关键词: 城市扩展模拟, 城市空间结构, 城市组团, 多阶景观扩张指数, 元胞自动机模型

Abstract:

The urban spatial structure and its evolution have a deep impact on the development of urban spatial pattern. The traditional urban expansion simulation ignores the important influence of urban spatial structure information. This study uses Multi-order Landscape Expansion Index (MLEI), which measures spatial adjacency of new patch to identify characteristics of urban cluster, and puts such information into MLEI-CA Model. This paper uses MLEI-CA Model to simulate the urban expansion of Wuhan, based on the remote sensing image data of 1990, 2000 and 2013. Meanwhile, this paper verifies the applicability of such method by comparing with Logistic-CA model. The result shows that the MLEI-CA model can reveal the spatial evolution of urban expansion more accurately and has a better simulation accuracy than Logistic-CA model, especially in the Kappa coefficient and urban land use accuracy. The accuracy of MLEI-CA model increases by 6% and 4% respectively. The MLEI-CA model puts the information of urban spatial structure into consideration from the perspective of city expansion cluster. Furthermore, it provides new ideas for simulation of urban expansion. The simulation results can provide reference for urban planning and urban expansion effect analysis. In addition, the research model mentioned in this paper can provide new theoretical references and technical support for urban expansion simulation. However, deficiencies still exist in this study. For example, if an intelligent algorithm was considered into the model, a more realistic result might be gotten; This article use MLEI-CA model to simulate urban space form only on the basis of current situation. In practice, different situation can get different scenarios of urban space form. The MLEI-CA model needs more deep research in different cities.

Key words: urban expansion simulation, urban space structure, urban cluster, Multi-order Landscape Expansion Index, Cellular Automata model