东北三省城乡协调发展格局及影响因素

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.08.012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以东北三省36个地区为研究对象,系统构建了城乡协调的指标体系,采用基尼系数、空间自相关和空间回归等方法探讨了2005年、2010年和2015年东北三省城乡协调的空间格局和影响机制。研究表明:① 东北三省城乡协调度的区域差异不断扩大且具有明显的空间集聚特征,但集聚程度趋于减弱。② 不同地区城乡协调水平变化各异。研究期内,大连市和锦州市一直处于高水平城乡协调状态,朝阳市长期处于低水平城乡协调状态。鹤岗市和七台河市城乡协调度位次上升最明显,哈尔滨市和辽源市城乡协调度位次下降最显著。③ 从空间格局来看,中级城乡协调区增多且向北移动,初级城乡协调区减少且向中部集中,“南北高,中间低”的城乡协调格局基本形成。与此同时,城乡协调的冷热点均不断收缩,空间极化效应趋于减弱。④ 城镇化和农业规模化经营是促进东北城乡协调发展的主要力量,工业化并未显著促进东北城乡协调发展且与城乡协调发展负相关,农业现代化经营对城乡协调发展有正向作用,交通因素在近些年的促进作用逐渐凸显,经济发展水平与信息化水平对东北城乡协调发展的作用还不明显。

关键词: 城乡协调度, 城乡经济协调, 城乡社会协调, 城乡公共服务协调, 城乡要素协调, 东北三省

Abstract:

Coordinating urban-rural coordinated development is an important foundation for achieving economic sustainable development of region. This paper selects 36 prefecture-level units in Northeast China as samples and constructed systematic index system to evaluate the level of urban-rural coordinated development. Then, the paper uses Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression to research the spatial pattern and influence mechanism of urban-rural coordinated development in Northeast China in 2005, 2010 and 2015. The result shown that: 1) The regional difference of urban-rural coordination degree in Northeast China has shown an expanding trend, and the phenomenon of spatial agglomeration is obvious, but the intensity of spatial agglomeration is declining. 2) The level of urban-rural coordination varies diferent in different regions. During the study period, Dalian and Jinzhou have always been high level of urban-rural coordinated area, and Chaoyang has always been a low level of urban-rural coordinated area. Hegang and Qitaihe were the most obvious upward cities of urban-rural coordination order, while Harbin and Liaoyuan declined most significantly. 3) From the perspective of spatial pattern, intermediate urban-rural coordination areas increased and moved northward, while primary urban-rural coordination areas decreased and concentrated in the middle. Then, formed a "north-south high, middle low" urban-rural coordination pattern. At the same time, the cold and hot spots of urban-rural coordination are shrinking, and the spatial polarization effect tends to weaken. 4) Urbanization and large-scale agricultural management have a positive effect on urban-rural coordinated development, industrialization does not significantly promote the urban-rural coordination in northeast China and is negatively related to the urban-rural coordination, agricultural modernization plays a positive role in the urban-rural coordinated development. In recent years, transportation gradually plays an positive role in urban-rural coordinated development. Economic development level and informatization level in the urban-rural coordinated development in northeast China are not obvious.

Key words: uban-rural coordination, urban-rural economic coordination, urban-rural society coordination, urban-rural public service coordination, urban-rural material coordination, the Northeastern China

中图分类号:

K921

黄禹铭. 东北三省城乡协调发展格局及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(8): 1302-1311.

Huang Yuming. Spatial Pattern of Urban-rural Coordination Development in Northeast China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(8): 1302-1311.

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目标层	准则层	指标层
城乡协调度	城乡经济协调	（二三产业产值/二三产业从业人员数）/（第一产业产值/第一产业从业人员数）（-）
	城乡社会协调	城市居民人均可支配收入/农村居民人均纯收入（-）
		城市居民人均消费性支出/农村居民人均生活消费支出（-）
		城镇居民消费恩格尔系数/农村居民消费恩格尔系数（+）
	城乡公共服务协调	城镇居民每万人拥有社区医疗卫生人员数/乡村居民每万人拥有村医疗卫生人员数（-）城镇居民人均用电量/乡村居民人均用电量（-）
	城乡要素协调	城市人均固定资产投资/乡村人均固定资产投资（-）
	城乡要素协调	地方财政农林水利事物支出比重/区域第一产业比重（+）

	2005年			2010年			2015年
	基尼系数	Moran’s I	Zscore	基尼系数	Moran’s I	Zscore	基尼系数	Moran’s I	Zscore
城乡经济协调	0.077	0.010	0.924	0.093	0.132^***	3.004	0.124	0.110^***	2.596
城乡社会协调	0.113	0.232^***	4.911	0.070	0.048	1.382	0.118	0.226^***	4.622
城乡公共服务协调	0.267	0.629^***	11.829	0.311	0.494^***	9.402	0.198	0.077^*	1.929
城乡要素协调	0.076	0.126^***	3.170	0.099	-0.025	0.083	0.273	0.210^***	4.335
城乡协调度	0.067	0.580^***	11.007	0.076	0.313^***	6.184	0.102	0.274^***	5.537

变量	2005年		2010年		2015年
变量	SLM	SEM	SLM	SEM	SLM	SEM
常数项	-1.537	-0.246	5.634	4.436	6.598^***	7.749^***
lnPG	-0.032	0.017	0.085	0.148	-0.172	-0.234^**
lnUR	0.060^*	0.008	0.209^**	0.066^*	0.572^***	0.773^***
lnID	0.368	0.113	-1.218^**	-1.707^***	-0.804^***	-0.903^**
lnAG	0.058^*	0.016^*	0.263^***	0.257^***	0.074^**	0.074^*
lnJX	0.108^*	0.102^*	0.050	0.023	0.019	0.023^*
lnTR	-0.005	-0.036	-0.033	-0.052^**	0.349^***	0.399^***
lnPY	-0.051	0.004	0.018	-0.040	-0.055	-0.048
lnPD	-0.010	-0.056	-0.147	0.160	-0.071	-0.084
R²	0.480	0.567	0.412	0.434	0.726	0.721
AIC	-5.702	-10.798	-6.82	-8.773	-18.771	-19.571
SC	10.133	3.454	9.354	5.478	-2.935	-5.319
logL	12.851	14.399	13.241	13.387	19.385	18.785
空间滞后项	0.591^***	—	0.154	—	0.267^*	—
空间误差项	—	0.772^***	—	-0.418	—	-0.393