基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.10.015

地理科学 ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (10): 1663-1671.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2019.10.015

基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例

刘大庆¹, 李长军¹, 张宏^2,³(), 顾雨濛², 刘海涛⁴, 陈姮⁵

^1. 中国人民解放军海军潜艇学院,山东青岛 266000
^2. 中国人民解放军信息工程大学地理空间信息学院,河南郑州 450002
^3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
^4. 中国人民解放军92667部队,山东青岛 266000
^5. 中国人民解放军91206部队,山东青岛 266000

收稿日期:2018-09-19 修回日期:2018-12-25 出版日期:2019-10-10 发布日期:2019-10-10
通讯作者: 张宏 E-mail:zhanghong@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:刘大庆(1984-),男,山东莱阳人,讲师,博士,主要从事地缘政治学与军事地理学研究。 E-mail:liudaqing2007@163.com
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）基金(XDA19040501);国家自然科学基金(41690145)

Geopolitical Game between Great Powers Based on Geopolitics Influence Model: A Case Study of Game Between China and America on the Diaoyu Islands Issue

Liu Daqing¹, Li Changjun¹, Zhang Hong^2,³(), Gu Yumeng², Liu Haitao⁴, Chen Heng⁵

^1. Navy Submarine Academy, Chinese People's Liberation Army, Qingdao 266000, Shandong, China
^2. College of Geographic Information, Information and Engineering University, Chinese People's Liberation Army, Zhengzhou 450002, Henan, China
^3. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
^4. 92667 Chinese People's Liberation Army Troops, Qingdao 266000, Shandong, China
^5. 91206 Chinese People's Liberation Army Troops, Qingdao 266000, Shandong, China

Received:2018-09-19 Revised:2018-12-25 Online:2019-10-10 Published:2019-10-10
Contact: Zhang Hong E-mail:zhanghong@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040501);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41690145)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

大国地缘政治博弈事关国家安全,影响世界格局。通过对地理要素的综合考量构建了地缘影响力模型,并基于博弈论建立了钓鱼岛问题大国地缘政治博弈树,对中美博弈过程进行了分析。最后针对钓鱼岛问题4种博弈走势提出了战略应对参考建议。研究结果表明：①在中国大陆主导时,各国保持合作将共赢,一旦动武,若美俄地缘战略决策指数不高,形势对中国大陆不利。②当美国地缘战略决策指数较小,俄罗斯较大时,是解决钓鱼岛问题的战略良机。③中国台湾是中国解决钓鱼岛问题的重要影响因素,要灵活把握与处理。④ 在4种战略博弈形势下,均存在中美战略博弈的纳什均衡,但美国、日本和中国台湾有一定概率铤而走险,要保持警惕并做好战略应对。⑤ 博弈分析结果较为客观的反映了钓鱼岛问题的多种战略走向,并与当前相关大国关于钓鱼岛问题的战略基本吻合,印证了地缘影响力模型对地理要素量化的可行性以及大国地缘政治博弈分析方法的合理性。

关键词: 地缘政治, 大国博弈, 地缘影响力模型, 博弈论, 钓鱼岛

Abstract:

Geopolitical game of superpowers affects not only national security but also the world pattern. First, the paper constructs a Geopolitical Affect Model on account of considering overall geographical factors. Next, we establish a Geopolitical Game Tree of superpowers on The Diaoyu Island issue based on Game Theory. Then, the game process between China and the US was analysed. Finally, we put forward some strategic responses to the four game trends of the Diaoyu Island issue. The research results show that, 1) When Mainland China dominance, all countries will to be win-win. In the event of war, if the Geostrategic Decision-Making Index of U.S. and Russia is not high, the situation adverse to Mainland China. 2) When the American Geostrategic Decision-Making Index is small but Russian is large, it is a strategic opportunity to solve the Diaoyu Island issue. 3) China need to be flexible in handling Taiwan history problem in that it is the key factor to resolve the Diaoyu Islands issue for China. 4) There is a Nash equilibrium of the strategic game between Mainland China, US and Taiwan, China in the four game situations. However, Mainland China should remain vigilant for US, Japan and Taiwan, China will take risks possible. 5) The game analysis results objectively reflect the various strategic trends and basically coincide with the current strategy of superpowers on the Diaoyu Island issue, confirming the feasibility of the Geopolitics Affect Model to quantify the geographical elements and the rationality of the Geopolitical Game Analysis Method of superpowers.

Key words: geopolitics, superpower games, Geopolitics Affect Model, Game Theory, the Diaoyu Islands

中图分类号:

K901.4

刘大庆, 李长军, 张宏, 顾雨濛, 刘海涛, 陈姮. 基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(10): 1663-1671.

Liu Daqing, Li Changjun, Zhang Hong, Gu Yumeng, Liu Haitao, Chen Heng. Geopolitical Game between Great Powers Based on Geopolitics Influence Model: A Case Study of Game Between China and America on the Diaoyu Islands Issue[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2019, 39(10): 1663-1671.

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利益类别	H	利益范围
核心利益	1	领土主权、统一和独立等
重要利益	(0.5,1)	经济发展、意识形态等
一般利益	(0,0.5]	科技研究、文化交流等
完全无关利益	0	不涉及国家利益

指标	中国	美国	俄罗斯	日本
GDP(亿美元)	73185	150940	18578	58672
受教育年限（a）	7.5	12.4	9.8	11.6
人口比重（15~64岁）（%）	72.4	66.9	72.2	64
商业能源（10⁴t）	272773	219119	73097	46147
农业种植面积（10⁴hm²）	10652	15511	11975	425
淡水资源(10⁸m³)	28401.47	28622.84	43136.78	4308.71
资本形成总额（亿美元）	34396.95	28678.60	4644.50	11734.40
股票（亿美元）	76697.88	307464.78	11462.63	41598.45
外国直接投资（亿美元）	1239.85	2269.37	528.78	-17.58
科技论文（篇）	351463	409370	33616	104795
专利申请数量（件）	415829	247750	26495	287580
互联网用户数（亿）	5.1480	2.1718	0.6955	1.0110
研发的支出(亿美元)	1310.01	4181.04	202.50	1983.11
财政支出(亿美元)	9722.70	38865.00	4097.40	11874.68
军费支出(亿美元)	933	7110	641	593
军事人员（万）	230.0	140.0	124.0	27.4
货物、服务进口(亿美元)	17125.29	26112.62	4031.43	9387.52
货物、服务出口(亿美元)	18662.18	20527.84	5629.13	8859.47

	中国	美国	俄罗斯	日本
经济资源	10.46	21.56	2.65	8.38
人力资源	10.21	3.62	1.40	1.33
自然资源	5.79	5.70	4.00	0.80
资本资源	6.78	12.19	1.30	2.22
知识资源	21.61	19.30	2.03	10.80
政府资源	3.01	12.02	1.27	3.67
军事资源	5.37	14.56	3.13	1.47
国际资源	4.88	6.35	1.32	2.49
综合国力	68.09	95.30	17.10	31.16

国家	美国	日本	中国	俄罗斯
国家地缘影响力	45.7	29.9	65.7	14.0
地缘利益集团地缘影响力	75.6		72.7

基于地缘影响力模型的大国地缘政治博弈——以钓鱼岛问题背景下的中美博弈为例

Geopolitical Game between Great Powers Based on Geopolitics Influence Model: A Case Study of Game Between China and America on the Diaoyu Islands Issue

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