2005~2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.08.001

地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (8): 1199-1207.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.08.001

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2005~2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析

王若宇,黄旭,薛德升,刘晔()

中山大学地理科学与规划学院/广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点试验室, 广东广州 510275

收稿日期:2018-07-18 修回日期:2018-09-05 出版日期:2019-08-10 发布日期:2019-10-10
通讯作者: 刘晔 E-mail:liuye25@mail.sysu.edu.cn
作者简介:王若宇（1994-）,男,广东广州人,博士研究生,主要从事城市地理研究。E-mail: wangry6@mail2.sysu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金国际(地区)交流与合作研究(41320104001);国家自然科学基金项目(41871140);国家自然科学基金项目(41501151);国家自然科学基金项目(41030508);中山大学高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目资助(17lgjc04)

Spatio-temporal Change of Facaulty Members of Higher Education Institute and Its Influential Factors in China in 2005-2015

Wang Ruoyu,Huang Xu,Xue Desheng,Liu Ye()

School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China

Received:2018-07-18 Revised:2018-09-05 Online:2019-08-10 Published:2019-10-10
Contact: Liu Ye E-mail:liuye25@mail.sysu.edu.cn
Supported by:
National Nature Science Foundation of China(41320104001);National Nature Science Foundation of China(41871140);National Nature Science Foundation of China(41501151);National Nature Science Foundation of China(41030508);Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(17lgjc04)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2005~2015年全国统计年鉴数据,采用统计地图法和空间自相关分析,分析中国高校科研人才的时空分布特征（不包括港澳台数据）,并采用面板负二项回归模型,识别高校科研人才空间分布的决定因素。研究结果表明:①中国的高校科研人才分布表现出较强的空间不均衡性,总体趋势为东南密集,西北稀疏,科研人才高度集中在北京、天津、上海;②高校科研人才分布具有一定的空间集聚特征,其热点地区为北京、天津、上海和江苏等沿海省市,冷点地区集中分布在广大的西部地区和黑龙江省。2005~2015年,高级职称人才的空间集聚程度有所减弱,而中初级职称科研人才的空间集聚程度有所加强;③人才政策、高等教育规模和层次、公共服务水平和信息化水平是所有高校科研人才空间分布的主要影响因素。从职称差异的角度来看,薪酬和失业率等经济因素仅对初级职称科研人才的分布有影响,医疗、文化公共服务水平和人才政策仅对中高级职称科研人才的分布有影响,高等教育的规模与层次对各种职称人才的分布均有影响;从地区差异的角度来看,西部地区高校科研人才受到经济因素影响更为明显,而中东部高校科研人才受到公共服务水平影响的更为明显。

关键词: 高校科研人才空间格局, 职称差异, 冷热点分析, 负二项回归模型

Abstract:

Based on the national statistical yearbook data from 2005 to 2015, this article studies the spatial pattern evolvement of the distribution of scientific research talents in China (limited to data, the study area not includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) and its influence mechanism by applying panel negative binomial regression and spatial auto-correlation analysis. The result shows that: 1）The distribution of scientific research talents in China showed great imbalance. Generally speaking, talents agglomerate in the southeast but sparse in the northwest. Scientific research talents are mainly agglomerate in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai; 2） The distribution of scientific research talents has some spatial agglomeration characteristics. Hot spots are the eastern coastal areas, especially Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Jiangsu while the cold point area is concentrated in the western region and Heilongjiang Province. The area of cold points has decreased from 2005 to 2015; 3） Talent policy, the development of universities and the level of public service are the main factors that determines the overall spatial distribution of scientific research talents, but no evidence support that other factors have significant influence. With the increase of professional qualification, the influence of the economic factors on the scientific research talent gets weaker, but the influence of public service level gets stronger. On the other hand, from the perspective of regional differences, compared with the western regions, the scientific research talents working in middle and eastern universities are more likely to be affected by the public service.

Key words: the spatial distribution of scientific research talents, title differences, G_i ^* analysis, negative binomial model

中图分类号:

F812.2

王若宇,黄旭,薛德升,刘晔. 2005~2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(8): 1199-1207.

Wang Ruoyu,Huang Xu,Xue Desheng,Liu Ye. Spatio-temporal Change of Facaulty Members of Higher Education Institute and Its Influential Factors in China in 2005-2015[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(8): 1199-1207.

图/表 3

图1

图2

表1

计量模型估计结果"

	全部样本	分职称样本			分区域样本
	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7
	(所有科研人员)	(高级职称)	(中级职称)	(初级职称)	(东部)	(中部)	(西部)
logW	-0.117(0.085)	-0.341(0.289)	-0.133(0.086)	0.141^**(0.042)	-0.430(0.175)	-0.056(0.053)	0.032^**(0.016)
cost	0.000(0.001)	0.000(0.001)	0.000(0.003)	0.000(0.004)	-0.004(0.003)	0.000(0.000)	0.000(0.000)
unemp	-0.009(0.008)	-0.049(0.012)	-0.012(0.013)	-0.020^**(0.010)	0.007(0.009)	-0.001(0.013)	-0.014(0.020)
logHP	0.013(0.026)	0.027(0.037)	0.076(0.067)	0.005(0.073)	0.079(0.054)	0.001(0.036)	-0.027(0.051)
logPI	0.015^**(0.007)	0.043^**(0.020)	0.081^**(0.035)	0.010(0.061)	0.020^**（0.010）	0.061^**（0.031）	0.027^**（0.010）
logUS	0.486^***(0.030)	0.335^***(0.044)	0.471^***(0.049)	1.302^***(0.083)	0.480^***(0.050)	0.491^***(0.050)	0.664^***(0.065)
college	0.046^**(0.018)	0.051^**(0.023)	0.092^***(0.018)	0.012(0.026)	0.106^**（0.026）	0.093^**（0.048）	0.124（0.096）
logD	0.081^**(0.033)	0.154^**(0.047)	0.106^**(0.045)	0.265(0.237)	0.004(0.041)	0.381^***(0.049)	0.051(0.078)
st	-0.001(0.002)	0.002(0.004)	-0.006(0.004)	0.022(0.013)	-0.005(0.004)	0.001(0.003)	0.007(0.006)
logAG	0.022^***(0.008)	0.029^**(0.012)	-0.015(0.010)	0.005(0.022)	0.013^**(0.006)	0.002(0.010)	0.034(0.028)
logIM	0.068^***(0.015)	0.002(0.021)	0.097(0.066)	0.130^***(0.042)	0.061（0.050）	0.056^**（0.028）	0.021（0.032）
logSE	-0.020(0.027)	-0.053(0.047)	-0.149(0.127)	-0.002^**(0.001)	-0.034(0.025)	-0.084(0.060)	-0.034(0.026)
常数	5.951^***(0.383)	6.994^***(0.539)	4.154^***(0.687)	-1.589(1.066)	7.737^***(0.915)	4.801^***(0.702)	3.973(1.031)
时点固定效应	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Log likelihood	-3169.855	-2795.028	-2828.415	-2821.975	-1141.646	-788.258	-1144.396
AIC	6389.711	5640.056	5706.830	5693.949	2333.291	1626.515	2338.793
样本数	341	341	341	341	121	88	132

表1

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2005~2015年中国高校科研人才的时空变化及影响因素分析

Spatio-temporal Change of Facaulty Members of Higher Education Institute and Its Influential Factors in China in 2005-2015

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