and the western part is the lowest. 2) The relative and absolute regional disparity of the quaternity cooperation is all increasing. The difference within eastern region and difference between the eastern region and the western region are the largest, the difference between the western region and the east-central region is the second, and the difference between the central region and the central-west region is the least. The intensity of the transvariation among regions is the main source of regional gap, but with the change of time, the contribution rate of the intensity of the transvariation among regions decreases gradually while the contribution rate of regional disparity increase gradually. 3) The results of Kernel nuclear density show that the center of the distribution curve of the quaternity cooperation gradually moves to the right, and the main peak value gradually decreases, which indicates that the quaternity cooperation of modern industrial system in China is in an increasing trend. However, absolute regional differences show a trend of further expansion. At the same time, the forecast result of Markov indicates that the evolution of the quaternity cooperation degree is the neighboring evolution, and the probability of transition from the low level to the high level is increasing. The overall development is towards a higher level. The conclusions of this article are of great significance for promoting regional coordinated development and the construction of modern industrial system in the new era.

Key words: modern industrial system, regional differences, dynamic evolution, Markov chain